本研究旨在探讨中国与“一带一路”沿线国家进行金融合作的机制和潜力，并对“一带一路”倡议框架下，如何有效地推进人民币国际化进行战略分析。与“一带一路”沿线国家的全面合作必须建立在对这些国家经济和金融状况充分了解的基础上。本研究对“一带一路”国家的经济和金融发展状况进行描述，并细致分析了“一带一路”国家经济增长的驱动力和宏观经济结构。研究发现，“一带一路”国家大多为低速增长的中等收入国家，其中经济发展水平较高的国家大多具备丰富的能源储备、拥有较高的开放度和受教育水平，并积累了较高的国民储蓄。这些国家也存在一些发展的问题，包括经济发展模式单一、金融波动频繁等。在探讨中国与“一带一路”沿线国家金融合作潜力时，本研究结合中国的投资需求和外国的融资需求，设计中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的金融合作潜力指数，从而对中国与沿线国家之间的金融合作潜力分布及其影响因素的进行量化分析。根据本文研究，具备更高金融合作潜力的国家往往与中国存在密切的贸易和投资往来，且这些国家的经济环境稳定、基础设施存量相对较低。 “一带一路”倡议为人民币国际化的有效推进提供了极佳的窗口。在分析“一带一路”倡议背景下人民币国际化的路径和战略之前，本研究首先对全球金融体系中主要国际货币及新兴市场国家货币的国际化程度进行了有效测度。通过测算非本国投资者持有的主权货币资产总量，本文发现，人民币已于2013年超过日元，跻身全球前五大国际货币的行列，排在其前位的分别为美元、欧元、英镑和瑞士法郎。在基于该指标探索货币国际化程度影响因素时，研究发现货币的国际化程度并不取决于该货币资产的潜在收益，而取决于货币发行国的经济基本面，包括金融市场广度和深度、经济规模、汇率稳定性等。在研究国际货币体系发生变迁的内在机制时，本文从货币在全球金融体系中的投资和融资功能入手，讨论国际货币跨境持有背后隐藏的资本流动，并研究国际货币变迁的影响因素。在构建一个融入贸易和资本流动的两国模型后，本文发现国际货币体系的变迁经历了由发达国家的投资货币主导转变成由新兴市场国家的融资货币所主导的过程，货币发行国的产品需求弹性越小、货币贬值率越大、对国内产业的地方保护越强，则越易促成国际货币体系的变迁。因此，推动国内产业升级以提升企业竞争力对于促进人民币国际化是至关重要的。 基于国际货币理论的研究以及对“一带一路”沿线国家经济金融形势和金融合作潜力的分析，本文提出了人民币国际化进程中可供参考的路径选择。在对比人民币国际化的贸易路径、国际协议路径以及金融市场路径后，本研究发现金融市场应是人民币国际化的关键所在。在推进人民币国际化时，政府仍需小心提防一些潜在风险，包括宏观经济政策效力减弱的风险、股票和债券市场的价格风险、汇率风险等。我国需要在金融环境稳定的前提下推动国内的市场化改革，并对改革进程中可能出现的汇率大幅波动做好应急预案，防止由国际游资炒作导致信心崩溃，从而使得国际化进程停滞；需要在更为开放的投融资环境中提高国内各金融行业监管的协调性，构建跨境金融防火墙和危机应急机制，防止金融危机的区域化传染。

This research investigates the financial cooperative potential between China and the Belt and Road countries (BRCs), and provides strategic analysis on Renminbi (RMB) internationalization under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework. It starts with a descripitive analysis on the economic and financial development of the BRCs, and gives a general picture of their economic structure and drivers of their economic growth. According to the research, most of the BRCs are middle income countries with low economic growth. Among those with relatively higher level of economic development, most are endowned with rich energy resources and high national savings. They are highly opened to the rest of the world through the trade and finance channel, and their citizens are very well educated. It’s also found that problems exist concerning their development modes, for example, these countries suffers from frequent financial turbulence and they have heavy reliance on natural resources to sustain the reasonalble economic growth. The report then proceeds with analysis on the financial cooperative potential between China and the BRCs and designs an index based on the investment demand in China and the financing needs of the BRCs to quantify the level of cooperative potential. Using this index, this report analyzes the distribution of the financial cooperative potential among the BRCs and uncovers its influencing factors. The statistical findings are that countries with higher financial cooperative potential have closer economic ties with China. These countries are mostly low-income or middle-income countries with a shortage of infrastructure investment, while their economic development is stable. The research results provide guidance for the overseas strategic layout of the Chinese financial institutions. More funds should be injected into China’s trade and investment counterparts that have stable economic growth and a strong demand for infrastructure investment, such as countries in Northeast, Central and Southeast Asia. The BRI provides a perfect platform for the RMB to go out. To enhance the statistical foundation for strategic analysis, this report develops a new indicator to measure the internationalization level of main international currencies and emerging market currencies. By calculating the amount of non-residents’ holdings of assests denominated in a sovereign currency, this report finds that the RMB overtook the Japanese yen as the fifth international currency in 2013, following the US dollar, the euro, the British pound sterling and the Swiss franc. When examining how the international level of a currency is affected by different macroeconomic variables, the report finds that it is significantly positively correlated to the variables on the economic scale and capital market scales, while investment returns of these currencies are not significant. Macroeconomic fundamentals, including whether the currency is backed by a wide and deep financial and goods market, are much more important than the returns on the capital goods in foreign currencies. In terms of the mechanisms of the evolvement of the international monetary system, this report divides the role an international currency takes in the global financial system into two parts, i.e., the investment vehicle and the financing currency. The direction of cross-border capital flows is different when the international currency takes different roles. Based on a theoretical model incorporating the trade and capital flows between two countries, this report finds that when a new currency challenges the status of an exisiting international currency, the international monetary system switches from one dominated by the investment currency issued by an advanced country to one dominated by the financing currency issued by an emerging economy. During the process, the global monetary system more tends to evolve when the demand elaciticity of the tradable goods is low, the depreciation rate of the existing international currency is high, and the local protection of the advanced country is strict. After the detailed review of international currency theories and the analysis on the BRCs economic and financial backgrounds, this report proceeds with the strategic analysis on RMB internationalization. After comparing the different paths of RMB internationalization, it is concluded that it’s more appropriate for RMB to internationalize through the path of opening and developing its financial market. For example, China needs to expand the pool of RMB denominated assets and enhance the efficiency of the financial system to satisfy the growing international investment needs. It’s, however, important to be cautious about some potential risks, including the macroeconomic risks and foreign exchange risks, in promoting the internationalization of RMB. China should open its financial markets under the condition that the financial stability is well preserved. Otherwise, the cross-border flows of the international capital is likely to cause turbulence in the stock and foreign exchange market, reverse the investor expectation, and halt the RMB internationalization process. The integrated financial regulation framework and the financial firewall also have to be established to prevent the cross-border financial contagion.