改革开放以来，我国城市化进程不断加快，工业强度和人口密度不断加大，由此产生的资源过度使用，生态环境恶化成为城市可持续发展的制约条件。城市生态规划作为一种城市生态调控和管理的手段，是实现资源环境永续利用，保障城市可持续发展的有效途径。在各种城市生态规划方法中，生态足迹方法在生态可持续发展评价分析等领域得到了广泛应用，但目前该方法主要应用于静态核算层面，使得其在可持续发展远景规划和政策分析方面应用不足。基于此，本文提出一种生态足迹动态分析方法,以此作为城市可持续发展政策调控的分析工具，设计实现城市可持续发展的政策组合。该方法关键是利用生态足迹作为可持续发展能力的测度指标，同时使用系统动力学方法建立系统驱动要素的结构组成，动态特征和作用机制。模型构建主要完成以下四部分：1）运用系统动力学模拟城市社会经济系统驱动要素的动态过程和作用关系，包括经济发展过程，人口增长和迁移过程及人口-经济要素的相互作用过程；2）通过构造子模块来建立驱动要素同生物资源供需的响应关系，包括能源需求系统模块，生物资源消费模块，生物生产性土地面积变化模块和生物生产能力模块；3）采用综合法进行生态足迹核算，包括生态足迹账户及各成分；4）以政策可行性和可持续发展目标为标准，设计政策情景对城市可持续发展趋势进行调控优化。在实证方面，本文以重庆市万州区为案例,应用建立的生态足迹动态分析模型来指导其城市生态规划，分析实现其生态可持续发展的政策调控措施。模拟结果显示，万州常规发展模式下城市化和工业化水平不断加速，规划期内生态足迹将从1997年的1.04公顷/人迅速增加至2020年的2.40公顷/人，年均增长0.06公顷/人，而同时期的生态承载力仅从0.62公顷/人增加至0.79公顷/人，年均增长仅为0.007公顷/人。生态资源的需求规模和增长趋势都远远大于生态资源供给能力，从远期来看该地区将面临自然资本存量的过度消耗，形成生态赤字的风险，并对地区生态可持续发展能力产生不利影响。为降低在未进行城市生态调控下城市发展可能带来的生态赤字风险，本文首先识别了生态调控的主要影响因素，包括人口规模，消费水平，生态足迹强度，土地利用类型及生物生产能力等，并通过组合各种影响因素，设计四种生态调控情景，情景一利用生态足迹为调控指标，实现2020年生态赤字为零；情景二设定调控目标为2020年生态赤字保持2005年水平；情景三以扣除能源足迹成分的生态足迹作为调控指标，实现2020年生态赤字为零；情景四同样以扣除能源足迹成分的生态足迹作为调控指标，但调控目标设定为2020年生态赤字保持2005年水平。四种情景都利用系统动力学-生态足迹耦合模型建立的动态响应关系，对系统驱动要素的动态变化过程进行不同程度的干预，从而实现生态赤字减少，可持续发展能力提升的规划目标。结果表明，情景一对降低生态赤字的效果最为显著，体现了强可持续发展性，因此建议案例城市控制人口出生和迁移规模，调整生产要素投入强度，调整地区经济增长速度，改变工业及交通高能耗发展模式，提高其生产流通环节的能耗效率，控制个人支出及消费水平，同时增加耕地面积供给，减少材木砍伐和过度放牧，实行森林草原生态系统保育。

Urbanization is a process necessarily accompanying the concentration of industrial infrastructure into cities and mass immigration from rural to urban areas. Since the implementation of Opening and Reform Policy, China’s urbanization process has showed an accelerating trend, the pressure imposed by urban development and population increase become increasingly large. Due to a lack of appropriated planning and management, a majority of China’s cities are confronting the substantial challenges of ecological degradation and economic-environmental impasse which form the bottleneck for their future sustainable development. As a key task in urban sustainable development, urban ecological planning focus on the central point of cities and its interactions with surrounding regions, explore the effective instruments for ecological balance and resource sustainable use, and hence realize the goal of environmental protection and economic development.Ecological Footprint (EF) was developed to allow a conservative measurement of human impacts by measuring the biologically productive land and sea areas which are required to maintain the biotic resource consumptions and compensate carbon emissions for a given population, and hence provide a powerful framework to measure sustainability performance. Albeit the increasing accepted popularity in making the sustainability measurement easy to operationalize, the nature of static snapshot of original EF has no adaptability to sustainability analysis from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective, which leads to narrow policy relevance in proposing concrete instruments for future sustainability improvement. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a solid platform to formulate integrated policy portfolio for urban sustainability improvement. EF is used as the vivid indicator of sustainability performance measurement, while SD is employed to make EF structurally systematic and temporally dynamic. Based on an initial simulation of dynamics and interactions of system drivers using SD modeling, a collection of econometric methods are then adopted to relate driving forces to relevant personal consumption behaviors, EF accounting is eventually performed using the compound-based method. According to the design criteria in policy feasibility and sustainability target, four integrated policy scenarios are devised to explore possible sustainability prospects and formulate pertinent policy interventions which would lead to that sustainability visions. The modeling procedure is applied to our case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy implications for urban sustainability can hopefully be elicited using this integrated framework in the near future.In order to reconcile the competing relationship between economic growth and environmental preservation occurring in China’s western cities during the course of urban development, the integrated EF-SD framework is utilized in practical analysis to explore local sustainability prospects and policy implications. In our case study area, trigged by the accelerating process of urbanization and industrialization, Wanzhou is anticipated to undergo a sharp EF increase from 1.04 to 2.40 ha/cap during the period 1997-2020, while EC changes moderately from 0.62 to 0.79 ha/cap. With the accumulation of ecological deficit, the business-as-usual scenario implies a high risk of natural capital stock overshoot in the long run, four integrated policy scenarios are thereby devised to elicit appropriate combinations of policy interventions towards sustainability vision.This study demonstrates the methodological effectiveness of system dynamics modeling to expand EF snapshot into dynamic forecast, and the applicability of this integrated approach for providing a solid basis for supporting policy making towards sustainability in the near future.