中文题名: | 中国资本外逃规模核算:2006-2016 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | 中文 |
学科代码: | 025200 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 应用统计硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2018 |
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提交日期: | 2018-06-17 |
答辩日期: | 2018-05-23 |
外文题名: | THE SCALE ACCOUNTING OF CAPITAL FLIGHT IN CHINA: 2006-2016 |
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中文摘要: |
资本外逃被定义为超出一国政府管控范围的,为规避国内政治或经济风险、逃避外汇管制,利用变相合法或非法的方式流出境内的国内资本。随着我国经济减速调整及经济基本面情况的变化。近年来,我国资本外逃呈增速上涨现象,在相当程度上对我国宏观经济产生了不利影响。然而,有关资本外逃规模的估算存在多维度视角,一直以来并未形成统一共识。本文在前人研究基础上,从国际收支平衡表入手,对资本外逃进行了重新核算,致力于统一资本外逃估算中的各类指标口径,并在此基础上分析我国资本外逃规模与外逃渠道的变化。
在具体核算方法上。文献整理显示,资本外逃规模核算的方法主要有四种,每种方法都有其各自的优缺点,本文选择间接法和权益差额调整法相结合的方式对我国2006-2016年的资本外逃规模进行核算。相比于间接法和综合法,直接法虽然简便易行,但是没有区分正常的资本流出,而综合法又存在较大的核算误差。考虑到间接法的测算范围涵盖广泛,且数据较易获取,结合权益差额调整法对进出口贸易伪报数据做出估算,相对来说是较为完整的核算方法。
本文研究显示,第一,2006-2016年我国国际收支平衡表中的资金来源与资金运用项差额总体趋势不断上升,说明从国际收支平衡表各项上反应出的资本外逃额不断增加;第二,进出口高低报额与资本外逃额的变化趋势基本一致,说明一部分漏计的资本外逃额对总的资本外逃额的变化影响较大;第三,近两年来我国资本外逃规模快速增加,2016年高达5000多亿美元。结合我国的实际情况,本文提出了针对防范资本外逃的政策启示,建立资本外逃防范监控机制、推进金融深化改革、从制度创新方面抑制资本外逃。
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外文摘要: |
Capital flight is defined as domestic capital flowing out of the territory, which is beyond the scope of government control of a country. To avoid domestic political or economic risks, escape foreign exchange control, and use illegal or legal methods. In recent years, China’s capital flight has increased at a rate of growth, which has affected macroeconomic stability to a considerable extent. However, there are multi-dimensional perspectives on the estimation of the size of capital flight, and no consensus has been reached.Based on previous research, this paper recalculates the items related to capital flight in the Balance of Payments Statement, and seeks to unify various indicators in the estimation of capital flight, and on this basis, analyzes the size of China’s capital flight.
In terms of specific accounting methods. The literature shows that there are mainly four methods for the calculation of the capital flight scale. Each method has its own advantages and disadvantages. This paper selects the indirect method and the equity difference adjustment method to calculate the scale of capital flight from 2006 to 2016 in China. . Compared with the indirect method and the comprehensive method, although the direct method is simple and easy to implement, it does not distinguish between normal capital outflows and the comprehensive law has a large accounting error. Considering that the indirect method has a wide range of measurement and the data is relatively easy to obtain, the use of the equity balance adjustment method to estimate the data of import and export trade misreporting is a relatively complete accounting method.
This study shows that, first, the overall trend of capital sources and fund use balances in China's balance of payments from 2006 to 2016 continues to increase, indicating that the amount of capital flight reflected from the balance of payments has increased; Secondly, the trend of changes in the level of high and low imports and exports is basically the same as the amount of capital flight, indicating that some of the missing capital flight has a greater impact on the change in the total amount of capital flight. Third, the rapid increase in the size of China’s capital flight in the past two years. In 2016, as much as more than 500 billion US dollars. In light of China's actual situation, this paper proposes corresponding policy inspiration against effective prevention of capital flight, promotes financial deepening reform, and suppresses capital flight from institutional innovation.
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参考文献总数: | 0 |
馆藏号: | 硕025200/18017 |
开放日期: | 2019-07-09 |