2021年10月，国家体育总局发布《“十四五”体育发展规划》（体发〔2021〕2号），提出“建立和完善国家体育产业基地动态管理机制，充分发挥示范、辐射、带动作用，推动产业基地规范、健康、高质量发展。”新发展阶段，作为体育产业发展排头兵的国家体育产业示范基地，亟需发挥产业集聚效应与示范效应，推动区域经济高质量发展。党的二十大报告提出“着力提高全要素生产率”，推动国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展是提高区域全要素生产率的重要抓手。因此，研究国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展对区域全要素生产率的影响及其传导机制，有助于深入探究二者间的关系，助推区域经济高质量发展。

       首先，采用多期双重差分法，实证检验获批国家体育产业示范基地是否会影响区域经济增长，以明晰获批示范基地的经济效应。其次，使用德尔菲法、层次分析法、DEA-Malmquist指数法等方法，测量2016-2020年各示范基地的高质量发展指数和区域全要素生产率。采用固定效应模型、工具变量法等方法，探究国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展对区域全要素生产率的影响，并从地理区位、区域规模、主营业态、人力资本积累水平等方面进行异质性分析。第三，结合逐步回归检验法与Bootstrap法，从服务业集聚与制造业集聚两个方面，探寻示范基地高质量发展影响区域全要素生产率的作用机制。最后，为推进示范基地高质量发展，释放示范基地经济效应与集聚效应，提高区域全要素生产率，提出针对性的发展建议。主要研究内容和结论如下：

      （1）实证检验获批国家体育产业示范基地对区域经济增长的影响。研究发现：一是获批国家体育产业示范基地对其所在区域GDP有显著正向影响，获批示范基地能够促进区域经济增长。二是获批示范基地产生的经济促进作用存在时滞效应，示范基地获批三年后的经济增长效应更为显著。三是获批示范基地能够通过提高劳动力和人才就业水平来促进区域经济增长，其作用机制为：获批示范基地——劳动力与人才就业增长——区域经济增长。

      （2）结合新发展理念构建国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展指标体系，探究示范基地高质量发展的演进特征，并测度示范基地所在区域全要素生产率的演变趋势。研究发现：一是国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展水平逐年上升，但同时存在梯队差异。根据示范基地高质量发展综合指数，示范基地可分为五个梯队。第一梯队（1.50及以上）3个示范基地，第二梯队（1.00-1.49）6个示范基地，第三梯队（0.80-0.99）22个示范基地，第四梯队（0.50-0.79）20个示范基地，第五梯队（0.50以下）6个示范基地，各梯队之间受产业发展基础、创新发展水平、协调发展水平等因素影响，高质量发展水平差异显著。二是区域全要素生产率指数呈波动型增长，且存在区域异质性。区域全要素生产率年均增长率为3.69%，其受技术进步的影响程度远高于效率变化及其分解项，四个地区全要素生产率均呈增长趋势，但不同地区的发展趋势存在细微差别，其中中部地区与东北地区呈波动式上升，东部地区与西部地区上升趋势较平稳。

      （3）实证检验国家体育产业示范基地对区域全要素生产率的影响，并根据不同地理区位、区域规模、主营业态及人力资本积累水平，分类检验作用效果的异质性。研究发现：一是示范基地高质量发展对区域全要素生产率存在显著促进作用，对效率变化及其拆分项也存在显著促进作用。二是示范基地高质量发展对区域全要素生产率的影响还存在显著异质性，促进作用主要发生在东部地区、小规模区域、人力资本积累水平较低的示范基地。

      （4）采用中介效应模型检验国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展影响区域全要素生产率的传导机制。研究发现：一是示范基地高质量发展通过促进服务业集聚来提高区域全要素生产率，服务业集聚的中介效应占总效应比重为55.20%。二是示范基地高质量发展通过高端制造业集聚促进了区域全要素生产率水平的提高，制造业集聚的中介效应占总效应比重为52.80%。分析认为，示范基地高质量发展促进区域全要素生产率增长的作用机制为：示范基地高质量发展——提高服务业集聚度或降低制造业集聚度——促进区域全要素生产率增长。

       研究显示，国家体育产业示范基地的经济效应突出，其高质量发展能够促进区域全要素生产率增长，并通过服务业集聚与制造业集聚发挥部分中介作用。为推动国家体育产业示范基地高质量发展，充分释放其经济效应，本研究提出如下发展建议：加强政策引领，助推基地多元业态融合；加强创新驱动，促进基地产业转型升级；加强要素支撑，释放基地产业发展潜力。

        In October 2021, the State General Administration of Sport issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for Sports Development, proposing to "establish and improve the dynamic management mechanism of National Sports Industry Bases, give full play to the role of demonstration, radiation and driving, and promote the standardized, healthy and high-quality development of industry bases". In the new development stage, the National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases, as the vanguard of the development of sports industry, needs to give full play to industrial agglomeration effect and demonstration effect to promote the high-quality development of regional economy. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to "focus on improving the total factor productivity", and promoting the high-quality development of National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases is an important starting point to improve the regional total factor productivity. Therefore, the research on the impact of high-quality development of National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases on regional total factor productivity and its transmission mechanism is helpful to further explore the relationship between the two and boost the high-quality development of regional economy.

