- 无标题文档
查看论文信息

中文题名:

 中国高技术制造业产业链韧性及其影响因素研究    

姓名:

 杨璐娜    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 025200    

学科专业:

 应用统计    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 应用统计硕士    

学位类型:

 专业学位    

学位年度:

 2024    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 统计学院    

研究方向:

 经济与金融统计    

第一导师姓名:

 宋旭光    

第一导师单位:

 统计学院    

提交日期:

 2024-06-12    

答辩日期:

 2024-05-10    

外文题名:

 MEASUREMENT AND INFLUENCING FACTS OF THE CHINA'S HIGH-TECH MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIAL CHAIN RESILIENCE    

中文关键词:

 高技术制造业 ; 产业链韧性 ; 区域差异 ; 影响分析    

外文关键词:

 High Technology Manufacturing Industry ; Industry Chain’s Resilience ; Regional Difference ; Influencing Factors    

中文摘要:

高技术制造业是我国制造业中研发投入较高的一类重要产业,依托其技术密集等特点成为科技信息时代下实现高质量发展的重要力量。但由于外在环境不稳定性和内在区域发展差异性,我国高技术制造业产业链的健康发展仍有较大提升空间。高技术制造业产业链韧性是指我国高技术产业在应对外界压力或冲击时能够抵抗负面影响、迅速恢复原有状态、并通过创新等方式实现转型升级的动态能力。提升韧性水平对我国高技术制造业稳中向好的发展至关重要。

本文基于对产业链韧性和高技术制造业领域现有的研究基础,通过对于产业安全、产业创新、路径依赖等相关理论的梳理,提出从抵抗能力、恢复能力和更新能力三个维度界定我国高技术制造业产业链韧性水平,实现“稳链、补链、强链”的基本要求。首先,依托产业链韧性内涵和中国高技术产业(制造业)的分类,从抵抗能力、恢复能力和更新能力三个角度构建中国高技术制造业产业链韧性指标体系,并借助均值化数据预处理、面板数据熵值法和线性加权法测算2009-2022年我国30个省份的韧性水平。其次,分别从时序特征和空间特征对韧性水平的表现进行深入分析,在时序上,研究发现我国高技术制造业产业链平均的韧性水平呈现波动上升趋势且更新能力的提升最为明显,我国东、中、西部地区韧性差距明显且有扩大趋势且东部地区韧性优势突出;在空间上,借助ArcGIS软件的自然断点法发现了区域发展的梯度差异与东部优势,但从整体绝对值水平来说我国高技术制造业产业链韧性水平逐步增强,借助Dagum基尼系数分解发现区域差异有缓慢扩大趋势,且地区间差异是造成30个省份之间韧性水平不均衡的主要原因。再者,本文从维度因子和外部因素两个角度实证分析我国高技术制造业产业链韧性水平的影响因素,采用地理探测器模型探测高技术制造业产业链韧性各维度因子的解释能力,发现三大能力无论是单因子还是交互因子都对韧性水平的空间分布具有显著的强解释力;采用面板数据回归分析发现了在研究期间技术信息对韧性水平的显著正向作用,以及政策信息、外资基础和开放水平的负面影响,并进一步借助中介效应分析发现:在高技术制造业的技术密集型特征下,技术信息可以通过对地区专利发展水平的提升从而显著提高我国高技术制造业产业链韧性水平。最终,文章基于“稳链、补链和强链”视角,从科技发展、产业基础、国内外融合与区域产业链整合等角度提出针对性发展建议,助力我国高技术制造业产业链有机融合,实现有韧性、有弹性的健康发展。

外文摘要:

The high-tech manufacturing industry is one of the most crucial sectors in China's manufacturing industry, characterized by significant R&D investment. It has emerged as a key driver for China's high-quality development in the era of science, technology, and information. However, due to external environmental instability and inherent regional development disparities, there remains substantial room for improvement in the healthy development of China's high-tech manufacturing industry chain. The resilience of the high-tech manufacturing industry chain refers to China's high-tech industry's dynamic capacity to withstand adverse impacts, swiftly restore its original state, and achieve transformation and upgrading through innovation when confronted with external pressures or impacts. Enhancing this resilience is essential for ensuring the stable and robust development of the high-tech manufacturing industry.

Based on the existing research foundation of industry chain toughness and high-tech manufacturing industry, this paper proposes to define the level of industry chain toughness of China's high-tech manufacturing industry from the ability to resist, recover and update, and realise the basic requirements of "stable chain, complementary chain and strong chain" through the sorting of relevant theories of industrial security, industrial innovation and path dependence. Firstly, this paper relies on the connotation of industry chain toughness and the classification of China's high-tech industry (manufacturing sector) to develop a resilience index framework, measuring the toughness level of China's 30 provinces from 2009 to 2022 using averaged data preprocessing, panel data entropy method, and linear weighting method. Secondly, the performance of resilience level is analyzed from the time series characteristics and spatial characteristics respectively, and in terms of time series, it is found that the average resilience level of China's high-tech manufacturing industry chain shows a fluctuating upward trend and the improvement of renewal ability is the most obvious. In spatial terms, the gradient difference in regional development and the advantage of the eastern region are identified using the natural breakpoint method of ArcGIS software. However, the resilience level of China's high-tech manufacturing industry chain has gradually increased from an overall absolute value level. Through the use of the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, it was found that regional disparities are exhibiting a slow expansion trend, with inter-regional differences being the primary factor contributing to the uneven resilience levels among the 30 provinces. Additionally, this paper empirically investigates the influential factors affecting the resilience level of China's high-tech manufacturing industry chain, examining both dimensional and external factors, and adopts the geographic detector model to detect the explanatory power of the dimensional factors of the toughness of the high-tech manufacturing industry chain, and finds that the three major capabilities, whether they are single factors or interacting factors, all have a significant and strong explanatory power for the spatial distribution of the toughness level; and adopts the panel data regression analysis to find out the Using panel data regression analysis, it is found that during the study period, technical information has a significant positive effect on the toughness level, as well as the negative effects of policy information, foreign investment information and openness level, and it is further found with the help of mediation effect analysis that: under the high-technology manufacturing industry's high-technology characteristics, the technical information can significantly improve the toughness level of the high-technology manufacturing industry chain through the enhancement of the development level of regional patents. Finally, based on the perspective of "stable chain, complementary chain and strong chain", this paper puts forward targeted development suggestions from the perspectives of scientific and technological development, industrial foundation, domestic and foreign integration and regional industrial chain integration, so as to help China's high-tech manufacturing industry chain to integrate organically and realise the healthy development of toughness and elasticity.

 

参考文献总数:

 80    

馆藏号:

 硕025200/24048    

开放日期:

 2025-06-12    

无标题文档

   建议浏览器: 谷歌 360请用极速模式,双核浏览器请用极速模式