中文题名: | 近58年遂川地区气温和降水量多时间尺度的分析 |
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保密级别: | 公开 |
论文语种: | chi |
学科代码: | 070201 |
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学生类型: | 学士 |
学位: | 理学学士 |
学位年度: | 2011 |
学校: | 北京师范大学 |
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第一导师姓名: | |
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提交日期: | 2011-06-30 |
答辩日期: | 2011-06-01 |
外文题名: | Multi-scale analysis of temperature and precipitation at Suichuan in the past 58 years |
中文关键词: | 遂川 ; 气温 ; 降水量 ; Mann-Kendall 检验 ; Morlet 小波分析 |
外文关键词: | Suichuan ; temperature ; precipitation ; Mann-kendall test ; Morlet wavelet analysis |
中文摘要: |
全球气候和中国气候正在经历一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,并且这种变化具有一定的区域差异。在此大背景下,通过采用累积滤波器、M-K 突变检验和 Morlet 小波变换等方法对近 58 年来遂川地区的气温和降水量进行不同时间尺度的特征分析。结果表明:遂川地区全年气温温和;相较气温,年内降水量分配非均匀性较强。其中,1-7 月气温呈上升趋势,在7月形成一个峰值,随后气温呈下降趋势;降水量除在 7 月形成一个峰谷,其年内变化趋势与气温的大致相同 降水集中度和降水集中期在近58 年出现极端异常年,这与厄尔尼诺现象的出现有关;进入 21 世纪,年内降水量分配的非均匀性有所增强,降水集中期有所提前。近 58 年来遂川的气温和降水量均呈非显著上升趋势,与全球气温的上升趋势相比,遂川气候变暖形式还不足人们所讨论的那么激烈。其中,1964年左右气温由显著上升突变为非显著下降,与累 积均值的变化趋势相一致;1990 年左右出现了明显的降水量的上升突变点,进入90年代降水量呈现 上升趋势,其中2002年的降水量达到峰值近58年来气温和降水量在时域 上存在不尽相同的年际和年代际尺度的周期变化特征,气温主要存在 5a-7a、10a-14a 和准 16a 尺度的周期变化规律,降水量主要存在4a-8a 和10a-16a 尺度的周期变化规律,各种时间尺度的强弱等分布不完全均匀,其中气温的14a尺度和降水量的 16a尺度贯穿整个时域。 |
外文摘要: |
Both global climate and climate in China were undergoing significant change with warming as the main feature, but with regional variation. Different time-scale characteristics of temperature and precipitation in from 1951 to 2008 were analyzed using the cumulative filter, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, and the Morlet wavelet. Results showed that: Climate in Suichuan is mild all year round. Distribution of the precipitation is imegular compared with that of the temperature. The trends of temperature and precipitation are similar except for the high temperature and less precipitation in July. Degree and periodicity of the precipitation concentration showed extreme abnormality in some years mainly due to the El Nino. Since the 21st century, the distribution of the precipitation has become more irregular and the periodicity of the precipitation concentration has been advanced. Compared with the global climate change, the increasing trends of temperature and precipitation in Suichuan are not as remarkable as that has been discussed. It showed regional variation in response to the global warming. There was an abrupt change of temperature in 1964. The temperature changed from an upward trend to a downward trend, which coincided with the outcome of the cumulative filter. An abrupt of precipitation occurred around 1990. The precipitation started to increase again after that abrupt decrease, particularly in 2002, when the precipitation was the most. The Morlet wavelet is applied to study the multiple time-scale change of the annual temperature and precipitation in Suichuan based on the data from 1951 to 2008. For the temperature, the long-term time-series change cycle is about 16 years, with the strong energy. The other long-term time-series change cycle is from 10 to 14 years. The short-term time-series change cycle is from 5 to 7 years; For the precipitation, the time-series change cycles are from 4 to 8 years and 10 to 16 years. Distribution at different time-series shows incompletely uniform characteristics. |
参考文献总数: | 40 |
馆藏号: | 本070201/11109 |
开放日期: | 2024-03-14 |