台风灾害的风险评估世界范围内的热点课题。目前，国内外使用指标体系构建法，结合灾害风险科学评估区域台风灾害风险已经成为灾害风险评估的常用方法；评估指标体系中的各类指标彼此独立计算，对于指标权重的赋值具有较强的人为主观因素。本研究采用基于热力学和能量学等的能值分析法构建了中国海岸带区域台风灾害风险评估指标体系，并对其各个指标及社会经济数据进行空间化，开展了以市域栅格为基本单元的中国海岸带区域台风灾害风险评估研究，旨在为国家及地方政府制定防灾减灾政策制定提供理论依据与技术支撑。

本研究主要开展的工作及实验结果如下：

（1）提出了以能值理论和方法为基础的中国海岸带台风灾害综合风险评估指标体系：本研究以能值分析理论和灾害风险科学以及灾害系统理论为理论为主要方法，分别构建了总驱动能值、敏感性指数、有效台风强度能值、恢复力能值、台风灾害风险综合指数等指标用来综合分析台风灾害对于自然、人类经济社会系统的风险。

（2）应用以能值方法为基础的评估框架对中国海岸带台风灾害综合风险进行了评估，评估结果显示：

1.江苏省以南的地区的地级市台风总驱动能值普遍较高，江苏省以北的地区台风总驱动能值普遍较低。

2.上海以南的地区各地级市敏感性指数由沿海向内陆地区递减，上海以北的地区平均敏感性指数高于南方各省。

3.上海市以南地区有效台风强度能值积累量较高，山东省以北地区有效台风强度能值积累量较低。

4.全国沿海各地级市恢复力能值分布呈现中部高、南部和北部低的分布特征，恢复力能值积累量较高的区域集中在京津冀地区、上海地区及周边江苏浙江大部地区、山东半岛地区、粤港澳地区以及长江三角洲地区。

5.中国台风灾害高风险区整体集中于海岸带的东南沿海地级市，以江苏省中部为界，江苏省以南沿海区域台风灾害风险综合指数较高，江苏省以北区域台风灾害风险综合指数较低。台风灾害风险综合指数分布有从沿海向内陆递减的趋势。

Risk assessment of typhoons has become a hot topic worldwide. At present, it is common practice to build an indicator system to assess the risk of typhoon disasters. Various indicators in the assessment indicator system are calculated independently of each other, and there are some subjective factors in the assignment of indicator weights. This study used emergy analysis method and index system method to construct the typhoon disaster risk assessment index system in China's coastal zone. We used the city grid as the basic unit to spatialize the various indicators and socio-economic data to assess the typhoon risks. The typhoon disaster risk assessment research is aimed to put forward a specific theoretical basis for national and local governments to formulate disaster prevention and reduction policies. The main work and experimental results of this study are as follows:

(1) We put forward the comprehensive risk assessment index system of typhoon disaster in China's coastal zone based on emergy method: This study took emergy analysis theory and disaster risk science and disaster system theory as the main methods. The indicators such as total driving emergy, sensitivity index, typhoon strength effectiveness, resilience emergy, and typhoon disaster risk comprehensive index are used to comprehensively analyze the risks of typhoon disasters to natural and human economic and social systems.

(2) Using the evaluation framework based on the emergy method to evaluate the comprehensive risk of typhoon disasters in the coastal zone of China, the evaluation results show that: 1. The total driving emergy of typhoons in prefecture-level cities south of Jiangsu Province is generally high. The total driving energy value of typhoons in the north of Jiangsu Province is generally low. 2. The sensitivity index of each city in the area south of Shanghai decreases from the coast to the inland area. The average sensitivity index of the area north of Shanghai is higher than that of the southern provinces. 3.The typhoon strength effectiveness emergy is higher in the area south of Shanghai, while the typhoon strength effectiveness emergy is lower in the area north of Shandong Province. 4. The distribution of resilience emergy of coastal cities across the country shows a distribution characteristic of high in the central, low in the southern and northern. The regions with higher accumulation of resilience are concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Shanghai region and most of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong Peninsula, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and the Yangtze River Delta. 5. The high-risk areas for typhoon disasters in China are in prefecture-level cities in the southeast coast of the coastal zone. The typhoon disaster risk comprehensive index is higher in the coastal areas south of Jiangsu Province and lower in the north areas. The overall risk of typhoon tends to decrease from the coast to the inland.