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中文题名:

 土壤镉污染和气候变化下川芎的生态适宜区规划研究    

姓名:

 何平    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 0705Z1    

学科专业:

 自然资源    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 理学硕士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2022    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 地理科学学部    

研究方向:

 中药资源    

第一导师姓名:

 孟繁蕴    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学地理科学学部    

提交日期:

 2022-06-15    

答辩日期:

 2022-05-27    

外文题名:

 STUDY ON ECOLOGICALLY SUITABLE AREA PLANNING UNDER THE CD POLLUTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE    

中文关键词:

 川芎 ; 土壤镉污染 ; 气候变化 ; 生态位模型 ; 生态适宜区    

外文关键词:

 L chuanxiong ; Soil cadmium pollution ; Climate change ; Niche model ; Ecologically suitable areas    

中文摘要:

  川芎,为伞形科藁本属植物川芎(Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort)的干燥根茎,是中国传统的中药材,其道地产区位于四川境内,包括都江堰、郫县、新都、彭州、崇州、邛崃等县。近年来,由于川芎植物体内尤其是根茎部分不断被检测出大量镉元素含量超标,使得出口药材川芎被销毁或退回,引发了人们对于川芎用药的担心。为解决川芎镉污染问题,本研究从生态和地理角度出发,首先基于川芎分布点数据、环境因子数据,通过生态位模型筛选出川芎的高中适宜区。其次,使用地理信息技术模拟研究区范围内土壤镉背景值并进行矿区核密度分析。最终,耦合生态位模型结果、土壤镉污染背景和矿区核密度影响,规划川芎在当前的生态适宜种植区,并划分为一级生态适宜区和二级生态适宜区。为进一步了解所规划的川芎生态适宜区在未来气候变化下的空间动态,本研究使用生态位模型预测了未来2050年和2070年川芎的适宜生境,使用土壤重金属累积预测模型模拟未来两个时段的土壤镉污染状况,并按同样的方法规划出川芎的一级生态适宜区和二级生态适宜区。此外,本研究在规划过程中还评估了川芎的生境适宜性和空间动态趋势。主要研究结果如下:
  (1当前气候条件下,川芎生态适宜区呈椭圆状分布,从成都开始沿逆时针方向到眉山市、内江市、泸州市、重庆合川县、华蓥市、德川市、南充市、广元市、绵阳市,最后回到成都市。就分布面积而言,川芎一级生态适宜区和二级生态适宜区面积分别 2063.43 km216372.15 km2且一级生态适宜区分布不及二级生态适宜区广,仅集中在成都和眉山两地,涉及县域有眉山县(577.26 km2)、邛崃县(329.63 km2)、浦江县(254.80 km2)、彭山县(180.68 km2)、新津县(154.68 km2)、仁寿县(135.10 km2)和大邑县(107.33 km2),分布面积均大于100 km2。川芎二级生态适宜区分布较广,面积超过400 km2的县域有12个,平武县、泸县、合川县分别以1112.72 km2979.63 km2、880.91 km2的面积位居前三,其余县域如剑阁、隆昌、资中等地也是二级生态适宜区分布的重要地域。

  2根据刀切法结果显示,影响川芎生长和分布格局形成的生态因子有表层黏土阳离子交换容量、太阳辐射、海拔、风速和年温度变化范围,累计贡献率达87.9%。相应的响应阈值为:平均每天不高于12028.92 kJ·m-2的太阳辐射,峰值为10303.08 kJ·m-2,表层黏土阳离子交换容量0.95 ~1.12 cmol/kg,最适宜值为1.0 cmol/kg,年温度变化范围25.98 ~29.23 ℃,最适宜年温度变化范围为27.24 ℃。另外,海拔要求介于930.31 m974.54 m之间,最适宜值为554.36 m,同时1.09 ~1.55 m/s的风速为川芎的适生范围,且最适宜风速条件为1.24 m/s
  (3研究区2050年与2070年土壤镉污染累积预测结果表明,乐观情境下,土壤镉含量达到国家土壤镉一级标准和二级标准的区域最多,无突变次之,悲观最少。从当前到未来,变化最大的区域位于四川中部和东北部,包括成都市、德阳市、眉山市、乐山市和广元市等地。乐观情境下,土壤镉污染往良性方向发展,大片地区转化为低镉含量地域。无突变情境下,低镉含量的地区有所缩小,污染面积相对扩大。悲观状态下,这种模式继续恶化,一级土壤镉污染地区分布稀少。另外,始终处于稳定地区的是成都和眉山等市,包括仁寿县、浦江县、邛崃县等等。这些地区对于川芎种植具有重要意义。

