改革开放以来，我国城镇化的快速发展，重城轻乡的发展政策促使城乡差距拉大，村庄空心化、农村主体老弱化、乡村环境污损化等问题日益明显。新时期城乡一体化、精准扶贫、乡村振兴逐渐成为促进乡村发展的重大战略，而乡村转型发展则是实现农民脱贫致富、乡村振兴和城乡融合的重要途径，对改善乡村人口、土地、产业等要素配置水平具有重要的现实意义。本文以京津冀地区147个县（区）为例，采取定性与定量相结合的技术方法，系统分析了1990年、2000年、2010年和2015年4个阶段京津冀地区县域乡村发展度与转型度，及其耦合协调性；利用多元回归模型和地理探测器、欧氏距离与引力模型构建了乡村转型发展路径模型，测度了时间与空间驱动因素对乡村转型发展作用的内力与外力，并划定了内生发展、外部城市带动和内外结合等3种县域乡村转型发展模式；通过对静海区、阜平县和密云区3个典型县域进行村域尺度的乡村转型发展特征及模式调查分析，结合京津冀地区的功能区定位，预测模拟了京津冀地区2020年和2030年人口、土地和产业等要素的空间分布；基于上述研究结果分别对核心引领区、重点拓展区和稳定涵养区搭建了乡村转型发展优化模式框架图，并为乡村转型发展模式的稳定、可持续发展，提出科学的保障机制。研究结论如下： （1）京津冀地区乡村系统的生产、生活、生态和综合发展水平，存在明显的南北差异，1990年以低等、较低等水平的发展度和转型度为主，2015年以中、高等水平发展度和中等水平转型度为主，且2015年仍有92.5%的县域处于颉颃耦合阶段。京津冀地区1990年-2015年的乡村转型发展过程中仍然存在水平较低，发展不均衡、区域差异大，不协调、可持续性差，缺乏保障机制，时效性低等问题，乡村转型发展模式仍需进一步优化。 （2）人均财政收入（x2）、人均固定资产投入（x3）、人口密度（x6）、城镇化率（x7）等时间主导因子和耕地密度（y1）、高程指数（y4）、到城市中心距离（y5）、到主要公路距离（y6）等空间主导因子共同驱动了县域乡村转型发展；依据乡村转型发展路径测度模型，通过比较县域转型发展路径中内力与外力大小确定了内生发展模式、城市带动发展模式和内外结合发展模式，比重分别为13.6%、70.1%和16.3%。 （3）京津冀地区的阜平县、静海区、密云区等三个典型县（区）的发展特征、城镇化作用机理、村域转型发展模式及农民发展意愿与需求差异明显。依据京津冀地区的县域乡村发展度、转型度和耦合度，划分了核心引领区、重点拓展区和稳定涵养区，其比重分别为12.2%、 43.6%和 44.2%。2020年和2030年京津冀地区人口、土地和产业要素预测模拟结果显示：人口主要向重点拓展区转移，土地利用形态变化主要是重点拓展区的生产型转换为生活型，重点拓展区以发展第二产业为主，核心引领区和稳定涵养区以发展第三产业为主。 （4）针对京津地区核心引领区、重点拓展区和稳定涵养区的县域乡村转型发展功能定位，进一步构建了科技农业乡村发展模式、产业示范园区乡村发展模式、卫星城镇（中心社区）乡村发展模式、现代规模化农业乡村发展模式、企业规模化乡村发展模式、生态休闲旅游乡村发展模式、新型特色产业乡村发展模式等7种优化模式；提出了乡村发展规划、产业发展资金和村集体储备资金、农村产业协会组织和土地市场管理机构为主的县域乡村转型发展模式保障体系，为加强乡村人口、土地与产业管理提高保障。 本文基于乡村转型发展理论框架，提出了县域乡村转型发展路径测度模型，实现了区域—县域—村域的乡村发展空间尺度转换，预测模拟了县域乡村核心要素未来变化与空间分布，进而建立了具有可推广性的乡村转型发展模式框架，研究形成了一套较为完整的乡村转型发展研究范式，为推进乡村转型发展模式提炼与理论完善提供指导，为新时代乡村振兴与城乡融合发展决策提供参考。

Since the reform and opening up, urbanization has developed rapidly, and the policy of “heavy towns and light rural” caused urban-rural gap widening, rural subjective weakening and rural environmental pollution. In the new period, urban-rural integration, precision poverty alleviation, and rural regeneration have gradually become important strategies for rural development. Rural transformation development is an important way for eradication of poverty, rural revitalization and urban-rural integration and of great significance to improve rural population, land and industry. This paper took 147 counties (districts) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as study area to analyze rural development degree, transformation degree and coupling degree from 1990, 2000, 2010 to 2015. The rural transformation path model was constructed to measure the internal and external forces of urbanization factors influencing rural transforming development by using multiple regression models, geo-detectors, Euclidean distance and gravitational models, and the county rural transformation development models were divided into endogenous development model, external city driving model, and internal and external integration model. Based on the rural transformation development characteristics and model analysis in Chiping County, Jinghai District and Miyun District, this paper predicted spatial distribution of population, land and industry in 2020 and 2030 combined with the functional area positioning in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. According to research results, the framework of the rural transformation development optimization model was proposed for the core guiding area, the key development area, and the stability conservation area respectively. In order to ensure the rural transformation stable and sustainable development, protection mechanisms were proposed. The findings are as follows: (1) The production, living, ecological and comprehensive development levels of rural system had significant differences