近年来，圈养大熊猫种群规模发展迅速，种群数量持续上升，截至2022年底，圈养大熊猫种群数量达到698只。迁地保护的最终目标是复壮野生种群。然而，为实现该终极目标，究竟需要维持多大的圈养种群，目前尚缺少准确的答案。为此，本研究基于2019年的大熊猫国际谱系，对圈养大熊猫种群进行统计学及遗传学分析，预测种群数量的发展趋势，评估种群的遗传状况，进而为圈养大熊猫种群的数量调节及遗传管理提供切实的建议。本研究的结果表明，圈养大熊猫的种群数量已超过目标种群规模，需要及时控制数量，将繁育重点转向提高种群的遗传多样性，在配对繁殖工作中做到“优生优育、质量为主”。

In recent years, the size of the captive giant panda population has grown rapidly, and the population has continued to rise. By the end of 2022, there were 698 pandas in captivity. The ultimate goal of ex situ conservation is to rehabilitate wild population. However, it is not clear how large a captive population needs to be to achieve this ultimate goal. Therefore, based on the 2019 International Studbook For Giant Panda, this study conducted statistical and genetic analysis of captive giant panda population. To predict the development trend of the population and evaluate the genetic status of the population, so as to provide practical suggestions for the population regulation and genetic management of captive giant pandas. The results of this study show that the population of captive giant pandas has exceeded the target population size. So it is necessary to control the population in time and shift the focus of breeding to improve the genetic quality. In the pairing and breeding work of the population, "good birth and good breeding, quality first" should be achieved.