水资源系统是由区域内各水体和建筑工程单元构成的复杂系统。河西走廊地处干旱区，同时也是我国西部大开发的重要支点。然而，气候变化下祁连山“水塔”发生显著变化，区域用水需求不断增加，河西走廊水资源系统面临水短缺、洪水干旱以及水质污染等多重干扰和风险。水资源系统恢复力（Water Resource System Resilience）研究基于社会-生态系统视角，有助于减少系统对外界干扰的暴露度和脆弱性，提高区域水资源管理水平。然而，目前仍缺乏对河西走廊水资源系统恢复力的系统研究。鉴于此，本文首先通过构建基于水资源系统恢复力指数（WRI）的评估框架，评估2011~2019年水资源系统恢复力时空格局；随后，使用地理探测器和计量经济模型分析WRI影响机制；最后，进一步使用障碍度模型对河西走廊WRI提升路径进行探讨。主要结论如下：

（1）2011~2019年河西走廊WRI整体上呈上升趋势，在空间分布上总体呈现从主要河流上游到下游逐渐降低、从西部向东部逐渐降低的特征。区域供水、需水和支撑3个子系统空间分布重心在九年间均向东南移动，这是城镇化和气候变化共同作用的结果。

（3）经济发展水平和供水保障能力一直是WRI的主导因素，而生态环境水平的影响一直处于辅助地位且一再降低。制度保障能力高开低走，逐渐被社会发展水平和用水高效能力所取代，这也体现了前期水管理制度的完善能够持续性转化为社会发展动力，提升水资源系统恢复力。

（4）分析气候变量对WRI的影响发现，对大多数区域而言，温度是WRI的格兰杰原因。预测发现，暖湿化在黑河流域内可以赋能WRI提升；但在疏勒河流域内暖湿化仅能在短期内产生正向影响作用，而后影响消失甚至产生负面影响；而石羊河流域内暖湿化影响在年际波动较大。

（5）水资源系统恢复力的障碍主要来源于经济发展水平、供水保障能力和用水效率方面，九年间由“节水-生态”主导方向逐渐向“供水-生态”方向的过渡，表明社会经济建设与生态建设协同推进有助于河西走廊地区水资源系统恢复力的全面提高。

研究有助于深入认识河西走廊水资源系统恢复力时空演变及其驱动机理和阻碍因素，也为提升区域水资源综合管理水平、促进区域社会-生态系统高质量发展提供科学依据。

The water resources system consists of various water bodies and engineering units within a region, forming a complex system. The Hexi Corridor is located in an arid region and is also a crucial pivot for the development of China's western regions. Under climate change, the variability of the "water tower" in the Qilian Mountains poses significant risks, while downstream regions increasingly rely on the water tower. The resilience of the water resources system can be enhanced by improving water resource management to reduce exposure and vulnerability to disturbances such as water scarcity, flood disasters, and water pollution. Therefore, there is an urgent need to study the spatiotemporal variations and mechanisms of resilience in the water resources system of the Hexi Corridor from a socio-ecological system perspective, providing important scientific basis for modern water resource management and security construction.

This paper focuses on the resilience of the water resources system in the Hexi Corridor. Firstly, an assessment framework for the resilience of the water resources system is constructed to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns of resilience from 2011 to 2019. Secondly, the impact mechanisms of resilience are analyzed using geographic detectors and econometric models. Finally, the enhancement paths of resilience in the water resources system of the Hexi Corridor are discussed using obstacle degree models. The main conclusions are as follows:

Firstly, the resilience of the water resources system in the Hexi Corridor showed an overall upward trend from 2011 to 2019. Spatially, it generally decreased from the upstream to the downstream of the main rivers and from west to east. The water resources system in the entire corridor is divided into three subsystems: water supply, water demand, and support, with the spatial distribution center of the subsystems generally shifting southeastward over the nine years, which is the result of the combined effects of urbanization and climate change.

Secondly, the level of economic development and water supply guarantee capacity have always played a dominant role in the resilience of the water resources system, while the influence of the ecological environment level has remained auxiliary and continuously decreased. The capacity of institutional guarantees has fluctuated, gradually being replaced by the level of social development and water use efficiency, reflecting the transformation of the previous water management system into a sustainable driving force for social development and enhancing the resilience of the water resources system.

How do climate variables affect the resilience of the water resources system in the Hexi Corridor? Analysis and prediction reveal that, for most regions, temperature is the main factor affecting the resilience of the water resources system. The prediction indicates that warming and humidification can enhance resilience in the Heihe River Basin, but in the Shule River Basin, the positive impact of warming and humidification only exists in the short term, after which it disappears or even has a negative impact. In the Shiyang River Basin, the impact of warming and humidification fluctuates greatly annually. This suggests that regions with immature water resources system management under current conditions face various crises brought by warming and humidification in the medium to long term.

Finally, the obstacles to resilience of the water resources system mainly come from economic development level, water supply guarantee capacity, and water use efficiency. The transition from the "water supply-social" dominant direction to the "water supply-ecological" direction over nine years indicates that the coordinated promotion of social and economic development and ecological construction contributes to the comprehensive improvement of resilience in the water resources system of the Hexi Corridor.