“一带一路”贯穿亚、欧、非三大洲，沿线地区自然环境差异大，从孕灾环境上来看，跨越高寒、高陡、高地震烈度区及太平洋和印度洋季风区，灾害类型多样、分布广泛、活动频繁、危害严重，是全球自然灾害频发区和灾害损失最严重地区。重大自然灾害的发生不仅会影响“一带一路”国家之间的互通，还可能引发社会、经济活动的连锁反应。因此，正确认识和科学理解“一带一路”地区灾害时空分布整体情况、灾情驱动机制以及灾害的综合风险特点，是保障 “一带一路”战略实施的基础。
本文选取了“一带一路”沿线，与我国有着协议合作的105个国家作为研究区，基于EM-DAT灾害数据库对“一带一路”地区灾害研究开展了三方面工作：一是通过时空分析描述了研究区内整体自然灾害状况，分析了研究区自然灾害人口伤亡及损失情况在整个全球格局下的占比及发展趋势，同时进行了各灾种自然灾害发生频次、造成人口死亡、受影响人口、经济损失等信息的时空分析。二是根据世界银行公布的有关社会经济发展、生态环境变化、制度建设健全等相关因子，通过结构方程模型的方式构建因果关系模型，探讨了灾情的驱动机制。三是将灾害信息空间化，利用地质和气象数据，通过随机森林预测出单灾种、全灾种、地质灾害、气象灾害的灾害敏感性。并使用敏感性结果，通过蒙特卡洛方法仿真出具有空间信息的灾害点位及损失信息，叠加区域承灾体脆弱性信息，计算并制出栅格尺度和国家尺度的灾害风险图。
研究发现1）“一带一路”地区灾害多发地多为沿地震带、海岸线地区，人员伤亡主要受地震、干旱和洪水灾害的影响，经济损失主要来自洪水和风暴灾害。1980-2016年，灾害发生频次占比全球64.97%，因灾死亡占比全球达79.95%。2）灾害发生后造成的灾情损失，不仅与致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体相关，也与整个社会的治理表现相关。区域灾情受灾害发生频次和社会经济发展的正向影响，影响因子分别为0.764和0.057；社会经济发展可能会增加社会财富从而增加灾害暴露，同时社会发展有可能提高社会设防能力从而降低脆弱性，形成一种相互制约的平衡关系；生态环境的变化会影响灾害发生敏感性，进而影响灾害发生频次导致灾害程度发生变化，直接作用到灾情的影响系数为0.237；社会体制的建设健全是社会生态系统的全局性因素，制度的改变会对社会经济发展和生态环境产生影响，两方面交互作用，最终对灾害的发生和损失产生相应影响。3）灾害风险受致灾因子危险性、灾害敏感性和暴露度的三方面影响。致灾因子危险性等级较高的地区主要集中在东南亚、地中海、喜马拉雅地震带等地区，占比约为整体的10%；低等级地区集中在亚欧大陆北部、非洲北部等地，占比约至整体面积的3/4。因灾致死风险高的地区主要集中在人口密度较大的亚洲东部和南部以及非洲中部等地区地区占比约为10%，经济损失风险较高的地区主要集中在经济体量较大、发展程度高的亚洲大陆东部、南部沿海及欧洲部分地区，面积占比约为27%。

The Belt and Road runs through the three continents of Asia, Europe and Africa. The natural environment along the route differs greatly and crosses the regions of high cold, high steepness, high seismic intensity, and the monsoon regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The types of disasters are diverse, widely distributed, frequent activities, and serious hazards. Areas with frequent natural disasters worldwide and the areas with the most disaster losses. The occurrence of major natural disasters will not only affect the communication between the countries along the “Belt and Road”, but may also trigger a chain reaction of social and economic activities. Therefore, a correct understanding and scientific understanding of the overall spatial and temporal distribution of disasters in the Belt and Road regions, the driving mechanism of disaster situations, and the comprehensive risk characteristics of disasters are the basis for ensuring the implementation of the “Belt and Road” strategy.
This paper selects 105 countries along the “Belt and Road” and has cooperation with China as research areas. Based on the EM-DAT disaster database, three aspects of disaster research in the Belt and Road area were carried out: First, the study was described by spatiotemporal analysis The overall natural disaster situation in the area, analyzed the proportion and development trend of natural disaster population casualties and losses in the study area under the entire global pattern, and carried out the frequency of various natural disasters, causing deaths, affected population, economy Spatio-temporal analysis of loss and other information. The second is to build a causal relationship model through structural equation model based on the relevant factors published by the World Bank on social and economic development, changes in the ecological environment, and sound system construction, and discuss the driving mechanism of the disaster. The third is to spatialize disaster information and use geological and meteorological data to predict the disaster susceptibility of single disaster types, full disaster types, geological disasters, and meteorological disasters through random forests. Using the sensitivity results, the Monte Carlo method is used to simulate the disaster location and loss information with spatial information, superimpose the vulnerability information of the regional disaster-bearing bodies, and calculate and prepare disaster risk maps at the grid and national scales.
The study found that 1) The disaster-prone areas in the “Belt and Road” areas are mostly along the seismic belt and coastline. The casualties are mainly affected by earthquakes, droughts and flood disasters, and the economic losses mainly come from floods and storm disasters. From 1980 to 2016, the frequency of disasters accounted for 64.97% of the world, and deaths due to disasters accounted for 79.95% of the world. 2) Disaster losses caused by disasters are not only related to disaster-causing factors, disaster-preparing environment and disaster-bearing bodies, but also to the governance performance of the entire society. Regional disasters are positively affected by the frequency of disasters and social and economic development, with impact factors of 0.764 and 0.057, respectively; social and economic development may increase social wealth and increase disaster exposure, while social development may increase social defense capabilities and reduce vulnerability, Form a balanced relationship of mutual restraint; changes in the ecological environment will affect the sensitivity of disasters, which in turn will affect the frequency of disasters and lead to changes in the degree of disasters. The coefficient of influence directly affecting the disaster is 0.237; the construction of a social system is a social ecosystem The global factors, changes in the system will have an impact on social and economic development and the ecological environment, and the two interactions will eventually have a corresponding impact on the occurrence and loss of disasters. 3) Disaster risk is affected by the hazards of hazards, disaster sensitivity and exposure. Areas with higher hazard levels of hazards are mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, the Mediterranean Sea, and the Himalaya earthquake zone, accounting for about 10% of the overall area; low-level areas are concentrated in northern Asia and Europe, northern Africa, and other places, accounting for about To 3/4 of the total area. Areas with a high risk of death from disasters are mainly concentrated in regions with high population density, such as eastern and southern Asia and central Africa, accounting for about 10%. Areas with a high risk of economic loss are mainly concentrated in large economies and development levels The eastern Asia, southern coast of high Asian continent and parts of Europe account for about 27% of the area.