随着中国经济增长和改革开放的深化，在积极引入外商直接投资（FDI）的同时中国企业也在积极展开对外直接投资（OFDI）。在上一个十年里，中国OFDI的规模激增，引起国际社会的广泛关注，与之伴随的是对中国OFDI的种种偏见与或有形或无形的种种障碍。从中国OFDI的发展实际出发，借助经济学的基本原理对这一现象展开理论探索、回应现实质疑，是本文的目的所在。

回顾经济发展史可以发现，OFDI首先体现为部分西方发达国家跨国公司的投资行为，后来逐渐成为部分发展中国家跨国公司的投资行为，并随着全球化浪潮的持续推进而广泛扩散。随着实践的发展，OFDI相关理论也得到了不断的发展和更新，保持了鲜活的适切度和解释力。但随着中国OFDI的发展，其呈现出投向多元化、行业多元化、区域与行业的风险度偏高等特征——其既有别于西方国家FDI的一般历程，也难以套用传统FDI的理论框架，从而激起了经济分析界和国际政治界对中国OFDI动机、盈利能力、模式可持续性等的持续关注、讨论乃至质疑。如有研究基于国际生产折衷理论提出“产业链完善”动机，有研究基于投资发展路径理论指出中国OFDI的“阶段性”特征，也有研究基于中国的经济体量提出“大国综合优势”论，但这些研究都无法很好解释中国公司为何选择在要素、资产、市场、制度等各方面都存在一定问题的发展中国家（例如“一带一路”沿线国家）展开投资的行为。由于纷争不定，不乏从其他角度提出的所谓“能源资源安全保障论”、“胡萝卜周边外交策略论”、“债务陷阱论”、“新殖民主义论”等种种揣测。

为了更合理地理解中国OFDI的新特征，本文采用合作博弈的框架来解析中国对外直接投资的模式。考虑其与传统的模式存在不同，本文称之为新模式。根据本文的逻辑推演，新模式主要包含三个方面的基本特征：（1）传统的竞争博弈角度下，母国公司到东道国的投资一般扮演着市场新进入者的角色；但从合作博弈的角度出发，中国OFDI尤其是在“一带一路”沿线国家的投资遵循“共商、共建、共享”的原则展开，并优先提供东道国短缺的公共产品，如基础设施建设投资等，因此这种关系更多是合作和互补的关系。（2）得益于中国OFDI带来的公共产品增加，东道国的要素禀赋得以开发，比较优势得以激活，从而实现经济发展、市场扩容和产业升级，引致更多的国际资本参与其工业化进程。（3）随着工业化进程的推进，相对落后的东道国劳动生产率逐步提升，宏观绩效进步明显，一般也意味着中国等国际资本能够获取丰厚的投资回报。因此基于合作博弈的分析框架，本文试图阐明中国OFDI“投资（提供公共产品）——引资（具有正外部性）——收获（经济绩效显著）”的三个阶段存在逐步推进和良性循环，并将之命名为中国OFDI的新模式——“三阶段推进论”。基于合作博弈思维的自然延伸，本文对“三阶段推进论”展开的必要条件也展开了初步探讨。

本文共分8章。第1章指出，实践的进步对中国OFDI的理论创新提出了要求。第2-7章则先后通过文献整理、理论推导、实证检验等方法提出并论证了中国OFDI的新模式“三阶段推进论”。其中，第2章梳理了FDI理论的发展脉络，总结并指出过去对中国OFDI模式的理解缺乏一般性，因此无法回应种种误解与质疑。第3章立足中国OFDI的实践，并基于公共产品理论、合作博弈理论进行逻辑推演，重点讨论了中国OFDI的“投资（提供公共产品）——引资（实现正外部性）——收获（创造经济绩效）”的全部过程。此后的第4、5、6章，则通过利用“一带一路”沿线国家、中国境外经贸合作区等样本的面板数据，以及作者实地参与调研的老挝的个案研究等多个角度，对中国OFDI提供公共物品、具备正外部性和经济绩效显著等三个主要假设展开了实证检验，其结论是明确的——中国的OFDI不仅具备公共物品提供的属性，而且其外部性为正且显著，并且其宏观绩效也是显著的——这意味着，中国OFDI不仅商业循环是自洽的，而且具有不同于其他国家的新特征、新模式。作为新模式的重要保障，文章第7章讨论了律法和政策在维护中国OFDI新模式中的重要性，并基于此给出政策建议。第8章对全文进行了简要总结，指出进一步探索的方向。

总体而言，当前中国OFDI的高速发展和多元化特征具有很高的研究价值。针对中国OFDI的最新实践，本文在理论层面采用了合作博弈的分析，在实证方面在统计、计量分析的基础上，补充了境外经贸合作区的视角和老挝的案例研究，提出并论证了中国OFDI的新模式——“三阶段推进论”。作为中国OFDI研究中的一项尝试，从研究视角、研究方法、研究框架角度为进一步的研究做出了铺垫。

With China's economic growth and the deepening of reform and opening up, Chinese companies are actively developing outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). In the last decade, China’s OFDI has surged, which caused widespread concern and discussion in the international community, accompanied by prejudice and various tangible or intangible obstacles. Based on the development of China’OFDI, the purpose of this paper is to explore this phenomenon theoretically and respond to practical queries with the help of the basic principles of economics.

