随着我国城市化的迅速发展，人们对城市居住环境有了更高要求，而未来城市扩展，及其相关联的人口分布、城市选址以及土地利用类型转换等问题，均将深度影响城市发展的健康与可持续性。本文利用元胞自动机（Cellular Automata，CA）,基于SSPs共享社会经济路径下的宁夏市级人口情景，结合地理信息系统(GIS),模拟了2030年和2050年宁夏各城市扩展，并分析了不同路径下的主要城市发展变化情况。具体结果如下：（1）基于SSPs人口情景数据，结合地形影响、交通通达性、城市邻近性和土地利用综合影响，构建了CA模型；经过5000次叠代优选了影响因素权重，模型模拟精度达81.3%。（2）未来2030、2050年，受地形等因素影响银川市城市扩展主要方向为向南与向东；吴忠市主要向北、向东扩展，城市之间有逐渐靠近的趋势；固原市城市沿谷地走向发展；中卫市以及石嘴山市两市沿城市中心向四周扩展。此外，五种路径下，未来城市扩展速度变化较大的城市是吴忠市和固原市。

With the rapid development of urbanization in China, people have higher requirements for urban living environment. In the future, urban expansion, population distribution, urban site selection, land use type conversion and other issues related to it will deeply affect the health and sustainability of urban development. In this paper, Cellular Automata (CA) is used to simulate the urban expansion of ningxia in 2030 and 2050 based on the SSPs population scenario of ningxia under the Shared social and economic path, and geographic information system (GIS) is combined to analyze the development and changes of major cities under different paths. The specific results are as follows:(1) Based on the SSPs population scenario data, the CA model is constructed by combining the topographic impact, traffic accessibility, urban proximity and the comprehensive impact of land use. After 5000 iterations, the weight of influencing factors was optimized, and the simulation accuracy reached 81.3% .(2) In the future 2030 and 2050, the main direction of urban expansion in yinchuan city will be southward and eastwards under the influence of terrain and other factors. Wuzhong city mainly expands to the north and east, and there is a trend of gradual proximity between cities. Guyuan city develops along valley; Zhongwei city and shizuishan city extend around the city center. In addition, wuzhong and guyuan are the cities with great changes in future urban expansion speed under the five paths.