中国经济经过四十多年的快速发展，常住城镇人口比例已经突破60%。党的十八大报告提出了“新型城镇化”发展概念，标志着中国迈入城镇化发展的重要阶段。然而，在现有财税制度背景下，当地方政府在面临财政压力时，可能采取诸如加大税收征管频率、选择性出台政策和降低污染门槛等行政手段，或者通过干预信贷资金配置、财政预算支出结构和国有企业市场化经营和等经济手段来扩充财源，带来环境污染、民生保障不足和产业升级困难等问题，使得地方发展方向与新型城镇化的目标相背离，给新型城镇化发展带来不确定性。鉴于此，本文聚焦地方财政压力对新型城镇化的影响，并进一步探索影响机制，旨在为建立现代化的财税体制，更好地从制度层面推动新型城镇化高质量发展提供决策参考。

本文从财政失衡这一视角出发，首先从理论上分析财政压力对新型城镇化的直接影响机制，并通过引入产业结构合理化与财政压力虚拟变量的交叉项，研究其对新型城镇化建设的间接作用机制，提出假说。其次，借助2005-2018年我国省级面板数据和利用固定效应模型进行实证分析，结论体现在直接和间接影响两个方面。直接影响方面，（1）整体上来看，财政压力对新型城镇化发展的作用整体表现为二次函数的倒U型曲线关系，当财政压力大于整体临界值1.7988时，其对新型城镇化具有直接抑制作用，反之则能够促进新型城镇化发展。（2）分区域来看，财政压力在东、中和西部地区对新型城镇化的影响与整体并无差异。但中部地区的财政压力临界值最大，该区域财政压力分布于这一数值两端的样本数相差不大；东部地区的财政压力临界值最小，该区域财政压力小于临界值的样本数较多。（3）分法制化环境来看，财政压力在不同法制化环境对新型城镇化的影响与整体并无差别，但是在高法制化环境中的财政压力临界值更大。间接影响方面，当财政压力超过样本均值1.2648时，将使得产业结构对新型城镇化发展的带动效果受到一定程度弱化。分区域来看，这种弱化作用在中部地区表现最强，而在东部地区表现最弱；分法制化环境来看，这种弱化效果在高法制化环境中相对较小。

最后，依据实证结果提出政策建议：一是短期来看，要利用好中央政府的转移支付工具来解决地方政府的“燃眉之急”；二是长期来看，要从制度方面下手，构建有地方政府参与且能够与其事责相匹配的更加合理财政制度；三是完善地方政府的绩效考核制度，将与新型城镇化发展相关的民生保障和环境治理等纳入考核范围；四是推动产业的更替转型，努力培植新的增长点和财税来源，减少对低端产业的依赖。

With more than 40 years of rapid economic development, The proportion of permanent urban residents has exceeded 60% In China. The report of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China Proposed the Term of "new urbanization", Marking China's entry into an important stage of urbanization development. However, in the context of the existing fiscal and taxation system, Local governments may adopt administrative measures When a facing fiscal pressure, such as increasing the frequency of tax collection and management, selectively introducing policies and lowering pollution thresholds, or by intervening in the allocation of credit funds and fiscal budget expenditures. The structure and market-oriented operation of state-owned enterprises and other economic means to expand financial resources may bring about environmental pollution, insufficient livelihood security, and difficulties in industrial upgrading, making the direction of local development deviate from the goal of new urbanization and bringing new urbanization uncertainty. In view of this, this article focuses on the impact of local fiscal pressure on the new urbanization and further explores the impact mechanism, which may bring practical significance to the establishment of a modern fiscal and taxation system and the promotion of new urbanization.

Starting from the perspective of fiscal imbalance, this paper first theoretically analyzes the direct impact mechanism of fiscal pressure on new urbanization and introduces the cross-term of industrial structure rationalization and fiscal pressure dummy variables to study its indirect influence mechanism on the construction of new urbanization, then puts forward hypotheses. Secondly, With Chinese provincial panel data from 2005 to 2018, the fixed effects model is used for empirical testing. The results are shown in two aspects: direct and indirect effects. (1) On the whole, the effect of fiscal pressure on the development of new urbanization is represented by a quadratic inverted U-curve relationship. When fiscal pressure is greater than the overall critical 1.7988, it has a direct inhibitory effect on new urbanization, and vice versa, it can promote the development of new urbanization. (2) From a regional perspective, However, the critical value of fiscal pressure in the central region is the largest, and the number of samples with fiscal pressure distributed at both ends of this value is not much different; the critical value of fiscal pressure in the eastern region is the smallest, and there are more samples with fiscal pressure less than the critical value in this region. (3) From the perspective of legalized environment, the impact of fiscal pressure on new urbanization in different legalized environments is no different from the overall impact, but the critical value of fiscal pressure in a highly legalized environment is greater. In terms of indirect effects, when the fiscal pressure exceeds the sample average value of 1.2648, it will weaken the rationalization of the industrial structure to promote new urbanization and indirectly be detrimental to the development of new urbanization. From a regional perspective, This negative impact is strongest in the central region and weakest in the western region; from the perspective of legalized environment, this weakening effect is relatively small in a highly legalized environment.

Finally, based on the empirical results, policy recommendations are put forward: First, in the short term, Our Governments must make good use of the central government’s transfer payment tools to solve the local government’s "immediate needs"; second, in the long term, we must start from the institutional perspective to establish a balance between financial and administrative powers. Matching modern fiscal and taxation system; third is to include people's livelihood security and environmental governance related to the development of new urbanization into the scope of evaluation; Which will improve the performance evaluation system of local governments; fourth is to promote the transformation of industries, strive to cultivate new growth points and fiscal and taxation Sources, and reduce dependence on low-end industries.