自1978年改革开放以来，中国的经济发展突飞猛进，综合国力显著提升，居民收入稳步增长，人民生活不断改善，但与此同时收入分配结构失衡、城乡收入差距过大、居民消费不足等问题日益突出，严重制约了国民经济的健康可持续发展。与以往学者多围绕人口结构、流动性约束、消费文化与习惯、家庭预防性储蓄等视角研究居民消费不足的原因不同,本文重点考察实际利率对中国居民消费的间接影响及其具体作用机制。因为中国金融抑制下的利率管制政策使得实际利率长期处于低估状态，所以本文在低实际利率背景下研究利率对居民消费的影响具有一定的理论价值和现实意义。 本文的目的在于研究实际利率通过国民收入分配、金融市场与房地产价格三种传导路径影响居民消费的作用机制和实际效果。具体从理论和实证分析两个方面展开研究：首先，理论分析部分主要分为两个阶段：第一阶段分析利率对收入分配结构、金融市场和房地产价格的影响，第二阶段分析收入分配结构、金融市场“倒挂机制”和房地产价格对居民消费的影响。其次，在实证部分引入居民可支配收入占国民总收入比重、住宅商品房平均销售价格指数对数值和城乡居民收入比三个代理变量，依据中国1992-2014年的时间序列数据，采用单位根检验、协整检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法，定量分析实际利率对居民消费率影响机制的客观存在性和现实有效性。研究结果表明： （1）低利率政策是中国居民消费率偏低的重要原因，实际利率的波动能够很好地解释2000年后居民消费率持续下滑的趋势。实际利率下降，使得房地产价格迅速上涨，对居民消费的挤压效应明显，同时国民收入分配也由居民向政府和企业倾斜，居民收入份额减少，可支配收入占比下降，加之居民收入差距扩大，消费能力和消费需求降低，最终导致整体的居民消费率下降。 （2）实际利率影响居民消费的国民收入分配传导路径、金融市场传导路径和房地产价格传导路径是客观存在且有效的，并且影响机制中蕴涵的因果关系能够得到统计意义上的支持。 （3）样本期内，实际利率影响中国居民消费的金融市场传导路径的作用相当有限，而实际利率的国民收入分配传导路径和房地产价格传导路径对居民消费的影响在长短期内都显著有效。居民可支配收入占国民总收入比重、住宅商品房平均销售价格指数对数值与居民消费率存在长期均衡关系，在短期波动中，居民消费率受居民可支配收入占国民总收入比重和住宅商品房平均销售价格指数对数值的影响同样显著，当居民可支配收入占国民总收入比重增加1个单位时，居民消费率将提高0.44个单位，当住宅商品房平均销售价格指数对数值增加1个单位时，居民消费率将降低2.38个单位。 最后，本文在理论分析和实证研究基础上对切实改善中国居民消费不足的现状提出三点政策建议：第一，持续推动利率市场化改革，让利率真实反映资本回报；第二，加强房地产市场宏观调控，抑制房地产价格的恶性上涨；第三，改善国民收入分配结构，提高住户部门的收入占比。

Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China’s economic development has developed rapidly, the overall national strength has been greatly improved, the income of the residents is growing steadily, and the people's lives are constantly improving. At the same time, the imbalance of the structure of income distribution, the large gap between urban and rural income and the insufficient consumption of the residents, seriously restricts the healthy and continuous development of the national economy. This paper focuses on the indirect effects of real interest rates on the consumption of residents and the specific mechanism of its impact on the consumption of residents in the perspective of the previous scholars, focusing on the reasons of the population structure, liquidity constraints, consumption culture and habits, and family preventive savings. Because the interest rate control policy under the financial restraining of China makes the real interest rate underestimate for a long time, this paper has a certain theoretical and practical significance to study the effect of interest rate on the consumption of residents under the background of low real interest rate. The purpose of this paper is to study the effect mechanism and actual effect of real interest rate on the consumption rate of residents through three conductive paths of national income distribution, financial market and real estate price. This paper studies from two aspects: theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. Firstly, the theoretical analysis part is divided into two stages: The first stage analyzes the impact of interest rate on income distribution structure, financial market and real estate price. The second stage analyzes the impact of income distribution structure, financial market "upside down mechanism" and real estate price on household consumption. Secondly, the empirical part introduces three proxy variables, such as the percentage of disposable income of residents in total national income, the average sales price index of residential housing, and the income ratio of urban and rural residents. According to the time series data of 1992 -2014 in China, the methods of the unit root test, cointegration theory, error correction model and Grainger causality test are used to quantitatively analyze the objective existence and practical effectiveness of the real interest rate impact on the household consumption rate. The results of the study show that: (1) Low interest rate policy is an important reason for the low consumption rate of residents in China. The fluctuation of real interest rate can explain the trend of the continuous decline in the consumption rate of residents after 2000. The decline in real interest rates makes the real estate price rise rapidly and the crowding out effect on residents' consumption is significant. At the same time, the distribution of national income is also from residents to government and enterprises, the share of residents' income is reduced, the proportion of disposable income is reduced, the income gap of residents is widening, consumption ability and consumption demand is reduced, eventually leading to the whole consumption rate of residents declined. (2) The conduction path of the national income distribution, the conduction path of the financial market and the conduction path of the real estate price are objective and effective, and the causal relationship in the mechanism can be supported by the statistical significance. (3) In the sample period, the impact of real interest rate through the financial market conduction path on China's resident consumer products is quite limited, and the impact of real interest rates on the resident consumption through the national income distribution conduction path and real estate price conduction path is significant in the short and long term. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the percentage of disposable income of residents in total national income, the average sales price index of residential real estate, and the resident consumption rate. In the short-term fluctuations, the percentage of disposable income of residents in total national income and the average sales price index of residential real estate also have a significant effect on the resident consumption rate. When the percentage of disposable income of residents in total national income increases by 1 unit, the resident consumption rate will increase by 0.44 units. When the average sales price index of residential real estate increases by 1 unit, the resident consumption rate will decrease by 2.38 units. Finally, based on theoretical analysis and empirical research results, this paper puts forward three policy recommendations for improving the current situation of insufficient consumption of Chinese residents: first, promote the reform of interest rate marketization and let the interest rate truly reflect the capital return; second, strengthen macro regulation and control of the real estate market, and restrain the vicious rise of real estate price; third, improve the national income distribution structure and increase the income of the household sector.