中学生进行专业选择的过程是真正对今后的职业展开思考的过程，如何根据自身实际情况选择最合适的方案，如何权衡自主性与家长建议之间的关系等，都会使中学生感到困扰和疑惑。帮助中学生树立生涯意识，增加对未来专业学习、职业道路的了解，同时更深入地了解自己，对中学生的专业选择乃至今后的职业选择都至关重要。因此，本研究以社会认知职业理论（Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994）和Holland职业兴趣理论（Holland, 1997）为基础，探讨中学生的自我效能感、兴趣、成就动机与专业选择的关系。 研究通过问卷调查法，测查北京、合肥、武汉等六座城市的643名中学生的兴趣、自我效能感、成就动机和专业选择倾向，并在第一次测试的六个月后，进行第二个时间点的追踪测试，最终得到200份配对数据。采用独立样本t检验分析不同性别、文理科别的中学生在七种专业类型下的兴趣与选择倾向上的差异，运用相关、回归分析探究了兴趣、自我效能感、成就动机与专业选择倾向之间的关系，并通过交叉滞后分析探讨兴趣与专业选择之间的准因果关系。 结果表明：（1）不同性别、文理科别的学生在不同的专业类型上的兴趣和专业选择倾向存在显著差异；（2）七种专业类型下，兴趣与自我效能感均能显著正向预测专业选择倾向；（3）自我效能感既能直接影响专业选择倾向，也能通过影响兴趣，进而对专业选择产生间接影响；（4）在艺术型和自然型中，成就动机可以调节自我效能感与兴趣之间的关系，成就动机越高，自我效能感的影响越大；（5）在现实型、艺术型、社会型、企业型中，前一时间点的兴趣，可以正向预测后一时间点的专业选择倾向。 基于两个时间点的测试结果，得出结论：自我效能感和兴趣对中学生的高考专业选择倾向具有预测效果，并且成就动机在这个过程中起调节作用；兴趣与专业选择倾向之间的准因果关系得到了部分证明。根据研究结论，学校和家长可以对中学生进行相应的职业生涯教育，提供探索自我、了解专业和职业的途径。建议通过培养兴趣和自我效能感，帮助中学生更好地发现自身优势，并学会结合多方面因素，做出适合自己的专业和职业选择。

Middle school students choosing college majors is a process that they seriously think about the future and career development. How to make the most appropriate choice based on their actual situation, and how to balance the relationship between their own preference and parents’ advice, makes middle school students puzzled. It’s necessary to help middle school students to develop career awareness and enhance their understanding of future study, career paths, and themselves. College major choice for middle school students is crucial to the career choice that they will make. Therefore, based on the social cognitive career theory (Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) and Holland's occupational interest theory (Holland, 1997), this study explores the relationship among self-efficacy, interest, achievement motivation and college major choice of middle school students. Instruments of interest, self-efficacy, achievement motivation, and college major choice intention were implemented on 643 middle school students at six cities in China. Data was collected through questionnaires at two times with an interval of six months. Independent sample t test was used to analyze the differences in interest and college major choice intention across seven major types in middle school students of different genders and subjects. Correlation and regression analysis was used to explore the relationship between interest, self-efficacy, achievement motivation, and college major choice intention. And the cross-lagged panel analysis was conducted to explore the quasi-causal association between interest and college major choice intention. The results showed that: (a) different gender and subject lead to different interest and college major choice intention; (b) across seven major types, both interest and self-efficacy have significantly positive influence on college major choice intention. (c) self-efficacy can affect college major choice intention directly, and it also has an indirect effect on choice intention, mediated by interests; (d) in Artistic and Natural type, achievement motivation can moderate the relationship between self-efficacy and interest; (e) in Realistic, Artistic, Social, and Conventional types, interest at previous time can positively predict college major choice intention at later time. Based on the results of data analysis, the conclusion was drawn: self-efficacy and interest can predict college major choice intention, where achievement motivation play the role as moderator; there is a quasi-causal association between interest and college major choice intention. According to the conclusion, middle school students should be provided with career education, ways to explore themselves and college majors. It’s suggested that middle school students should find their own advantages through combining their interests and sense of self-efficacy, in order to make suitable choices for college major and career.