本文以我国非金融类、非ST的A股上市公司2012-2016年间管理者业绩预告、企业业绩等数据为研究样本，以企业研发支出和固定资产投资额为中介变量，以业绩预告与实际盈余的相符程度衡量管理者过度自信，实证检验了其对企业业绩的影响方向及路径。回归结果显示，管理者过度自信对企业业绩有显著的正向效应，并且可以通过增加企业的研发支出，提升企业业绩；而企业的固定资产投资额会发挥消极的中介作用，即管理者过度自信会增加企业的有形资产投资额，降低投资效率，对企业业绩有所损害；此外，在控制了研发支出和固定资产投资额后，管理者过度自信对企业业绩的正向效应仍然显著。上述结论在考虑内生性、改变管理者过度自信计量方法后依然成立。

Using manager earnings forecasts and firm performance during 2012 to 2016 as a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies, this study examines the path of manager overconfidence, measured by the consistency of forecast and actual earnings, influence on firm performance with mediation variables of R&D expenses and fixed-asset investments. Empirical results show that manager overconfidencenot only has direct positive influence on firm performance, but also improve earnings by increase the R&D expenses. We also find that fixed-asset investments play a negative role on the positive influence. That’s to say, overconfident manager would invest more on fixed-assets, but as well lead to overinvestment and reduce investment efficiency, damaging firm performance. Besides, after controlling the two mediation variables, the positive influence of manager overconfidence on firm performance is still significant. The conclusions remain still unchanged after changing the methods of measuring manager overconfidence and controlling endogeneity.