随着我国经济高速发展，中国已成为油气消费大国。我国自产的油气资源开发逐步由陆地向海上倾斜。海上油气开发具有高技术难度、高设备价值和高灾害风险的特点，一旦发生事故灾难，便会造成巨大经济损失和大范围环境污染。海上油气田面临最频繁的自然灾害为台风（中心附近最大风速＞17.2米/秒的热带气旋），国内外均有台风导致的重大财产损失及人员伤亡的案例。开展海上油气田台风灾害风险评估，对支持海上油气勘探开发、保障能源安全具有重要的理论和应用价值。
本文结合我国海上油气勘探开发中的灾害风险防范需求，通过统计分析、指标体系和模型构建，对我国东南海域油气田区热带气旋的时空变化进行了分析，尝试建立了海上油气田台风灾害综合风险评估体系，并对16处油气田台风灾害风险进行了评估。得到的初步研究结果如下：
（1）系统分析了研究区热带气旋频数、生命期最大风速、持续时间以及潜在破坏力等台风致灾特征。将东南海域油气设施较集中的南海（甲区海域）和东海（乙区海域）分为两个热带气旋影响区域。通过分析过去40余年历史台风数据发现，热带气旋活跃时间为7~10月，其中9月发生频数最高，且超强台风多发；途径甲区海域的热带气旋频数为14.7个/年，乙区为5.3个/年；途径甲区海域热带气旋发生超强台风的概率为22.2%，乙区为8.8%；甲区海域平均生命期的最大风速为39.2m/s，乙区为35.3m/s；途径甲区海域热带气旋的平均持续时间为3.5天，乙区为2.1天；途径甲区的台风及以上等级热带气旋的持续时间占比为61.8%，乙区为56.2%。热带气旋破坏潜力指数（PDI）主要受热带气旋持续时间和生命期最大风速（LMW）的影响。
（2）利用层次分析模糊综合评价法构建了海上油气田台风灾害综合风险评估体系。根据海上油气田本身性质及对行业专家进行问卷调查，构建了工程技术、环境因素与应急管理能力三个子体系及下属21个影响因素完整的综合风险评价模型，并通过专家打分法得到各因素的权重值。结果显示，工程技术在一级评价指标中权重最高，占52. 8%；该指标下二级评价指标“设计工艺缺陷与历史结构损坏”的权重最大，占12.1%。
（3）通过构建的海上油气田台风灾害综合风险评估体系对位于中国东南海域的16个海上油气田区块单位进行了风险评估，并根据风险指数对划分出了四个风险等级。三处极高风险的区域依次为乙4>甲9>甲10，一处较高风险的区域为甲6，三处较低风险的区域依次为乙3>甲5>乙2，九处低风险的区域依次为甲1>甲7>甲4>甲11>甲12>甲8>甲3>甲2>乙1。
本论文的研究结果可为油气企业依据台风灾害采取有效风险防范提供依据。强化防灾防损手段，对台风灾害“极高风险”和“较高风险”区的油气田区，定期进行平台设备检验，发现隐患及时整改，及时更换缺陷部位，保养、修缮老旧平台，提升平台设备整体安全性，制定油气田针对性防台应急预案，不断完善平台的HSE安全管理体系。

With the rapid development of  economy, China has grown into a major oil and gas consuming country. The development of China's self-produced oil and gas resources is gradually tilting from land to sea. Offshore oil/gas development has the characteristics of high technical difficulty, high equipment value, and high disaster risk. Once an accident or disaster occurs, it will cause huge economic losses and large-scale environmental pollution. The most frequent natural disaster faced by offshore oil and gas fields is tropical cyclones (typhoons are tropical cyclones with a maximum mean wind speed of 32.7 m/s near the center), with significant property losses and casualties both domestically and abroad. Conducting risk assessment of typhoon disasters in offshore oil and gas fields has important theoretical and practical value in supporting offshore oil and gas exploration and development, and ensuring energy security.
This article combines the disaster risk prevention needs of offshore oil and gas exploration and development in China, and analyzes the spatiotemporal changes of tropical cyclones in the oil and gas field areas of the southeastern sea area of China through statistical analysis, indicator system, and model construction. It attempts to establish a comprehensive risk assessment system for typhoon disasters in offshore oil and gas fields, and evaluates the risk of typhoon disasters in 16 oil and gas fields. The preliminary research results obtained are as follows:
(1)A systematic analysis was conducted on the frequency, maximum wind speed, duration, and potential destructive power of tropical cyclones in the study area. The probability of super typhoon occurring in tropical cyclones passing through area A is 22.2%, and that in area B is 8.8%; The maximum wind speed during the average lifespan of the sea area in Zone A is 39.2m/s, while in Zone B, it is 35.3m/s; The average duration of a tropical cyclone passing through the waters of Zone A is 3.5 days, while that of Zone B is 2.1 days; The duration of typhoons and above tropical cyclones passing through Zone A accounts for 61.8%, while Zone B accounts for 56.2%. The Tropical Cyclone Destruction Potential Index (PDI) is mainly influenced by the duration of tropical cyclones and the Maximum Wind Speed (LMW) during their lifespan. 
(2)A comprehensive risk assessment system for typhoon disasters in offshore oil and gas fields was constructed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Based on the nature of offshore oil and gas fields and conducting a questionnaire survey with industry experts, a comprehensive risk assessment model was constructed for engineering technology, environmental factors, and emergency management capabilities, as well as 21 subordinate influencing factors. The weight values of each factor were obtained through expert scoring method. The results show that engineering technology has the highest weight among the first level evaluation indicators, accounting for 52 8%; The second level evaluation indicator "Design process defects and historical structural damage" has the highest weight, accounting for 12.1%.
(3) A comprehensive risk assessment system for typhoon disasters in offshore oil and gas fields was constructed to assess the risk of 16 offshore oil and gas field block units located in the southeastern waters of China, and four risk levels were classified based on the risk index. The three extremely high-risk areas are in the order of B4>A9>A10, the one with high risk is A6, the three with relative low risk are in the order of B3>A5>B12, and the nine with low risk are in the order of A1>A7>A4>A11>A12>A8>A3>A2>B11.
The research results of this paper can provide a basis for oil and gas enterprises to effectively prevent typhoon disaster risks. Strengthen disaster prevention and loss prevention measures, regularly inspect platform equipment in oil and gas field areas with "extremely high risk" and "high risk" of typhoon disasters, promptly rectify potential hazards, replace defective parts, maintain and repair old platforms, improve the overall safety of platform equipment, develop targeted emergency plans for oil and gas field typhoon prevention, and continuously improve the HSE safety management system of offshore platforms.