  (42050年与2070年四种气候变化情境下(RCP2.6RCP4.5RCP6.0RCP8.5),三种土壤镉污染预测情境所对应的川芎生态适宜区规划结果具有极大的差异。整体而言,乐观状态下川芎一级生态适宜区分布最多,无突变次之,悲观最小,而对于二级生态适宜区,无突变情境下最多,乐观次之,悲观最小。成都市邛崃县、新津县和浦江等地一直是分布核心区域,被视为川芎一级生态适宜区中最优选的地域。无突变和悲观情境下,川芎生态适宜区多集中在成都市和眉山市,其余地区波动很大。

  5未来气候变化下,川芎高、中适宜区变化较大,高适宜区主要以成都市为中心向南部延伸,而中适宜区主要集中在四川、重庆交界处,且重心逐渐往东移。川芎高中适宜区增减趋势总体上处于增加状态,只是随着时间的推移,增加的面积逐渐减少,而收缩的区域逐渐扩大。成都市、眉山市等传统川芎道地产物较为稳定,且适宜区变化最为稳定的是2050RCP8.5气候变化情境,不变面积达119232.07 km2。川芎高中适宜区质心迁徙结果显示,河流水系的存在可能对川芎的分布产生巨大影响,其迁徙几乎均指向河流附近。另外,随着气候变化进一步加剧,川芎适宜区有逐渐往南部移动的迹象。

外文摘要:

Ligusticum chuanxiong Hort, the dried rhizome of L. chuanxiong, is a traditional Chinese medicinal material. Its authentic production areas are located in Sichuan, including Dujiangyan, Pixian, Xindu, Pengzhou, Chongzhou, Qionglai, and others. In recent years, due to the detected cadmium element content in L. chuanxiong exceeds national standards, in particular the rhizome of the rhizomer, the export medicinal material L. chuanxiong is destroyed or returned, which has triggered people's concerns about L. chuanxiong. In order to solve the problem of cadmium pollution in L. chuanxiong, this study from the perspective of ecology and geography, on the one hand, based on the distribution point data and environmental factor data of L. chuanxiong, and screened out the suitable areas for high schools in L. huanxiong through the niche model. Secondly, use geographic information technology to simulate the background value of soil cadmium in the study area and carry out the core density analysis of the mining area. Finally, coupled with the results of the niche model, the background of soil cadmium pollution and the influence of the core density of the mining area, the current ecologically suitable planting area of L. chuanxiong is planned and divided into the first-level ecologically suitable area and the second-level ecologically suitable area. In order to further understand the spatial dynamics of the planned ecologically suitable area of L. chuanxiong under future climate change, this study used the niche model to predict the suitable habitat of L. chuanxiong in 2050 and 2070, and used the soil heavy metal accumulation prediction model to simulate the two periods. The soil cadmium pollution status, and the first-level ecologically suitable area and the second-level ecologically suitable area for L. chuanxiong were planned according to the same method. In addition, this study also assessed the habitat suitability and spatial dynamic trends of L. chuanxiong during the planning process. The main findings are as follows:   (1) Under the current climatic conditions, the ecologically suitable areas of L. chuanxiong are distributed in an elliptical shape, starting from Chengdu in a counterclockwise direction to Meishan, Neijiang, Luzhou, Chongqing Hechuan County, Huaying, Dechuan, Nanchong, Guangyuan, Mianyang, and finally back to Chengdu. In terms of distribution area, the first and second ecologically suitable areas of L. chuanxiong were 2063.43 kmand 16372.15 km2, respectively. The distribution of the first level ecologically suitable areas of L. chuanxiong is not as wide as that of the second level ecologically suitable areas, only concentrated in Chengdu and Meishan, involving Meishan County (577.26 km2), Qionglai (329.63 km2), Pujiang (254.80 km2), Pengshan (180.68 km2), Xinjin (154.68 km2), Renshou (135.10 km2), and Dayi (107.33 km2), all of which are larger than 100 km2. The secondary ecologically suitable areas of L. chuanxiong are widely distributed. There are 12 counties with an area of more than 400 km2. Pingwu, Lu County, and Hechuan ranked the top three with an area of 1112.72 km2, 979.63 km2, and 880.91 km2, respectively. The remaining counties such as Jiange, Longchang, and Zizhong are also important areas for the distribution of secondary ecologically suitable areas.   (2) According to the results of the Jacknife method, solar radiation, surface clay cation exchange capacity, annual temperature variation range, altitude, and wind speed were evaluated as important environmental factors driving the current distribution pattern of L. chuanxiong, with a cumulative contribution rate of 87.9%. The corresponding response thresholds are; the average daily solar radiation is not higher than 12028.92 kJ·m-2; the optimum solar radiation is 10303.08 kJ·m-2; and the cation exchange capacity of the surface clay is 0.95 ~1.12 cmol/kg, the optimum value is 1.0 cmol/kg; the annual temperature variation range is 25.98 ~29.23 ℃, and the optimum annual temperature variation range is 27.24 ℃. In addition, the altitude requirement is between 930.31 m and 974.54 m, the optimum value is 554.36 m, and the wind speed of 1.09 ~1.55 m/s is the suitable range of Chuanxiong, and the optimum wind speed is 1.24 m/s. 