between the North and the South in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The transformation degree and development degree were mainly at the low and lower levels in 1990, and development degree was mainly high level transformation degree was at medium-level in 2015; 92.5% of the counties were still in the phase of coupling in 2015. The process of rural transformation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 1990 to 2015 still was low levels, unbalanced development, large regional differences, uncoordinated, poor sustainability, lack of a guarantee mechanism, and low timeliness. Thus, the rural transformation development models still need further optimization. (2) This paper detected per capita fiscal income (x2), per capita fixed asset investment (x3), population density (x6), and urbanization rate (x7) as time-leading factors, and arable land density (y1), elevation index (y4), distance to urban centers (y5), distance to main road (y6) as space-dominating factors to drive county-rural transformation development. Based on the rural transformation path measurement model, the study divided into endogenous development model, external city driving model, and internal and external integration model by comparing the internal and external forces. Their proportions were 13.6%, 70.1%, and 16.3%. (3) The development characteristics, urbanization mechanism, rural transformation development model, and farmers' willingness and demand for industrial in Fuping County, Jinghai District, and Miyun District were different degree According to rural transformation and development degree in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the core leading areas, key development areas and stable conservation areas had been divided, and their proportions were 12.2%, 43.6% and 44.2%. The predictions of population, land and industry in 2020 and 2030 showed that population had shifted mainly to key development areas, and land-use patterns have changed from production-type to life-type in key development areas, and the key development areas were mainly second industries, core leading areas and stable conservation areas were tertiary industries. (4) Finally, this paper built 7 optimized model frameworks including science-technology agriculture model, industrial demonstration park model, satellite towns (central communities) model, large-scale and modern agricultural development model, large-scale enterprises model, ecological leisure tourism model, new characteristic industries model, according to the functional orientation of rural transformation development in the core guiding zone, key development zone, and stable conservation zone in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,. Then, the study also proposed the guarantee systems for the county-rural transformation development model which consisted of the rural development planning, industrial development funds, village collective reserve funds, rural industry association organizations, and land market management institutions. Based on the theoretical framework of rural transformation development, this paper proposed a rural transformation development path measurement model, realized the spatial transformation in the region-county-village scale, and built a framework diagram of rural transitional development model by predicting changes and spatial distribution of rural core elements in the county by functional regional positioning. Thus, this paper formed a complete research process of rural transformation development, which provided guarantee for refining model and supplementing theory of rural development.