颠覆性技术可以带来市场格局甚至是社会结构的巨大变革，是全球科技创新时代实现技术突袭和弯道超车的重要战略力量，已引起世界各国政府的重点关注与政策布局。然而由于颠覆性技术通常起于边缘市场，在完成对主流技术的颠覆过程中存在成长空间受限和伦理治理困境的双重问题，不论是技术保护还是技术监管都是目前我国发展颠覆性技术的需求痛点。随着全球颠覆性技术政策体系日益完善，世界科技强国的政策经验可以为我国提供有效借鉴和启示。而目前针对颠覆性技术政策的研究一方面缺乏对技术监管的关注，一方面对政策量化的全局分析不足。

基于以上背景，本研究紧密围绕技术保护和技术监管视角展开颠覆性技术政策量化的理论和实证研究。首先，梳理美国、欧盟、日本、英国等世界主要科技强国/地区在人工智能、量子信息、基因编辑和综合政策等领域的颠覆性技术政策文件，形成全面系统的政策文件库，以此作为数据基础。其次，将政策工具理论、面向技术保护的战略生态位管理理论和面向技术监管的负责任创新理论引入颠覆性技术政策量化二维分析框架，X维度为政策工具维度，Y维度为颠覆性技术成长过程维度，使用内容分析法对颠覆性技术政策文件进行编码和计量，结合案例分析法从语义层面深入挖掘科技强国的具体政策举措。在此基础上进行政策变迁和政策扩散等趋势分析，通过主题聚类模型挖掘政策主题热点及其演化特征，并基于时序关系刻画政策工具在国内外的扩散模式。同时，基于现有文献对我国的颠覆性技术政策中保护和监管方面的共性问题进行总结。最后针对这些现存问题，结合世界主要科技强国的政策经验为我国发展颠覆性技术提供保护与监管方面的政策改进建议。

在文本内容量化中，本研究总结并完善了颠覆性技术政策中的13种政策工具，归纳了世界主要科技强国在保护和监管方面运用这些政策工具的典型举措，结合技术成长过程对比各阶段的政策工具的应用侧重。在时空特征计量中，本研究将政策发展划分为7个时期，一方面提取了保护和监管视角的政策主题热点，以及它们在不同时期内容上和强度上的演化情况，分为衰减型、增长型和波动型3类；一方面对政策工具的种类扩散趋势和府际扩散方向进行计量，发现保护和监管视角下的扩散模式主要包括平行扩散、自上而下的垂直扩散、跨机构扩散以及国际扩散4种。最后基于现有文献的观点总结出我国颠覆性技术政策不足，并结合世界主要科技强国的政策经验对我国相关政策的改进方向提出建议。

在理论层面，本研究丰富了情报分析和信息计量领域的方法体系，也为政策文献计量研究提供新的视角与思路；在实践层面，本研究有助于把握和借鉴世界主要科技强国颠覆性技术政策的有益经验，为我国制定和完善颠覆性技术保护和监管政策提供参考。

Disruptive technology can bring about huge changes in the market and even social structure. It is an important strategic force for realizing technological raid and overtaking on curves in the era of global innovation, which has attracted the attention of governments around the world to conduct the policy layouts. However, because disruptive technologies usually originate in marginal markets, there are dual problems of limited growth space and ethical governance dilemmas in the process of subverting mainstream technologies. Technical protection and regulation are the pain points for China to develop disruptive technologies. With the increasing improvement of the global disruptive technology policy system, the policy experience of major science and technology powers can provide effective reference and inspiration for China. On the one hand, the current researches lack attention to technology regulation, and on the other hand, the overall analysis of policy quantification is insufficient.

Based on the above background, this study focuses on the theoretical and empirical research on the quantification of disruptive technology policies from the perspective of technology protection and technology regulation. Firstly, this thesis sorts out the disruptive technology policy documents in the fields of artificial intelligence, quantum information, gene editing, and comprehensive policies in the major powers/regions such as the United States, the European Union, Japan, and the United Kingdom, and forms a systematic policy document library as data foundation. Secondly, the policy tools theory, the Strategic Niche Management for technology protection and the Responsible Research and Innovation for technology regulation are introduced into the two-dimensional analysis framework of disruptive technology policy quantification, X dimension is the policy tools, Y dimension is the growth process of disruptive technology. Content analysis is used to code and measure the policy documents. Combined with case analysis, the specific policy measures are deeply explored from the semantic level. On this basis, the trend analysis of policy change and diffusion is carried out, the hot topics of policy and their evolution characteristics are mined through LDA model and DTM model, and the diffusion pattern of policy tools is depicted based on the time series. At the same time, based on the existing literature, this paper summarizes the common problems of protection and regulation in China's disruptive technology policies. Finally, combined with the advanced experience of major powers in the world, this paper provides policy improvement suggestions for China's development of disruptive technology.

In the quantification of text content, this study summarizes 13 policy tools of disruptive technology and the typical measures of the major powers in protection and regulation, and compares the focus of policy tools among different stages. In the measurement of time and space features, this study divides policy issuing years into seven periods. On the one hand, six hot topics from the perspectives of protection and regulation are extracted, as well as their evolution in content and intensity in different periods, including attenuation type, growth type and fluctuation type. On the other hand, the change of policy tools and the direction of inter-governmental diffusion are measured, and it is found that the diffusion patterns mainly include parallel diffusion, top-down vertical diffusion, cross-agency diffusion and international diffusion. Finally, based on the existing literature, this paper summarizes the deficiencies of China's disruptive technology policies, and puts forward suggestions on the improvement direction of China's relevant policies combined with the experience of the world's major powers.

In theoretical aspect, this study enriches the method system in the field of Information Analysis and Informetrics, and provides new perspectives for policy bibliometric research. In practical aspect, this thesis absorbs the useful policy experience of the major powers to provide reference for our country to formulate and improve disruptive technology protection and regulation policies.