2023年我国出生人数为902万，而死亡人数为1110万，其自然增长率达到了-1.48‰，进一步突显了我国当前正面临着严重的人口问题。在此背景下，对女性生育意愿问题进行研究刻不容缓。受我国深厚的传统文化熏陶，对于众多中国家庭而言，生育一孩已然成为基本的生活需求与家庭期望，是否生育二孩会根据一孩的生育经历和其他约束进行决策。现有研究显示，生育观念是决定生育行为的重要内部因素。且随着我国社会不断发展，我国高人力资本女性数量较多，其面临的生育和工作的矛盾相对尖锐，该群体是最需要政策支持的群体。因此本文聚焦教育高人力资本女性的二孩生育意愿，重点探究其生育观念和政策支持是如何影响其生育意愿的，并同时关注影响高人力资本女性二孩生育意愿的其他因素。

本文首先采用描述性统计分析方法呈现不同世代女博士的生育观念和生育意愿如何变化，并初步探索该群体的生育政策需求。其次，本文运用Logit模型进一步分析高人力资本女性二孩生育意愿的影响因素。最后，本文采用夏普利分解方法和基于排列的变量贡献度排序的方法对影响高人力资本女性二孩生育意愿的因素进行异质性分析。

本文在数据分析后得到以下结论：1）我国已生育过的高人力资本女性二孩生育意愿在54%左右，青年群体多赞同“少生优生”的生育观念，生育观念在众多影响因素中对高人力资本女性的影响最大，且“优生优育”的生育观念会显著降低女性生育意愿。2）“工作和养育孩子的时间精力难以平衡”和“养育成本高、经济压力大”是70后、80后和90后女博士共同面临的最主要的矛盾。3）有50%以上的女博士希望产假延长至12个月以上；超过半数的女博士希望每年发放养育补贴7500元。4）服务支持对高人力资本女性二孩生育意愿促进程度最高，时间支持次之，最后是经济支持。“母职”观念较弱的群体对托育服务、就业服务和时间支持较为需要，而“母职”观念较强的群体对孩子的教育服务、经济支持较为需要。

对此，本文提出如下建议：1）国家应宣传塑造符合目前时代特色的、可持续发展的生育观念。2）国家应考虑在原有产假基础上实施弹性产假制度，最长延长至12个月，并延长养育补贴发放时间，同时提高补贴金额。3）国家应进一步将生育支持政策与劳动政策等其他政策形成有机结合体。并对不同养育观念的群体提供可选择的政策支持，如为夫妻双方均进入劳动市场的家庭提供普惠优质的托育服务，并进一步对市场化的托育服务进行监管和补贴。为育后希望参与劳动的女性提供灵活的时间支持，并进一步鼓励男性陪产假和夫妻双方育儿假的落实。为育后希望在一段时间内在家照顾孩子的女性提供较高的经济支持，如发放高额的育儿补贴，突显女性的家庭价值，补偿其就业的机会成本。

In 2023, the number of births in China was 9.02 million, while the number of deaths was 11.1 million, with a natural growth rate of -1.48‰, which further highlights the serious demographic problems that China is currently facing. In this context, it is urgent to study the issue of women's fertility intentions. Under the influence of our traditional culture, for most Chinese families, having one child is a basic need, and the fertility intention of the second child will be decided based on the experience of having the first child. Existing research shows that fertility concept is an important internal factor in determining fertility behaviour. With the continuous development of China's society, the number of women with high human capital in China is relatively large, and the contradiction between childbearing and work is relatively acute, which makes this group the most in need of policy support. Therefore, this paper focuses on the second-child fertility intentions of women with high human capital in education, focuses on how their fertility concepts and policy support affect their fertility intentions, and also pays attention to other influencing factors that affect the second-child fertility intentions of women with high human capital.

This paper firstly adopts descriptive statistical analysis to present how the fertility concepts and fertility intentions of different generations of female PhDs change, and initially explores the fertility policy needs of this group. Secondly, this paper uses Logit model to further analyse the influencing factors of high human capital women's two-child fertility intention. Finally, this paper adopts the Shapley decomposition method and ranking based on the contribution of ranking variables to analyse the heterogeneity of the factors affecting the second-child fertility intentions of women with high human capital.

After analysing the data, this paper draws the following conclusions: 1) the fertility intention of women with high human capital who have already given birth to a child in China is around 54%, and the youth group mostly agrees with the concept of "fewer births, better births", and the concept has the greatest influence on women with high human capital, which also will significantly reduce women's fertility intention. 2) Difficulty in balancing time and energy between work and child rearing, as well as high costs of child rearing and economic pressure are the most important conflicts faced by post-1970s, post-1980s, and post-1990s female doctors. 3) More than 50% of female doctors hope that the maternity leave can be extended to more than 12 months; more than half of them hope that the annual parenting subsidy of 7,500 RMB can be granted to them. 4) In promoting female doctors' willingness to give birth, service support has the highest degree of contribution, followed by time support, and finally, financial support. Groups with a weaker concept of "motherhood" are more in need of childcare services, employment services and time support, while groups with a stronger concept of "motherhood" are more in need of education services for children and financial support.

In this regard, this paper makes the following recommendations: 1) The State should promote the shaping of a sustainable concept of childbearing that is in keeping with the characteristics of the current era. 2) The State should consider implementing a system of flexible maternity leave on top of the existing maternity leave, with a maximum extension of 12 months, and extend the period of time during which childcare subsidies are paid, and at the same time increase the amount of the subsidies. 3) The State should further develop its childbearing support policies in organic conjunction with other policies, such as its labour policies. It should also provide optional policy support for groups with different concepts of parenthood, such as providing inclusive and high-quality childcare services for families in which both spouses enter the labour market, and further regulating and subsidising market-based childcare services. Provide flexible time support for women who wish to participate in the labour force after childbearing, and further encourage the implementation of paternity leave for men and parental leave for both spouses. Provide women who wish to take care of their children at home for a period of time after childbearing with higher financial support, such as high childcare subsidies, to highlight the value of women's families and compensate for the opportunity cost of their employment.