        Firstly, the multi-period differential method was used to empirically test whether the approved National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases would affect regional economic growth, so as to clarify the economic effects of the approved demonstration bases. Secondly, Delphi method, analytic hierarchy process, DEA-Malmquist index method and other methods were used to measure the high-quality development index and regional total factor productivity of each demonstration base during 2016-2020. The fixed effect model and instrumental variable method were adopted to explore the influence of high-quality development of National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases on regional total factor productivity, and the heterogeneity analysis was carried out from geographical location, regional scale, main business type, human capital accumulation level and other aspects. Thirdly, combining the stepwise regression test method and Bootstrap method, this research explores the effect mechanism of high-quality development of demonstration bases on regional total factor productivity from two aspects of service agglomeration and manufacturing agglomeration. Finally, in order to promote the high-quality development of the demonstration base, release the economic effect and agglomeration effect of the demonstration bases, and improve the regional total factor productivity, the research puts forward specific development suggestions. Specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:

        (1) Empirical study on the influence of approved National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases on regional economic growth. The findings are as follows: first, the approved National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases have a significant positive impact on the regional GDP, and the approved demonstration bases can promote regional economic growth. Second, the economic promotion effect of the approved demonstration bases also has a time lag effect. The economic growth effects of the demonstration bases are more significant three years after the approval. Third, the approved demonstration bases can promote regional economic growth by improving the employment level of labor force and talents. The analysis believes that the mechanism of the demonstration bases to promote regional economic growth is as follows: the approved demonstration base is approved -- the employment growth of labor force and talents -- the regional economic growth.

        (2) The high-quality development indicator system of National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases is constructed based on the new development concepts, the evolution characteristics of high-quality development of demonstration bases are explored, and the evolution trend of total factor productivity in the regions where the demonstration bases are located is measured. The findings are as follows: first, the high-quality development level of the National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases increases year by year, but there are differences in echelons at the same time. According to the comprehensive Index of high-quality development of the demonstration base, the demonstration bases can be divided into five echelons. The first tier (1.50 and above) 3 demonstration bases, the second tier (1.00-1.49) 6 demonstration bases, the third tier (0.80-0.99) 22 demonstration bases, the fourth tier (0.50-0.79) 20 demonstration bases, the fifth tier (below 0.50) 6 demonstration bases. Affected by factors such as industrial development basis, innovative development level and coordinated development level, there are significant differences in the level of high-quality development among the echelons. Second, the regional total factor productivity index showed a fluctuation growth and regional heterogeneity. The average annual growth rate of regional total factor productivity is 3.69%, and the degree of influence of technological progress is much higher than that of efficiency change and its decomposition. The total factor productivity of the four regions shows an increasing trend, but the development trend of different regions is slightly different, among which the Central region and Northeast region show a fluctuating rise, while the Eastern region and Western region show a stable rise.

        (3) The impact of National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases on regional total factor productivity was empirically tested, and the heterogeneity of effect was classified according to different geographical location, regional scale, main business type and human capital accumulation level. The findings are as follows: first, the high-quality development of the demonstration bases have significant promoting effects on the regional total factor productivity, and also have significant promoting effects on the efficiency change and its component. Second, the impact of high-quality development of demonstration bases on regional total factor productivity is significantly heterogeneous, and the promoting effect mainly occurs in the eastern region, small-scale regions and demonstration bases with low human capital accumulation level.

        (4) The mediation effect model is used to test the transmission mechanism of high-quality development of National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases affecting regional total factor productivity. The findings are as follows: First, the high-quality development of the demonstration bases can improve the regional total factor productivity by promoting the agglomeration of service industry, and the intermediary effect of service industry agglomeration accounts for 55.20% of the total effect. Second, the high-quality development of the demonstration bases promoted the improvement of the regional total factor productivity through the agglomeration of high-end manufacturing industry, and the intermediary effect of the agglomeration of manufacturing industry accounted for 52.80% of the total effect. It is concluded that the mechanism of high-quality development of demonstration bases to promote regional total factor productivity growth is as follows: high-quality development of demonstration bases to improve the agglomeration degree of service industry or reduce the agglomeration degree of manufacturing industry to promote regional total factor productivity growth.

        The research shows that the National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases have prominent economic effects, and their high-quality development can promote the growth of regional total factor productivity, and play a partial intermediary role through the agglomeration of service industry and manufacturing industry. In order to promote the high-quality development of the National Sports Industry Demonstration Bases and fully release its economic effect, this paper puts forward the following development suggestions:  strengthen policy guidance, promote the integration of diversified business forms of the bases; Strengthen innovation-driven, promote industrial transformation and upgrading of the bases; Strengthen the support of factors and release the industrial development potential of the bases.