中文题名: | 制度主义视角下地方政府债务风险探究-以华北区域地方债务为例 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | 中文 |
学科代码: | 125200 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 公共管理硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2019 |
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研究方向: | 公共管理 |
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提交日期: | 2019-06-11 |
答辩日期: | 2019-06-02 |
外文题名: | RESEARCH ON THE DEBT RISK OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN CHINA FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF INSTITUTIONALISM-A CASE STUDY OF LOCAL DEBT IN NORTH CHINA |
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中文摘要: |
当前我国经济正处于转轨制发展的关键时期、新经济增长新动能培育的重要节点,中央提出 “防风险、精准扶贫、污染防治”三大攻坚战则是从微观的角度有重点进行工作部署,并明确提出“重点防控金融风险”,把防控金融风险上升到治国理政和国家战略的高度。当前我国地方政府债务风险是我国主要金融风险来源。2018年末中央经济工作会议强调贯彻落实“巩固、增强、提升、畅通”八字方针,为进一步防范和化解金融风险成果提出了新的要求。2018年财政部下发23号文,对金融企业为政府融资平台融资进行约束,政府融资平台融资渠道大幅收缩。然而,经济新常态使得我国宏观经济从高速发展调整到中高速发展,各地政府性资金紧张已成不争的事实,存量债务的还本付息需要大量的资金。
本文以制度主义理论为基础,从制度变迁和制度稳定性的角度阐述了当前公共债务管理模式和工具的理论。同时本文分析了地方政府债务风险积累的主要原因,结果表明地方政府债务风险主要来源于财政分权、地方政府官员考核机制以及公共债务管理无序化;本文在分析美国和日本地方政府公共债务管理模式基础上,总结了国外地方政府债务管理的主要经验是中央政府适度承担地方债务风险、用法律标准严格控制地方政府债务风险和用竞争的方式来调节风险和收益之间的关系,为本文探究我国地方政府债务风险的应对提供依据。同时本文从显性债务和隐性债务角度实际测度了当前我国地方政府债务的主要规模和变动情况。结果表明,当期我国显性债务存量有限,显性债务规模可控。同时本文测度了当前我国整体地方政府隐性债务规模,结果显示当前我国地方政府隐性债务规模约32万亿,债务风险较为明显;同时本文债务率的测度结果显示,当前我国地方政府显性债务率保持在90%—150%的可控区间内,但是修正的债务率结果显示有四个省份债务率超过150%,风险较为明显。此外本文还以华北地区为例详细分析了当前华北地区地方政府隐性债务规模,结果显示地方政府隐性存量化解亟待长效机制解决、隐性债务化解未来充满挑战。
基于以上研究结果,本文提出从规范地方政府公共债务管理、健全风险监管体系、建立风险预警机制以及创新地方政府债务风险方式等方向引导地方政府融资平台推进债务重组、遏制隐性债务增量,积极化解存量隐性债务、开源节流,提高财政资金运用效率,更好的预防和化解地方政府债务风险。
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外文摘要: |
At present, China's economy is in a critical period of transition development and an important node of cultivating new momentum of economic growth. The central government proposes three major battles of "risk prevention, precise poverty alleviation and pollution prevention" to focus on work deployment from a micro perspective, and clearly puts forward "key prevention and control of financial risks", so as to raise the prevention and control of financial risks to a high level of governance and national strategy. 。 At present, local government debt risk is the main source of financial risk in China. At the end of 2018, the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the implementation of the eight-character policy of "consolidation, enhancement, promotion and smoothness", which put forward new requirements for further preventing and resolving financial risks. In 2018, the Ministry of Finance issued No. 23 to restrict the financing of government financing platform by financial enterprises, and the financing channels of government financing platform contracted substantially. However, the new normal economy makes our macro-economy adjust from high-speed development to medium-high-speed development. It is an indisputable fact that local governments are short of funds. The repayment of debt in stock needs a lot of funds.
Based on the theory of institutionalism, this paper expounds the current theory of public debt management model and tools from the perspective of institutional change and institutional stability. At the same time, this paper divides the main reasons for the accumulation of local government debt risk. The results show that the local government debt risk mainly comes from fiscal decentralization, local government officials'assessment mechanism and disorder of public debt management. This paper also analyses the public debt management modes of local governments in the United States and Japan, and summarizes the main experience of foreign local government debt management is moderately assumed by the central government. Local debt risk, strict control of local government debt risk by legal standards and adjustment of the relationship between risk and return by means of competition provide the basis for this paper to explore the response of local government debt risk in China. At the same time, from the perspective of explicit debt and implicit debt, this paper actually measures the main scale and changes of local government debt in China. The results show that the stock of explicit debt is limited and the scale of explicit debt is controllable. At the same time, this paper measures the scale of implicit debt of local governments in China, and the results show that the scale of implicit debt of local governments in China is about 32 trillion yuan, and the risk of debt is more obvious.
At the same time, the measurement results of the debt rate in this paper show that the dominant debt rate of local governments in China is maintained in the controllable range of 90%-150%. However, the revised debt rate shows that the debt rate of four provinces exceeds 150%. The risk is more obvious.In addition, this paper takes North China as an example to analyze the scale of implicit debt of local governments in North China in detail. The results show that the solution of implicit debt of local governments needs to be solved by long-term mechanism. The future of debt resolution is full of challenges.
Based on the above findings, this paper proposes to guide the local government financing platform to promote debt restructuring, curb the increase of implicit debt, actively resolve the implicit debt in stock, open up sources and reduce expenditure, and improve the efficiency of the use of financial funds from the aspects of standardizing local government public debt management, improving risk supervision system, establishing risk early warning mechanism and innovating local government debt risk mode. Solve implicit debt risk.
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参考文献总数: | 59 |
作者简介: | 作者就读于北京师范大学政府管理学院MPA专业,目前从在银行从事相关工作,因接触政府融资平台业务较多,深知地方政府债务风险,故毕业论文选择此方向进行探究。 |
馆藏号: | 硕125200/19036 |
开放日期: | 2020-07-09 |