改革开放以来，中国在减贫、扶贫上做出了巨大的贡献。农村地区是脱贫攻坚战的主要阵地，中国政府始终高度重视“三农”工作，着力提高农民收入和幸福指数，不断增强农村经济发展活力。随着我国经济飞速增长和农村金融体系改革，符合农户需求的金融产品和借贷服务更加丰富和精准，家庭借贷行为成为了一种常见且重要的行为，但是农户仍然面临着“融资难”、“融资贵”等问题。我国农村家庭普遍存在较高的借贷约束，金融扶贫是实现贫困人口脱贫的重要途径。农户运用这部分资金进行家庭决策决定是否生产或投资，对家庭收入增长、农村金融体系改革和乡村振兴都有重要意义。

根据以上背景和意义，本文采用中国家庭追踪调查（Chinese Family Panel Studies）的数据，考察借贷对收入的影响路径和中介效应。研究结论如下：（1）采用核密度估计法说明CFPS的数据能够较好的反映真实的总体样本。然后对CFPS进行描述性统计分析，发现农户对借贷资源有一定的需求，无论是住房贷款还是非住房贷款都呈较快规模的增长。但是由于存在信贷配给现象，农村部分家庭存在着借贷约束。（2）寻找工具变量，采用两阶段最小二乘法（2SLS）消除内生性，发现借贷对收入呈正向影响。2016年借贷规模越大的家庭，2018年的家庭纯收入越高。（3）采用分位数回归进行异质性检验，发现在中低收入人群中，随着收入的提高，借贷对其的影响更加显著；中等偏上收入的人群小富即安，贷款的增收效应最低，不存在超额收益；较高收入人群往往有扩张性的投资行为，因此会通过多借钱而获得了超额收益。（4）农户可以通过借贷提高自己的初始禀赋，运用投资生产性固定资产以扩大生产规模或者进行个体私营等方式，促进收入增长，提高福利水平，形成良性的借贷循环。投资生产性固定资产和从事个体私营的完全中介效应存在。

根据本文提出的政策建议如下：（1）不断建设和完善农村金融市场，扩展农村信贷抵押担保品范围，缓解借贷约束问题，鼓励农户从正规机构获得金融资源。（2）引导农村金融需求，控制金融风险，同时防止过度借贷问题的存在。建立农村信贷风险分散机制和农村信用担保体系。（3）稳步实施利率市场化，促进市场定价合理化，同时加大政府扶持力度，激励农村金融机构将农村存款回流回农村，增加涉农贷款。（4）加快城乡制度改革，打破城乡壁垒，实现共同富裕。

Since the reform and opening up, China has made great contributions to poverty reduction and poverty alleviation. Rural areas are the main battlefields in the fight against poverty. The Chinese government has always attached great importance to the work of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers", and strived to increase farmers' income and happiness index, and continuously enhance the vitality of rural economic development. With China's rapid economic growth and reform of the rural financial system, financial products and loan services that meet the needs of farmers have become more abundant and accurate, and household lending behavior has become a common and important behavior, but farmers still face "Difficult financing", "expensive financing" and other issues. Nurkse (1953) 's theory of the vicious circle of poverty states that the root of the vicious circle of poverty is the lack of capital formation. China's rural families generally have high borrowing constraints. Financial poverty reduction is an important way to achieve poverty alleviation for the poor. Farmers use this part of their funds to make family decisions to decide whether to produce or invest, which is of great significance to household income growth, rural financial system reform, and rural revitalization.

Based on the above background and significance, this article uses data from the Chinese Family Panel Studies to examine the intermediary effect and impact path of borrowing on income. The conclusions of the study are as follows: (1) The kernel density estimation method is used to demonstrate that the CFPS data can better reflect the true overall sample. Then, a descriptive statistical analysis of CFPS was conducted, and it was found that farmers have a certain demand for borrowing resources. Both housing loans and non-housing loans have increased rapidly. However, due to the phenomenon of credit rationing, some rural households have borrowing constraints. (2) Finding instrumental variables, using two-stage least squares (2SLS) to eliminate endogenousness, and finding that borrowing has a positive impact on income. The larger the borrowing size in 2016, the higher the net income of the family in 2018. (3) Heterogeneity test was performed using quantile regression. It was found that among low- and middle-income people, with the increase in income, the impact of borrowing on it is more significant; among the middle-to-upper-income group, the effect of increased income is the lowest and there is no excess return; higher income groups often have expansionary investment behaviors, so they will obtain excess returns by borrowing more money. (4) Farmers can increase their initial endowment through borrowing, use investment in productive fixed assets to expand production scale, or carry out private ownership, etc., to promote income growth, improve welfare levels, and form a healthy borrowing cycle. The full mediation effect of investing in productive fixed assets and engaging in private ownership exists.

The policy recommendations based on this article are as follows: (1) Continue to build and improve rural financial markets, expand the scope of rural credit mortgage collateral, ease borrowing constraints, and encourage farmers to obtain financial resources from formal institutions. (2) Guide rural financial needs, control financial risks, and prevent the existence of excessive borrowing problems. Establish a rural credit risk diversification mechanism and a rural credit guarantee system. (3) Steady implementation of interest rate marketization, rationalization of market pricing, and increased government support to encourage rural financial institutions to return rural deposits to the countryside and increase agricultural-related loans. (4) Accelerate the reform of the urban and rural system, break the barriers between urban and rural areas, and achieve common prosperity.