人类进入工业化社会以来，社会经济出现了惊人的增长速度，但是这种发展是以生态环境破坏和资源消费为代价的。面对上述问题，我们不得不重新审视人类与自然之间的关系，从而实现社会、经济、生态、环境之间的协调可持续发展便成为人类社会经济发展中追求的终极目标。本研究在查阅了大量国内外对于区域可持续发展的相关研究后，选取生态足迹模型分析方法开展阜新地区的可持续发展定量化研究工作。应用生态足迹模型对阜新地区1990年至2007年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行计算，经过比较得到阜新地区18年的生态赤字概况，并从多个方面深入地分析了产生生态赤字的原因；结合阜新地区万元GDP分析了其资源能源的利用效率，并对阜新地区生态足迹多样化及生态经济系统的动态发展能力做出分析；在探讨阜新地区生态足迹的同时分析阜新地区煤炭资源生态足迹的转移输出；建立阜新地区的环境库兹涅兹曲线，揭示论证阜新地区经济发展同环境之间的关系特征；通过灰色数列模型对阜新地区未来生态足迹和生态承载力做出科学预测，为寻求阜新地区社会、经济、生态协调发展提供理论和数据支撑。研究结果表明：(1)阜新地区1990年至2007年的各类生态足迹需求呈现递增趋势。历年生态足迹需求的均值按大小排列顺序依次为：化石能源燃料生态足迹、水域生态足迹、耕地生态足迹、草地生态足迹、林地生态足迹和建设用地生态足迹，其中化石能源燃料生态足迹构成约占总足迹需求的一半；(2)阜新地区1990年至2007年生态承载力整体上呈下降的趋势，耕地的生态承载力在所有的生态生产性土地承载力中下降趋势更为明显，这一趋势从2000年表现的更加突出。林地、草地、水域和建设用地虽然其生态承载力整体呈现下降趋势，但综合来说其下降趋势较为平缓；(3)阜新地区历年来一直存在着生态赤字，1990年生态赤字约为0.7088hm2，而到了2007年末其生态赤字已经达到了2.6360hm2，增加了约3.72倍，远远超过了其生态承载力。在生态足迹中化石能源用地占绝大部分，平均占总生态足迹的46.78%。阜新地区自2002年以来其生态承载力有微弱增加的趋势，但其增加的速度远低于其生态足迹的需求发展。通过分析发现阜新地区的生态赤字主要是由于人口数量的增加、居民生活水平日益提高、居民消费模式发生改变以及对于化石燃料的过度依赖造成的；(4)阜新地区万元GDP的生态足迹由1990年的11.52hm2/万元减少至2007年的3.56hm2/万元，90年代前期出现了较为明显的下降过程，但到了后期出现倒退的趋势，进入21世纪由于科学技术的发展进步，其数值呈现出明显的降低趋势。通过研究发现，1990年至2007年阜新地区生态足迹多样性总体上呈递增的态势，生态足迹的构成逐渐趋向平均化与合理化。阜新地区的生态经济发展能力总体上呈现逐年提高的趋势，其生态经济系统发展指数已由1990年的0.8650提升至2007年的2.2203，表明阜新地区随着经济的迅速发展，生态经济发展状况也随之变好；(5)阜新地区总开采煤炭资源的生态足迹呈现出一定程度的波动发展趋势，但总体趋势呈现上升态势，开采煤炭资源的生态足迹受当年科学技术水平、工业发展规模以及国家和地方产业政策的影响较为明显。这部分以占用阜新本地生态生产性土地的煤炭生态足迹被外输至区外，需要区外提供化石能源燃料的生态生产性土地而接纳。对于外购部分煤炭的生态足迹来说，近年来一直维持较低的水平；(6)随着经济发展水平的提升，阜新地区的人均生态足迹呈现出线性增加，但从环境库兹涅兹曲线来看，经济发展水平提高的同时环境质量正在逐步恶化，对于不同污染物的环境库兹涅兹曲线呈现出不同的发展变化趋势，同发达国家普遍适用的“倒U型”曲线有较大的差异，显示出其独特的发展方式；(7)根据灰色数列模型预测可知，阜新地区2008年的人均生态足迹为3.5102hm2/人，至2020年将达到4.5915hm2/人，是阜新地区1990年人均生态足迹的3倍。2020年可供给的人均生态承载力为0.6023hm2/人，2020年的生态足迹是其生态承载力的7.62倍；阜新地区未来年生态足迹仍以一定速度上升，而未来年当地的生态承载能力却呈现出降低的态势，未来年阜新地区的生态承载能力已经远远不能够满足其发展的生态足迹需求。如果不改变现有的发展模式，阜新地区的生态赤字将不断扩大，阜新地区人类社会活动强度远远超过该地区生态系统承载能力，区域可持续发展面临着非常严峻的考验。

With the rapid development of economy and scientific technology, the rapid population growth, resources, energy and crisis and the deteriorating ecological environment were followed. So we have to re-examine the relationship between man and nature in order to achieve society, economy, ecology, environmental to coordinate and sustainable development between human social and economic development, and which will be the ultimate goal to be pursued.This research examined a large number of regional sustainable development at home and abroad about studies, carried out the ecological footprint analysis to do a quantitative research on the sustainable development of the Fuxin city. The research applied the theoretical model to calculate the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Fuxin city from 1990 to 2007, the study obtained the ecological deficit profiles for 18 years through comparisons of the Fuxin region's, and did in-depth analysis of the several ecological deficit causes; The article combined with GDP of 10,000 yuan in Fuxin region to analyze its resources and energy efficiency, and the ecological footprint and ecological diversity of the dynamic development of the economic system capable of making were researched; With the analysis of the ecological footprint, ecological footprint of coal resources pass was studied. Finally, the future ecological footprint and ecological capacity were forecasted through the gray model. The purpose of the research was to provide the data and support the theory in order to coordinate the relationship of the society, economy and ecology.The results showed that:(1) All the ecological footprint increased continually from 1990 to 2007.In the end ,it was demonstrated that the mean of ecological footprint in descending order that fossil fuel energy, water ecological footprint, ecological footprint of cultivated land, grassland ecological footprint and forest land over the years. The ecological footprint of fossil energy fuels accounted about 50%.