中文题名: | 我国人口老龄化对居民消费的影响研究 |
姓名: | |
保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 025200 |
学科专业: | |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 应用统计硕士 |
学位类型: | |
学位年度: | 2023 |
校区: | |
学院: | |
研究方向: | 人口老龄化和居民消费 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2023-06-19 |
答辩日期: | 2023-05-25 |
外文题名: | RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF CHINA'S POPULATION AGING ON RESIDENTS' CONSUMPTION |
中文关键词: | |
外文关键词: | Population aging ; Degree of aging development ; Urban and rural residents ; Consumption level ; Consumption structure ; Feasible generalized least squares ; Gray correlation model |
中文摘要: |
在当今世界的经济和社会发展中,人口老龄化已经成为一种不可逆转的趋势。作为人口大国,中国的老龄化形势十分严峻。根据国务院第七次全国人口普查数据显示,我国有超过 1.9 亿人口的年龄在 65 岁及以上,占总人口的 13.5%,比 2000 年正式步入老龄化社会增加了 6.5%,表明我国的人口结构老龄化速度很快。不同地区之间的老龄化情况存在着明显异,随着老年人成为越来越重要的消费群体,他们的特殊消费需求会使得居民消费水平和消费结构发生变化。同时,改革开放以来,我国经济发展十分迅速,而消费是促进经济持续增长的重要因素之一。扩大消费不仅有助于社会再生产和拉动内需,还能促进居民就业,满足人民对美好生活的需求。消费主要受收入的影响,而我国城乡发展不平衡的问题长期存在,城乡收入差距明显,社会经济发展也不平衡不充分。 为了探究我国人口老龄化问题,并着重探讨人口老龄化如何影响城乡居民消费,本文采用了文献分析法、描述性统计法、比较分析法和计量分析法,首先,对相关的核心 概念进行界定,并对文章研究背景及意义、研究思路、研究方法和创新点进行阐述;其次,在学习老龄化影响居民消费的理论基础的前提下从消费水平和消费结构两个方面梳理了相关的国内外文献,包括研究的进展、研究方法和理论框架;再次,介绍我国老龄化发展现状以及居民消费水平和消费结构的发展现状,分析了老龄化影响居民消费水平和消费结构的作用机制、途径和结果,包括老年人口的消费需求、消费方式、消费习惯消费市场和消费行为的变化,居民消费结构的变化、社会保障体系的改变等;最后,选取 2005-2020 年我国相关的省级面板数据,将我国除港澳台外的 31 个地区按照老龄化程度划分为高、中、低三个区域,引入可行的广义最小二乘法和灰色关联度模型对面板数据建模进行实证检验,研究我国不同区域内人口老龄化和城乡居民消费水平及消费结构的关系,并提出针对老龄化影响居民消费的措施和建议,包括社会保障体系的改善、养老服务体系的建设、消费品和服务的创新和优化等,指出研究的不足之处,并展望相关领域的研究方向和未来的发展趋势。 |
外文摘要: |
In the economic and social development of the world today, population aging has become an irreversible trend. As a large population country, China's aging situation is very serious. According to the data of the 7th National Census of the State Council, more than 190 million people in China are aged 65 and above, accounting for 13.5% of the total population, which is 6.5% more than the official entry into the aging society in 2000, indicating that China's population structure is aging rapidly. There are obvious differences in the aging situation between different regions, and as the elderly become an increasingly important consumer group, their special consumption needs will make the residents' consumption level and consumption structure change. Meanwhile, since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed very rapidly, and consumption is one of the important factors to promote sustained economic growth. Expanding consumption not only helps social reproduction and boosts domestic demand, but also promotes employment of residents and meets people's demand for a better life. Consumption is mainly influenced by income, and the problem of unbalanced urban and rural development in China has existed for a long time, with obvious income disparity between urban and rural areas and unbalanced and insufficient socio-economic development. In order to explore the problem of population aging in China and focus on how population aging affects urban and rural residents' consumption, this paper adopts literature analysis, descriptive statistics, comparative analysis and econometric analysis. First, the relevant core concepts are defined, and the article's research background and significance, research ideas, research methods and innovation points are elaborated; second, the theoretical basis of aging affecting residents' consumption is studied on the Secondly, on the premise of studying the theoretical foundation of aging affecting residents' consumption, we sort out the relevant domestic and foreign literature from two aspects of consumption level and consumption structure, including the progress of research, research methods and theoretical framework; again, we introduce the current situation of aging development in China and the development of residents' consumption level and consumption structure, and analyze the mechanism, pathways and results of aging affecting residents' consumption level and consumption structure, including the consumption demand, consumption mode, consumption habits consumption market and consumption behavior of the elderly population , changes in consumption habits consumption market and consumption behavior, changes in residents' consumption structure, changes in social security system, etc.; finally, the relevant provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2020 are selected, 31 regions in China except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan are divided into three regions according to the degree of aging as high, medium and low, and feasible generalized least squares and gray correlation models are introduced to model the panel data for The empirical tests are conducted to study the relationship between population aging and urban and rural residents' consumption levels and consumption structures in different regions of China, and to propose measures and suggestions to address the impact of aging on residents' consumption, including the improvement of the social security system, the construction of the pension service system, the innovation and optimization of consumer goods and services, etc. The shortcomings of the study are pointed out, and the research directions and future development trends in related fields are foreseen. |
参考文献总数: | 63 |
馆藏地: | 总馆B301 |
馆藏号: | 硕025200/23105Z |
开放日期: | 2024-06-19 |