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中文题名:

 地震灾害经济损失和人员伤亡预测    

姓名:

 雷吉安    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 中文    

学科代码:

 071201    

学科专业:

 统计学    

学生类型:

 学士    

学位:

 理学学士    

学位年度:

 2021    

学校:

 北京师范大学    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 统计学院 ; 国民核算研究院    

第一导师姓名:

 童行伟    

第一导师单位:

 北京师范大学统计学院    

提交日期:

 2021-06-27    

答辩日期:

 2021-05-11    

外文题名:

 The prediction of economical loss and casualties caused by earthquake disaster    

中文关键词:

 震灾预测 ; 多元线性回归 ; 逐步回归 ; 指数模型 ; 聚类分析    

外文关键词:

 Earthquake disaster prediction ; Multilinear regression ; Stepwise regression ; Clustering analysis    

中文摘要:

中国是一个受震灾影响严重的国家,中国的地震具有高频、高强度、浅源三大特点。其地理特征又决定了东西部所受震灾存在差异,东部频率相对低,强度相对大,西部恰恰相反。再加上东西部经济人口也存在显著差异,地震灾害带来的后果复杂多变,在政策的制定上需要因地制宜。本文主要处理两个方面的问题。一方面建立多元线性回归模型,旨在利用地震初期能够立刻获取或者估算到的数据,估计出经济损失,为政府应对震灾提供参考。另一方面利用聚类分析,根据多个变量将地震进行分类,分别分析每个类型的地震,为政府制定不同类型应急计划提供参考。

外文摘要:

China is a country which is seriously affected by the earthquake. China's earthquake has three prominent characteristics which are high frequency, high intensity and small depth of the earthquakes. Its geographical characteristics also determine the difference of the earthquake between the east and west. In the east, frequency is relatively low, and the intensity is relatively large, while the west is the opposite. Coupled with the significant differences in the economic population of the East and the West, the consequences of earthquake disasters are complex and changeable, and the formulation of policies needs to be tailored to local conditions.

This paper mainly deals with two aspects. On the one hand, a multilinear regression model is established, which aims to estimate the economic loss and provide reference for the government to deal with the earthquake by using the data that can be obtained or estimated immediately at the beginning of the earthquake. On the other hand, clustering analysis is used to classify earthquakes according to multiple variables, analyzing each type of earthquake separately, and providing reference for the government to formulate different types of emergency plans.

参考文献总数:

 7    

作者简介:

 北京师范大学统计学本科    

插图总数:

 11    

插表总数:

 6    

馆藏号:

 本071201/21028    

开放日期:

 2022-06-27    

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