新冠肺炎爆发以来，谣言四起，肆意传播，以极快速度在线上线下弥漫扩散。谣言具有强大的破坏力，研究表明谣言会威胁政党声望，增加群体间不信任和恶性冲突，甚者会危害公共卫生、经济稳定和国家安全等。谣言经典研究指出，根据谣言满足的不同情感需求，可将谣言分为希望型、恐惧型和敌对型谣言。但将谣言细分为不同类型进行探讨的相关研究却非常有限。目前仅有的少量研究表明不同类型的谣言具有不同的特性。

考虑到此次新冠肺炎的影响力和谣言的盛行和危害，本研究拟在新冠肺炎情境下，采用追踪设计，从三个方面：谣言随疫情发展的时间规律（谣言参与度，谣言感知频率，谣言分享行为和分享动机，谣言的适应功能），谣言参与度的前因变量（焦虑、本地严重性），谣言参与度的后果（信任、主观幸福感），探讨不同类型谣言的发展规律和差异性。

本研究采用Credamo平台，对497名被试进行间隔十天共三次的追踪问卷测量，最终有效被试为451名。就谣言随疫情发展的时间规律而言，采用重复测量方差分析，结果表明，1）参与度、感知频率和分享行为三者的时间主效应显著，即三者随疫情发展均有显著下降的趋势，而适应功能没有显著变化。2）类型主效应显著，即不同类型谣言在参与度、感知频率、分享行为和适应功能上均有显著差异。具体而言，一致发现希望型谣言显著高于恐惧型谣言，恐惧型谣言显著高于敌对型谣言。此外，通过单样本方差分析与均值比较，结果表明希望型谣言帮助适应功能，恐惧型和敌对型谣言妨碍适应功能。3）谣言感知频率、分享行为的时间和类型的交互作用显著，即恐惧型谣言随时间下降趋势更快。4）就分享动机而言，事实寻求是主要的分享动机。但对于希望型谣言，三种动机没有明显的差异。

就谣言参与度的影响因素而言，采用路径分析，考虑时间变化的影响，建立回归和自回归模型。结果表明，相比于本地严重性这个客观变量，焦虑这一主观变量对谣言更为直接的预测变量。焦虑在三种类型谣言上没有明显差异，本地严重性只正向预测恐惧型谣言。

就谣言参与度的后果而言，采用多层线性增长模型，考虑时间变化的影响，结果表明，希望型谣言正向显著预测一般信任和特殊信任。与之相对，恐惧型谣言负向显著预测一般信任和特殊信任。而敌对型谣言没有显著的预测作用。尽管本研究中三种类型谣言对主观幸福感没有显著影响，但仍然发现谣言对幸福感有消极影响的趋势。

综上，本研究了探讨不同类型谣言随疫情发展的基本时间规律，以及不同类型谣言参与度的前因后果，发现：希望型谣言影响力最高，人们更愿意参与，更容易感知，也更愿意分享，具有最强的适应功能，帮助适应，对信任起到促进作用。恐惧型谣言影响力次之，阻碍适应，且随疫情好转，恐惧型感知频率和分享行为随疫情下降最快，对信任起到抑制削减作用。最后，敌对型谣言影响力最弱，阻碍适应，对信任没有影响。焦虑对三者均有较强的促进作用，本地严重性仅促进恐惧型谣言的参与。

简言之，无论是随疫情发展的时间规律，还是前因变量及后果上，三种类型谣言有着巨大的差异，这进一步说明细分谣言类型具有相当的必要性和重要性。此外，鉴于谣言的传播力和严重后果，干预谣言刻不容缓。本研究描绘了随疫情发展的时间规律，探索了谣言参与的前因后果，能帮助进一步认识和看清谣言的本质。并且为政策上干预提供了理论基础，如建议根据不同类型谣言采取不同的处理方法和干预强度。

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, rumor spreads recklessly and rapidly online and offline. Rumor has a strong destructive power. Previous researches have shown that rumor threatens the reputation of political parties, increases mistrust and vicious conflict among groups. What’s worse, it even endangers public health, economic stability and national security. A classic research classified rumor into wish, bogie and aggression rumor according to the basic function of satisfying the emotional need. However, research about different types of rumors is limited. Notably, the extant few studies have indicated that different types of rumors have different characteristics.

On account of the influence of COVID-19 and the prevalence and harm of rumor, through longitudinal design, the current research was to explore rules and differences of different types of rumor from three aspects: the developmental rules of rumor with the epidemic (rumor engagement, perceived frequency, sharing behaviors and motivation, coping), antecedents of rumor engagement (anxiety and severity) and consequences of rumor engagement (trust and subjective well-being).

The study adopted the Credamo platform and followed 497 people for three 10-day intervals, with 451 valid participants. For the developmental rules of rumor with the epidemic, results of MANOVA showed that 1) the main effect of time on engagement, perceived frequency and sharing behavior had significant decrease trends, while the main effect of time on coping was insignificantly. 2) different types of rumors all had significant differences in engagement, perceived frequency, sharing behavior and coping. Specifically, wish rumor was significantly higher than bogie rumor, and bogie rumor was significantly higher than aggression rumor. In addition, comparing with mean score, one-sample ANOVA showed that wish rumor promoted coping, while bogie and aggression rumor inhibit coping. 3) The interaction of time and type on perceived frequency and sharing behaviors were significant. Specifically, bogie rumor decreased more rapidly over time. 4) For motivations of sharing, fact-finding was the main motivation. But three motivations had no obvious difference in wish rumor.

For antecedents of rumor engagement, the present study took the influence of time into consideration and built the regression and autoregressive models, results of path analysis indicated that, comparing with the objective factor that severity, the subjective factor that anxiety was a more directly predictor. The effect of anxiety on different types of rumor had no obvious differences, severity only positively predicted bogie rumor.

For consequences of rumor engagement, results of Multilayer Linear Growth Model on trust and subjective well-being demonstrated, accounting the effect of time, wish rumor positively predicted trust, while, bogie rumor negatively predicted trust. And aggression rumor had no significant prediction. All three types of rumors almost had no effect on subjective well-being.

In total, this study discussed the basic developmental rules of different types of rumor with the epidemic, and the antecedents and consequences of rumor engagement of different types of rumor. Wish rumor had the greatest power, with people more likely to engage, perceive and share. What’s more, the coping function of wish rumor was strongest and it promoted coping as well as trust. The power of bogie rumor was the second, which inhibit coping, and with the improvement of the epidemic, the perceived frequency and sharing behavior of bogie rumor decreased the fastest. Notably, it inhibited and reduced trust. Finally, aggression rumor was the least power and had no effect on trust, but inhibit coping. Anxiety promoted all three types rumor, and local severity only promoted the engagement of bogie rumor.

In short, this study found that there were great differences among different types of rumors in developmental rules, antecedents and consequences, providing further evidence for the necessity of subdivision of rumor types. In addition, in view of the spreading speed and serious consequences of rumor, it is imperative to intervene in rumors. This study described the developmental rules with the epidemic and explored the causes and consequences of rumor engagement, which helps to further understand and clear the nature of rumor. This study provided suggestions for policies like taking corresponding countermeasures according to different types of rumor.