| 中文题名： | 江西省耕地撂荒遥感监测与驱动机制研究 |
| 姓名： | |
| 保密级别： | 公开 |
| 论文语种： | 中文 |
| 学科代码： | 0705Z1 |
| 学科专业： | |
| 学生类型： | 硕士 |
| 学位： | 理学硕士 |
| 学位类型： | |
| 学位年度： | 2022 |
| 校区： | |
| 学院： | |
| 研究方向： | 农业统计 |
| 第一导师姓名： | |
| 第一导师单位： | |
| 提交日期： | 2022-06-07 |
| 答辩日期： | 2022-06-03 |
| 外文题名： | FARMLAND ABANDONMENT MONITORING AND ITS DRIVING FACTORS IN JIANGXI PROVINCE |
| 中文关键词： | |
| 外文关键词： | farmland abandonment ; time series ; multi-cropping ; Geodetector |
| 中文摘要： |
摘 要随着近年来我国的快速城市化，耕地撂荒问题逐渐凸显。如何充分利用遥感数据的时空监测优势，实现耕地撂荒的监测与管理，对守住国家粮食安全的生命线的目标要求具有重要的研究意义。江西省农业作为长江中下游平原地区粮食供给的重要来源，其地处亚热带，多熟种植和轮种等方式是增加粮食产量最为有效的方式，导致江西省农业种植时空结构相当复杂。江西省作为长江三角洲经济区，近年来城市复杂的人地关系与人地矛盾，直接影响着耕地利用时空变化，加剧耕地撂荒的发生。研究江西省耕地撂荒的时空演变，探究其自然和人为的驱动因素，将能够直接有效地服务江西省土地利用政策制定和生态文明建设。 针对以往耕地撂荒提取中未考虑多熟的影响，研究选择江西省作为研究区，提出顾及水稻多熟种植的时空特征的耕地撂荒识别方法，提取江西省耕地撂荒时空分布，并分析江西省耕地撂荒的时空分布特征。针对近二十年江西省耕地撂荒时空格局，选择与城市快速发展高度相关的社会经济因素作为潜在驱动因子，基于地理探测器及地统计方法，开展耕地撂荒驱动因素和机制的分析。 研究得到的结论包括：1）江西省耕地撂荒面积逐年减少，且南部撂荒耕地面积减少较北部较快，同时撂荒情况较原来的全省分散分布，逐渐演变为沿河流区域分布，撂荒地有逐渐集中的趋势。2）江西省耕地撂荒整体呈现下降趋势，基于Mann-Kendall趋势性检验可看出，2004-2019年间，江西省耕地撂荒的面积和破碎度都呈现显著性下降趋势。其撂荒耕地重心在纬度上呈现向北方移动的变化趋势。3）从地理探测器的结果来看， 2004-2009年间，影响耕地撂荒占比的驱动因素主要是规模以上工业增加值增速、第三产业就业人员占比和科技经费支出。2010-2014年间，影响耕地撂荒占比的驱动因素主要是地形坡度、县以上研究与开发机构从业人数、科技经费支出。2015-2019年间，影响耕地撂荒占比的驱动因素主要是地形坡度、乡村人口占比和人均地区生产总值。该结论可以为江西省耕地管理政策制定提供参考。 |
| 外文摘要： |
ABSTRACTWith the rapid urbanization of China in recent years, the problem of farmland abandonment has gradually become prominent. How to make full use of the spatial and temporal monitoring advantages of remote sensing data to achieve the monitoring and management of farmland abandonment is of great significance to keep the lifeline of national food security. Jiangxi is located in the subtropics, and agriculture in Jiangxi is an important source of grain supply in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River plain. Since multi-cropping and crop rotation are the most effective ways to increase grain production in Jiangxi, it has resulted in a rather complex spatial and temporal structure of agricultural cultivation. As an economic zone in the Yangtze River Delta, Jiangxi has experienced complex human-land relations and conflicts in recent years, which have not only directly influenced the spatial and temporal changes in farmland utilization but also have aggravated the farmland abandonment. Studying the spatial and temporal evolution of farmland abandonment in Jiangxi Province and exploring its natural and human drivers will directly and effectively serve the policymaking on land use and the construction of ecological civilization. The study selects Jiangxi as the study area and proposes a method to identify the spatial and temporal distribution of abandoned farmland in Jiangxi, taking into account the spatial and temporal characteristics of multi-cropping. According to the spatial and temporal patterns of farmland abandonment in Jiangxi in the past two decades, on the one hand, socio-economic factors highly related to rapid urban development were selected as potential drivers; on the other hand, analysis of the drivers and mechanisms of farmland abandonment were carried out based on Geodetector and geostatistical methods. The conclusions include: 1) the area of abandoned farmland in Jiangxi has been decreasing year by year, and the area of abandoned farmland in the south has been decreasing faster than that in the north. At the same time, the abandoned situation has gradually evolved into a distribution along the river area compared to the original scattered distribution in the province, and there is a trend of gradual concentration of abandoned farmland. 2) The overall trend of farmland abandonment in Jiangxi is decreasing. Based on the Mann-Kendall trend test, it can be seen that the area and fragmentation of farmland abandonment in Jiangxi showed a significant downward trend from 2004 to 2019. The center of gravity of its abandoned farmland showed a trend of moving northward in latitude. 3) From the results of the geodetector, during the period from 2004 to 2009, the main drivers affecting the proportion of arable land abandonment were the growth rate of value-added of industry above designated size, the proportion of the third industry employees and the expenditure on science and technology. From 2010 to 2014, the main drivers affecting the proportion of farmland abandonment were terrain slope, the number of employees in research and development institutions above the county level, and expenditure on science and technology. From 2015 to 2019, the main driving factors affecting the proportion of abandoned farmland were terrain slope, the proportion of rural population and per capita gross regional product. The conclusions can provide a reference for the formulation of farmland management policies in Jiangxi. |
| 参考文献总数： | 65 |
| 馆藏号： | 硕0705Z1/22008 |
| 开放日期： | 2023-06-07 |
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