出口经济作为我国经济结构的重要组成部分，不仅可以促进就业规模扩大和就业结构调整，还能促进国内消费和国家经济增长。为了拉动出口经济发展，我国出台了出口退税政策以保障我国商品的国际竞争力，同时让企业可以将更多的资金投入到技术研发和高质量发展，以形成一个良性循环。但有不法分子利用出口退税管理上的漏洞，从事骗取出口退税款的违法行为，给税务机关的出口退税管理工作带来了挑战，给国家造成了重大的税收损失。因此，出口退税的风险管理对于营造良好的营商环境，维护公平的税收秩序极为重要。
目前国内外的学者针对出口退税风险管理的研究主要从宏观经济、政策制定角度出发，侧重于理论研究、顶层设计，缺乏基层管理角度的指导，且对于具体行业的出口退税风险及其管理的研究还不够深入。本文从基层税务机关的角度出发，以整体性治理理论和风险管理理论为支撑，通过案例分析法、实地调查法、访谈法对三个具有家具行业代表性的出口骗税案例进行原因分析，并提出相应的风险管理对策。以下为主要研究工作：
一是介绍Z市S区出口退税管理概况，并针对Z市S区家具制造业做问卷调查并分析出家具制造业出口退税管理存在的主要风险。
二是筛选出Z市S区家具制造业的三个代表性案例。通过案例分析法、实地调查法、访谈法综合分析了家具企业的骗税手法，并从企业视角，结合采购、生产、销售三个环节展开问题剖析，然后基于整体性治理理论和风险管理理论分析了出口退税风险原因。
三是从优化出口退税制度设计、夯实出口退税管理的组织结构、加强部门协同管理、强化信息技术支撑四个方面提出对策，为家具制造企业的出口退税风险管理工作提供了参考价值。

As an important part of Chinese economic structure, export economy can not only promote the expansion of employment scale and the adjustment of employment structure, but also promote domestic consumption and national economic growth. In order to promote the development of export economy, China has introduced an export rebate policy to ensure the international competitiveness of China 's goods, and at the same time allow enterprises to invest more funds in technology research and development and high-quality development to form a virtuous circle. However, some criminals use the loopholes in the management of export rebates to defraud the amount of export rebates, which brings challenges to the management of export rebates by tax authorities and causes significant tax losses to the country. Therefore, the risk management of export rebates is extremely important for creating a good business environment and maintaining a fair tax order.
At present, domestic and foreign scholars ' research on export rebate risk management is mainly from the perspective of macroeconomic and policy formulation, focusing on theoretical research and top-level design, lacking guidance from the perspective of grass-roots management, and the research on export rebate risk and its management in specific industries is not deep enough. From the perspective of grassroots tax authorities, supported by holistic governance theory and risk management theory, this paper analyzes the causes of three representative export tax fraud cases in furniture industry through case analysis, field investigation and interview, and puts forward corresponding risk management countermeasures. The following is the main research work :
Firstly, it introduces the general situation of export rebate management in S district of Z city, and makes a questionnaire survey on furniture manufacturing industry in S district of Z city and analyzes the main risks of export rebate management in furniture manufacturing industry.
The second is to screen out three representative cases of furniture manufacturing industry in S district of Z city. Through case analysis, field investigation and interview, this paper comprehensively analyzes the tax fraud methods of furniture enterprises, and analyzes the problems from the perspective of enterprises, combined with the three links of procurement, production and sales, and then analyzes the causes of export rebate risk based on holistic governance theory and risk management theory.
Thirdly, based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward countermeasures from four aspects: optimizing the design of export rebate system, consolidating the organizational structure of export rebate management, strengthening departmental collaborative management and strengthening information technology support, which provides reference value for the export rebate risk management of furniture manufacturing enterprises.