| 中文题名： | “2+26”城市工业绿色增长的影响机制及提升路径研究 |
| 姓名： | |
| 保密级别： | 公开 |
| 论文语种： | 中文 |
| 学科代码： | 020106 |
| 学科专业： | |
| 学生类型： | 硕士 |
| 学位： | 经济学硕士 |
| 学位类型： | |
| 学位年度： | 2022 |
| 校区： | |
| 学院： | |
| 研究方向： | 环境经济政策 |
| 第一导师姓名： | |
| 第一导师单位： | |
| 提交日期： | 2022-06-11 |
| 答辩日期： | 2022-06-04 |
| 外文题名： | Study on the influencing mechanism and improvement path of industrial green growth in "2+26" cities |
| 中文关键词： | |
| 外文关键词： | Industrial green growth ; Assessment of environmental policies ; Spatial difference-in-difference model ; "2+26" cities |
| 中文摘要： |
碳中和目标下，经济社会全面绿色转型备受各方瞩目。长期以来，粗放式的工业增长模式消耗了大量的能源和资源，造成了严重的环境污染，产生了大量的碳排放，成为提升经济社会绿色发展水平的主要障碍。京津冀及周边“2+26”城市是中国重化工业的集中区域，也是中国能源消耗、环境污染物排放和碳排放的典型地区。2017年以来，中国政府在“2+26”城市连续多年开展环境污染协同治理行动，有效地改善了区域环境质量。正因如此，已有相关研究主要将视角集中在协同治污政策对“2+26”城市环境质量的影响方面。然而，在碳中和目标下实现工业绿色低碳转型，不仅要关注政策对环境质量的影响，更要分析政策对工业经济增长、工业环境污染物排放和工业碳排放等因素的复合影响，而工业绿色增长效率恰是反映上述复合影响的综合指标。 |
| 外文摘要： |
Under the goal of carbon neutrality, the comprehensive green and low-carbon transformation of economy and society have attracted much attention. For a long time, the extensive industrial growth model has consumed a lot of energy and resources, caused serious environmental pollution, and produced a large amount of carbon emissions, and become the major obstacle to improve the level of green economic and social development. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding “2+26” cities are core areas of China 's heavy chemical industry, and are also typical areas of China's energy consumption, environmental pollutants emissions and carbon emissions. Since 2017, the Chinese government has carried out collaborative environmental pollution control actions in “2+26” cities for many years, effectively improving regional environmental quality. Therefore, the existing research mainly focuses on the impact of collaborative pollution control policies on the environmental quality in “2+26” cities. However, to achieve industrial green and low-carbon transformation under the goal of carbon neutrality, we should not only focus upon the impact of policies on environmental quality, but also analyze the composite impact of policies on factors such as industrial economic growth, industrial environmental pollution emissions and industrial carbon emissions. The industrial green growth efficiency is just a comprehensive indicator reflecting the above composite impact.
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Unfortunately, current research has not paid enough attention to the impact of collaborative pollution control policies on the industrial green growth efficiency in “2+26” cities. At the same time, the methods for evaluating the effect of collaborative pollution control policies from the perspective of traditional research are mostly qualitative or descriptive statistical analysis. There is still a lack of comprehensive assessment methods based on causal inference framework and taking into account spatial correlation, so the mechanism of collaborative pollution control policies on the industrial green growth efficiency and the different effect of policies are still unclear. Under this background, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system based on the dimension of “economy-environmental pollution-carbon emission” to reflect the level of industrial green growth, and then calculates the industrial green growth efficiency, and regards the implementation of collaborative pollution control policies as a quasi-natural experiment in “2+26” cities. Based on the causal inference framework and spatial error correction, the spatial difference-in-difference model is used to identify the processing effect of this policy. On this basis, the nonlinear and multiple mediating effect tests are used to reveal the influence mechanism of collaborative pollution control policies on industrial green growth efficiency, and the heterogeneity of the policies effect is investigated. Finally, based on the system dynamics model, this paper analyzes the improvement path of industrial green growth and predicts the changing trend of green growth level under each path, and draws the following conclusions: Firstly, the industrial green growth in “2+26” cities is systematically calculated, and its convergence, spatial agglomeration characteristics and dynamic evolution trend are analyzed. It is found that: (1) From 2011 to 2020, the main types of industrial energy consumption in “2+26” cities were raw coal and coke, accounting for about 72.11%. Natural gas consumption has increased year by year since 2017, and the carbon emissions generated by industrial energy consumption in the past 10 years are about 4.746 billion tons; (2) There is neither absolute β convergence nor conditional β convergence in the industrial green growth efficiency in “2+26” cities, so the difference of efficiency among cities is expanding; (3) From the perspective of spatial agglomeration characteristics, the industrial green growth efficiency showed a low level of agglomeration among cities before 2017. However, after 2017, the agglomeration characteristics of efficiency gradually weakened, and the efficiency level significantly improved; (4) From the perspective of dynamic evolution characteristics, the efficiency level was distributed between 0 and 0.4 before 2017, but the efficiency level increased significantly after 2017. The main driving factor for efficiency improvement was technological