中文题名: | 我国城乡收入差距影响因素探究及机制分析 ——基于2012-2020年数据分析 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 025200 |
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学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 应用统计硕士 |
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学位年度: | 2023 |
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研究方向: | 经济统计 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2023-06-13 |
答辩日期: | 2023-05-19 |
外文题名: | CHINESE URBAN AND RURAL INCOME GAP INFLUENCE FACTOR INQUIRY AND MECHANISM ANALYSIS—BASEDE ON DATA ANALYSIS FROM 2012 TO 2020 |
中文关键词: | |
外文关键词: | Income gap between urban and rural residents ; Variable screening ; Cluster analysis ; Two-way fixed effect model |
中文摘要: |
随着改革开放的不断深入,国家的经济逐渐转向高质量发展,人民收入水平不断提高,物质与精神生活更加丰富。2021年,我国人均国内生产总值达到1.25万美元,超过了世界人均GDP水平,城镇化率达到了64.72%。但是,城乡二元结构导致的资源分配不平衡,使得我国各个地区的城乡居民人均可支配收入仍然存在着不同程度上的差距。近年来,诸多学者已经在财政支出、互联网数字经济、普惠金融等领域有了一定的研究,并且许多领域对于城乡居民收入差距的影响机制也达成了一致的意见,但如数字经济对城乡收入差距的影响也有不同意见。 为了进一步的分析近年来城乡居民收入差距的受影响因素与机制,本文通过阅读整理大量文献进行汇总,分析季度性的城乡收入差距的发展趋势。在微观层面选取中国家庭追踪调查数据库中2016年与2018年的数据进行变量筛选与聚类分析。选取出数字金融经济、互联网基础建设、教育水平、产业结构、城镇化水平等作为主要解释变量及控制变量进行实证研究。通过比较采用K均值法进行聚类分析,按照省份进行分类,为后文的区域异质性分析做铺垫。在宏观层面选取31个省份2012-2020年的面板数据,建立双向固定效应模型进行分析,通过基准回归、内生性估计、稳健性检验、异质性分析、中介效应分析等进一步探究当下主要因素对城乡居民收入差距的影响机制。 实证研究发现:数字金融经济的发展与互联网基础设施的完善能够在一定程度上缩小城乡居民收入的差距;其中的数字金融经济对城乡收入差距的缩小呈现一种先缩小再扩大的作用,符合城乡居民收入差距中的“U型”曲线关系的理论,但需要注意其造成的就业极化问题。在区域异质性的分析上,东部地区的经济发展较好的省份数字金融经济与互联网基础设施建设已经发展到一定水平,对缩小城乡居民收入差距的影响较小;中部地区和东部其他省份更加符合数字金融经济与城乡收入差距之间的“U型”曲线;西部地区受影响较小,产业结构、城镇化发展是需要注意的方向。最后根据结论,本文从数字金融的发展、互联网发展等多个角度对不同地区的缩小城乡居民收入差距提出针对性的政策建议,进一步的促进城乡融合发展以及经济的高质量稳定发展。 |
外文摘要: |
With the development of the reform and opening up, China's attention to economic development is gradually shifting from speed to quality, people's income level has gradually increased, and material and spiritual life is prosperous. In 2021, China's per capita GDP has reached $12,500, surpassing the world's per capita GDP level, and the urbanization rate has reached 64.72%. However, because the unbalanced distribution of financial resources caused by the urban and rural dual structure, in China, the urban-rural areas income gap of still exists. In recent years, many scholars have conducted researches in various fields, including financial expenditure, Internet digital economy, inclusive finance, etc., and reached the same opinions on the mechanism affecting the urban-rural income gap in many fields. However, among the factors, there are also some different opinions on the influence of digital economy. Therefore, in order to further analyze the latest changes of the influencing on the income gap between urban and rural areas in the last decade, this paper chooses to summarize the influencing factors on the income gap by reading, analyzing the literatures that can be found from different channels. Then, analysis of development trend of the quarterly urban-rural income gap, and the data of 2016 and 2018 in the China Family Panel Studies database were selected for variable choosing and cluster analysis. After a more detailed and accurate division of multiple influencing factors, variables such as the development of digital financial economy, for conducting empirical research, this paper selected the development of Internet infrastructure, the level of education development, industrial structure and urbanization rate as the main explanatory variables and control variables. At the same time, cluster analysis is carried out, k-means method is adopted through method comparison, and classification is carried out according to provinces, paving the way for the regional heterogeneity analysis in the following section. Then, based on the reference and analysis of model methods in the literature, this paper selects the panel data of 31 provinces from 2012 to 2020, establishes a two-way fixed effect model for analysis, and further explores the major factors that influence the income gap between urban and rural by using some kinds of methods, such as benchmark regression, endogeneity estimation, robustness test, heterogeneity analysis, and mediation effect analysis. The research found that the development and progress of digital financial economy can narrow the urban-rural income gap, and the improvement of Internet infrastructure construction has the same function. Specifically, the development of digital financial economy will narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas firstly, and then expand to a certain extent. This is consistent with the "U-shaped" curve of the income gap between urban and rural residents. So the polarization of employment is a very important question that should be paid attention. In terms of the analysis of regional heterogeneity, digital financial economy and Internet infrastructure construction have reached a certain level in the eastern provinces with better economic development, which has little influence on narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents. The central and other eastern provinces are more in line with the "U-shaped" curve between the digital financial economy and the urban-rural income gap; the western region is less affected, and the industrial structure and urbanization development should be paid attention to. Finally, in view of the conclusion obtained from the empirical study, this paper shows some useful suggestions from different regions, including the perspectives of digital financial economy development, Internet development to address the income gap between urban and rural to further promote the development of urban and rural integration. |
参考文献总数: | 52 |
馆藏号: | 硕025200/23052 |
开放日期: | 2024-06-14 |