Looking back at economic history, it is not difficult to find that FDI first embodied as the investment behavior of multinational companies of western developed countries, and later gradually became the investment behavior of multinational companies of developing countries, and it spread widely with the advancement of globalization. With the advancing practice, related OFDI theories have also been continuously updated and developed, maintaining a lively appropriateness and explanatory power. However, with the rapid increase of China’s OFDI, it has shown the characteristics with high regional and industry risks. It is different from the general process of FDI in Western countries, and it is difficult to apply the traditional OFDI theoretical framework. The differences stimulate the analysis, theorists, and even the political circles continue to discuss and even question the motives, profitability, and model sustainability of China's OFDI. Among them, some researches put forward the motivation of "Value Chain Improvement" based on the Eclectic Theory of International Production, some researches pointed out the "phased" characteristics of China's OFDI based on the Theory of Investment Development Path, and some researches put forward the Theory of “Comprehensive Advantages of Big Powers" based on the scale of China economy. However, none of these studies can well explain why Chinese companies choose to invest in developing countries (such as countries along the “Belt and Road”) with poor factors, assets, markets, systems, etc. Due to uncertain disputes, there have been speculations such as the so-called "energy and resource security guarantee theory", "carrot peripheral diplomatic strategy theory", "debt trap theory", and "neocolonial theory".

In order to better understand the new characteristics of China's OFDI, this paper uses the framework of Cooperative Game Theory to analyze the mode of China's foreign direct investment. Considering that it is different from the traditional model, this paper calls it the New Model. From a micro point of view, this model mainly contains three basic characteristics: (1) From the perspective of traditional Competitive Game, the investment from the Parent country to the Host country generally plays the role of a new entrant to the market. From the perspective of Cooperation Game, China’s OFDI, especially in the countries along the “Belt and Road” which adheres to the principle of co construction and sharing, prioritizes the provision of public products in the Host countries, such as infrastructure, etc. This kind of relationship is more of complementarity and cooperation. (2) Thanks to the increase in the supply of public goods, the Host country's factor endowments can be more fully utilized, and the comparative advantages can be activated, which will drive rapid economic development, market expansion and industrial upgrading, and thus attract more international capital to participate in its industrialization process. (3) With the advancement of industrialization, the labor productivity of host countries has increased, and the macro performance has improved significantly, which has made the return on investment of Chinese multinational companies and other international capitals correspondingly increased. Baesd on Cooperative Game thinking, this article attempts to clarify that China’s OFDI has achieved a virtuous circle of "Investment (providing public goods)-Attracting capital (with positive externalities)- Gains (significant macro performance)". This article calls it the New Model of China’s OFDI -the "Three-stage Advancing Theory". Further more, this article discusses the institutional environment in which the "Three-stage Advancing Theory" is implemented.

This article is divided into 8 chapters. Chapter 1 points out that the development of practice calls for theoretical innovation of China’s OFDI. Chapters 2-7 have successively put forward and demonstrated the "Three-stage Advancing Theory" of China's OFDI through literature collation, theoretical deduction, and empirical testing. Among them, Chapter 2 points out that traditional FDI theory cannot explain why China chooses to invest in developing countries where factors, assets, markets are relatively poor. Based on the theory of public products and Cooperative Game, Chapter 3 developes theoretical derivation, focusing on the "Investment (providing public products)-Attracting capital (realizing positive externalities)-Gains (creating macro performance) of OFDI ". The following chapters 4, 5, and 6 use panel data of countries along the “Belt and Road”, the construction of China Overseas Economic and Trade Cooperation Zones (COCZ), and the Laos case that the author has participated in the field investigation to conduct an empirical study. Empirical analysis was carried out on the three main assumptions of providing attributes, having positive externalities and significant economic performance, thus confirming the New Modle of China’s OFDI. As an important mechanism guarantee for the New Model, Chapter 7 discusses the importance of laws and contracts, and gives corresponding policy recommendations. Finally, Chapter 8 briefly summarizes and summarizes the full text, and points out the direction of further exploration.

In general, the rapid development and diversification of China’s OFDI has high research value. In response to the latest practice of China’s OFDI, this paper adopts Cooperative Game Framework at the theoretical level, supplements the perspective of COZC on the basis of metrological research, and puts forward and demonstrates a New Model of China’s OFDI-"Three-stage Advancement Theory". As an exploration in China's OFDI research, it paves the way for further research from the perspective of research perspective, research methods and framework.