(2) The ecological carrying capacity of the overall appeared downward trend from 1990 to 2007, and the ecological carrying capacity of cultivated land in all aspects of the ecological productive decreased more significantly, the trend was obviously from 2000. Forest land, grassland, water and construction land showed the downward trend in the ecological carrying capacity, but its decline slowed.(3) There were ecological deficit over the years, the ecological deficit in 1990 was about 0.7088hm2, but to the end of 2007 it reached 2.6360hm2 and increased about 3.72 times, which was far exceeding its ecological capacity. Tthe ecological footprint of fossil fuel accounted for most of the land, the average of the total ecological footprint was 46.78%. Fuxin region’s ecological carrying capacity showed a weak increasing trend since 2002, but the rate of increase was far below the demand for the development of their ecological footprint. The analysis showed that the ecological deficit of the Fuxin region was mainly due to the increase in population, rising living standards, consumption patterns change, and excessive dependence on fossil fuels.(4) Fuxin region's ecological footprint GDP in 1990 was 11.52hm2 per 10,000yuan and it reduced to 3.56hm2 per 10,000 yuan in 2007.In the early 90's there was a more downward trend process, but the trend later reversed in the 21st century. Because of the development and progress of science and technology, its value appeared a clear trend of decrease. The research demonstrated that from 1990 to 2007 the ecological footprint diversity showed an increasing trend and the constitution of the ecological footprint was the average composition of the gradual trend and rationalization. The ecological economic development capacity showed a rising trend year by year, the ecological economic system development index had increased from 0.8650 in 1990 to 2.2203 in 2007, explained that as the rapid economic development the ecological and economic development were get better.(5) The total coal mining of ecological footprint showed a degree of volatility trend, the overall trend showed a rising one, the total development footprint of coal was affected obviously by the level of science and technology, industrial development and national scale, the industrial policy. This part of the local ecological productive land were traded to outside the region. Part of the ecological footprint for outsourcing in recent years had been to maintain a relatively low level.(6) With the enhancement of economic development, ecological footprint in Fuxin region showed a linear increase. The environmental Kuznets curve showed that the quality of the environment was gradually deteriorating while economic development was improving, the environmental Kuznets curve for different pollutants appeared different trends. The developed countries generally applied the "inverted U" curve, but the environmental Kuznets curve of fuxin was quite different and showed its unique development approach.(7)According to the results of the projection analysis, the per capita ecological footprint in 2008 was 3.5102hm2 and it would reach to 4.5915hm2 in 2020. The ecological footprint was 7.62 times its ecological carrying capacity in 2020. Ecological footprint for the coming year would still speed up, while the local ecological carrying capacity in future years would relatively stable, but it would show a downward trend. The ecological carrying capacity would be far from able to meet their development needs of the ecological footprint. If the existing development model wasn’t changed, ecological deficit would continue to expand. The regional sustainable development would face to a very severe test.