(3) The cumulative prediction results of soil cadmium pollution in the study area in 2050 and 2070 show that under the optimistic scenario, the soil cadmium content reaches the national soil cadmium standard I and II standards the most, followed by no mutation, and the least pessimistic. From now to the future, the areas with the greatest changes are in central and northeastern Sichuan, including Chengdu, Deyang, Meishan, Leshan, and Guangyuan. Under the optimistic scenario, soil cadmium pollution develops in a benign direction, and large areas are transformed into areas with low cadmium content. In the no-mutation scenario, the area with low cadmium content has shrunk, and the polluted area has relatively expanded. In a pessimistic state, this pattern continues to deteriorate, and the distribution of first-level soil cadmium-contaminated areas is sparse. In addition, cities such as Chengdu and Meishan are always in stable areas, including Renshou, Pujiang, Qionglai, and so on. These areas are of great significance for the cultivation of L. chuanxiong.

(4) Under the four climate change scenarios in 2050 and 2070 (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5), the planning results for L. chuanxiong corresponding to the three soil cadmium pollution prediction scenarios are extremely high difference. On the whole, the first-level ecologically suitable areas of L. chuanxiong were the most distributed in the optimistic state, followed by no mutation, and the least pessimistic. For the second-level ecologically suitable areas, the most non-mutational situation, followed by optimism, and the least pessimism. Qionglai, Xinjin, and Pujiang in Chengdu have always been the core areas of distribution, and are regarded as the most preferred areas among the first-class ecologically suitable areas in L. chuanxiong. In the absence of mutation and pessimism, the ecologically suitable areas for L. chuanxiong are mostly concentrated in Chengdu and Meishan, while the rest of the regions fluctuate greatly.

(5) Under the future climate change, the high and medium suitable areas of L. chuanxiong will change greatly. The high suitable area mainly extends to the south with Chengdu as the center, while the medium suitable area is mainly concentrated at the junction of Sichuan and Chongqing, and the center of gravity gradually moves eastward.  The increase and decrease trend of the suitable area of L. chuanxiong high or medium suitable areas is generally increasing, but with the passage of time, the increased area gradually decreases, while the shrinking area gradually expands. The traditional Road products of L. chuanxiong such as Chengdu and Meishan are relatively stable, and the most stable change in the suitable area is the climate change scenario of RCP8.5 in 2050, with an unchanged area of 119,232.07 km2. The migration results of the centroid in the suitable area of L. chuanxiong high or medium suitable areas show that the existence of river systems may have a huge impact on the distribution of Chuanxiong, and its migration almost always points to the vicinity of the river. In addition, with the further intensification of climate change, the suitable area of L. chuanxiong has gradually moved to the south.


参考文献总数:

 100    

作者简介:

 何平,研究方向为中药资源,主要从事于中药材的生境规划研究,以第一作者发表学术论文5篇。    

馆藏号:

 硕0705Z1/22010    

开放日期:

 2023-06-15    

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