progress, but the technical efficiency lags behind the change of industrial green growth; (5) The growth efficiency only containing the economic dimension is the highest, showing a trend of first increase and then decrease. However, the growth efficiency of the economic-environmental dimension and the industrial green growth efficiency are relatively low, but showing a trend of increasing year by year. Secondly, this paper systematically evaluates the treatment effect of collaborative pollution control policies, and deeply analyzes the multiple mediating effect and nonlinear mechanism of collaborative pollution control policies on industrial green growth. It is found that: (1) Collaborative pollution control policies significantly improve the industrial green growth in “2+26” cities at the level of 5%, and the results are still valid after adding spatial lag. Collaborative pollution control policies have a positive spatial spillover effect on industrial green growth (at the level of 5%), and the spillover effect accounts for 72. 07%; (2) The collaborative pollution control policies of cities in the group of stable economic growth significantly improve the industrial green growth level at the level of 5%, and the proportion of spatial spillover effect is 66.35%; (3) There is a “U” type relationship between the level of economic development and the industrial green growth level in “2+26” cities; (4) The collaborative pollution control policies have triggered innovation-driven effect, cost constraint effect, industrial structure adjustment effect and public behavior effect, and then promotes the industrial green growth. The contributions of each effect above are 31.62%, 30.77%, 25.64% and 11.97%, respectively. Thirdly, this paper systematically explores the improvement path of industrial green growth in “2+26” cities, and predicts the trend characteristics of growth level under each path. It is found that: (1) Under the benchmark scenario path, the industrial green added value in “2+26” cities is expected to reach CNY 10,313.7 billion in 2030 and CNY 13,507.3 billion in 2060, presenting a trend of “low growth-high pollution-high emission”; (2) In the single-wheel drive scenario, innovation, environmental protection and energy efficiency drive have the trend characteristics of high growth, low pollution and low emission, respectively. Under the two-wheel drive scenario, innovation & environmental protection, innovation & energy efficiency and environmental protection & energy efficiency have the trend characteristics of “high growth-low pollution”, “high growth-low emission” and “low pollution-low emission”, respectively. The multi-wheel drive scenario has the trend characteristics of “high growth-low pollution-low emission”, which is also the optimal path to improve the industrial green growth. The industrial green added value will reach CNY 10,725.4 billion in 2030 and CNY 14,050.1 billion in 2060. According to the above research results, the following enlightenments are obtained: (1) Strengthening the persistence and pertinence of policy supply, improving the optimal allocation of factors and making organizational management more scientific, complementing the short board of technical efficiency, and promoting the industrial green growth level to a high level of equilibrium; (2) Using policy tools such as regulatory standards, price mechanism, taxation and finance to comprehensively improve industrial energy efficiency, optimize the structure of industrial energy use, and promote the industrial green growth level; (3) Strengthening the pertinence of collaborative pollution control policies in “2+26” cities, optimizing the design of policy mechanism, improving the coordinated development level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, and releasing the potential of collaborative pollution control policies to promote the industrial green growth; (4) Strengthen the investment in science and technology and environmental pollution control, reduce the comprehensive energy consumption of ten thousand yuan industrial added value, and realize the green and low carbon transformation of industry based on multi-wheel drive scenario path. This paper puts the evaluation of industrial green growth level, the identification of mechanism, the analysis of promotion path and the prediction of trend under the background of collaborative pollution control policies in “2+26” cities and carbon neutrality, and expands the connotation of industrial green growth efficiency. Based on the causal inference framework and the spatial error correction method, the accuracy of environmental policy evaluation is enhanced, the mechanism of collaborative pollution control policies affecting the industrial green growth efficiency is revealed, and the improvement performance of industrial green growth level under different scenarios is clarified. The research results of collaborative pollution control policies and industrial green growth efficiency in “2+26” cities are enriched, so as to provide research and policy reference for the green and low-carbon transformation of industries under the goal of carbon neutrality. |
| 参考文献总数： | 161 |
| 作者简介： | 付春宝，1995年11月生，河北献县人，安徽大学经济学学士，北京师范大学理论经济学硕士，发表中文核心或SCI学术论文3篇，参与国家重点研发计划项目2项，参与国家自然科学基金面上项目1项，参与国际合作研究项目1项。 |
| 馆藏号： | 硕020106/22002 |
| 开放日期： | 2023-06-11 |
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