2013年，铁道部改制为铁路总公司，以公司化方式运营，铁路市场化不断深入。如何确定铁路客运车次的盈亏情况，应用盈亏分析指导旅客运输，有针对性地开展客运营销，保证客运营业收入能够稳步增长，成为铁路部门面临的重要课题。对于已开行旅客列车的盈亏，主要研究内容为在现有的付费制度条件下，计算旅客列车的收入和成本，计算分析每趟开行列车的盈亏状况；对于计划开行车次，需要预测其收入、成本和盈亏情况；为铁路部门提高旅客运输营运效益提供强大的决策支持服务。论文共分为七章，第一章主要论述了选题的背景及研究的目的和意义，介绍了国内外研究现状，以及本文的研究思路；第二章介绍了盈亏分析的基本理论；第三章对于车次收入进行了研究；车次实际收入由客票收入、车补收入和站补收入组成；对于计划开行车次，车次收入需要进行预测，文中给出了预测车次收入的模型，模型的关键为收入率，对客流预测方法进行了研究后，提出了收入率的预测模型。第四章分析了车次成本，将车次成本划分为付费支出和运输支出两部分，付费支出每项都有各自的计算方法；计算运输支出需要针对已开行车次和计划开行车次分开进行计算方法的研究。第五章对铁路客运盈亏分析系统进行了系统分析，并对主要功能进行了介绍。第六章围绕前面章节进行的研究，给出了应用实例。最后一章，对全文进行了总结，提出了本文的创新点，同时指出了需要进一步研究的问题。本文对铁路客运旅客列车的收入和成本构成进行了深入研究；借鉴客流预测模型，创建了车次收入预测模型；对如何求取各项车次成本给出了计算模型，结合作业成本法，给出了预测车次运输支出的方法；对如何构建铁路客运车次盈亏分析系统进行了介绍；最后以实际车次为例，应用论文中的公式，利用系统计算并预测其盈亏情况，验证了系统有效性和实用价值。

In 2013，the Ministry of Railways the restructuring to the China Railway Corporation，in corporate operations，the railway market continued in-depth. How to determine the gain or loss of railway passenger train, the application of breakeven analysis guidance passenger transport, passenger carry out targeted marketing to ensure steady growth in passenger revenue, become an important issue facing the railway sector.For the passenger train of profit and loss, the main research content is in the pay system of existing conditions, the calculation of the passenger train revenues and costs per trip, the calculation and analysis of train operating gains and losses. For the plan to train trips, need to predict the revenue, cost and breakeven situation. Provide powerful decision support services for the railway sector to improve the operating efficiency of passenger transport. This paper consists of seven chapters, the first chapter discusses the purpose and significance of the background and introduces the current research, and research ideas. The second chapter introduces the basic theory of breakeven analysis. The third chapter is studied for trips revenue, the train revenue consist of ticket income, train replacement ticket income and station replacement ticket income. For the plan to train trips, trips income need forecast, this paper presents a model to predict the train revenue, the key for the model is income rate, of passenger flow forecasting methods have been studied, the proposed rate of revenue forecasting model. The fourth chapter analyzes the train cost, the train cost is divided into two parts, paid expenses and transport expenses, paid expenses have each respective calculation method, transport expenses needs to calculate had train trips and plan trips separate research calculation method. The sixth chapter analyzes the system of passenger train breakeven analysis system, and the main function are introduced. The sixth chapter focuses on the research of the previous chapters, application example are given. In the end. the main research were summarized and the main innovations were proposed. The questions that should be studied more were presented in this paper.This paper in-depth study of the revenue and cost of railway passenger train. Learn from passenger flow forecasting model, creating train revenue forecast model. The calculation model of how to calculate the cost of trips are given, according to the activity-based costing method, gives the method to predict the train transport expenses. How to build a railway passenger trips on the profit and loss analysis system introduced. Finally based on the actual train as an example，application papers formula, use the system to calculate and predict its breakeven, verify the effectiveness and practical value of the system.