“土地利用变化-生态系统服务-人类福祉”研究是“Future earth”未来地球的最重要科学问题之一。生态系统过程、功能与人类福祉之间的关系复杂且多样，而土地利用是人类社会与自然交叉最密切的环节，土地利用的变化势必会引起生态系统服务与人类福祉的改变。生态系统服务变化与人类福祉的定量化评估是生态系统服务供需研究的重要内容，同时对于生态系统服务需求的评估，目前仍缺乏过程上的探索以及客观意义上的表达。运用元素循环流动过程反映生态系统服务的供给、转移过程，可以在微观上揭示“土地利用变化-生态系统服务-人类福祉”的关系机理，也可以在宏观上为区域可持续发展提供机制与路径参考。本文以新疆玛纳斯河流域为研究区，分别运用1990、1995、2000、2005、2010和2015年的遥感数据、统计年鉴和部分实测数据，以氮元素为载体建立了“土地利用变化-生态系统服务-人类福祉”的评估框架，并定量化评估了三者关系；同时也分析了玛纳斯河流域氮元素变化而引起的中游水库生态系统服务价值的变化。结果表明如下： （1）不同土地利用状态下，产生的Nr的种类和含量各不相同。其中耕地产生的NH3和水体TN最多；工业用地产生的NOX最多；N2O则在每种土地利用类型下都有涉及。 （2）研究区在这近20多年内，供给服务与文化服务不断提高，调节服务和支持服务不断下降，维持高质量生活所需物质不断提高，安全福祉和健康福祉不断下降。 （3）玛纳斯河流域调节服务与支持服务呈极显著正相关，与文化服务呈显著负相关。调节服务、支持服务与维持高质量生活所需物质呈显著负相关，与安全呈显著正相关，与健康呈极显著正相关；文化服务与健康呈显著负相关；而供给服务与其他服务与福祉均未表现出显著相关。 （4）从2000年和2015年的结果对比分析得出，不论是从总量还是单位面积量上看，大泉沟水库生态系统服务需求的价值都比蘑菇湖水库的小；而从年际间变化中得出，重点治理的大泉沟水库生态系统服务需求的价值降低，而污染仍严重的蘑菇湖水库需求的价值增加，并且需求价值增幅大于降幅，治理污染仍存在很多难度。 在玛纳斯河流域生态系统中要采取各种措施减少NOX和NH3的排放，促进流域社会生态经济系统的可持续发展。

The research of “Land use change – ecosystem services – human well-being” is one of the most important scientific issues for Future Earth. The relationship among ecosystem processes, functions and human well-being is complex and diverse, and land use is the closest link between human society and nature. Changes in land use are bound to cause changes in ecosystem services and human well-being. The quantitative assessment of ecosystem services and human well-being is an important part of ecosystem service supply and demand research. At the same time, there is still a lack of process exploration and objective expression for the assessment of ecosystem service demands. Using the elemental circulation flow process to reflect the supply and transfer process of ecosystem services, we can reveal the relationship mechanism of “land use change-ecosystem service-human welfare” on the micro level, and it can also provide a mechanism and path reference for regional sustainable development at a macro level. This paper takes the Manas River Basin of Xinjiang as the research area, and uses the remote sensing data, statistical yearbook and some measured data in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 respectively to establish “land use change-ecosystem services-human well-being” with nitrogen as the carrier. The evaluation framework of system services-human well-being and quantitative assessment of the relationship between the three; also analyzed the changes in the ecosystem service value of the middle reaches of the reservoir caused by changes in nitrogen in the Manas River Basin. The results are as follows: (1) Under different land use conditions, the types and contents of Nr produced are different. Among them, the NH3 and the TN produced by the cultivated land are the most; the industrial land produces the most NOX; the N2O is involved in each land use type. (2) In the past 20 years, the supply ecosystem services and cultural ecosystem services of the research area have been continuously improved, the regulation ecosystem services and support ecosystem services have been declining, the materials needed to maintain a high quality of life have been continuously improved, and the safety well-being and health well-being have been declining. (3) The Manas River Basin’s regulation ecosystem services and support ecosystem services were significantly and positively correlated, and were significantly negatively correlated with cultural services. Regulation ecosystem services, support ecosystem services are significantly negatively correlated with the materials needed to maintain a high quality of life, positively correlated with safety, and significantly positively correlated with health; cultural services are significantly negatively correlated with health; and supply ecosystem services and other ecosystem services and well-being None of them showed significant correlation. (4) From the comparative analysis of the results of 2000 and 2015, it is concluded that the value of the ecosystem service demand of the Daquangou Reservoir is smaller than that of the Moguhu Reservoir, both in terms of total volume and unit area; According to the change, the value of the demand for ecosystem services in the Daquangou Reservoir, which is mainly treated, is reduced, while the value of the demand for the Moguhu Reservoir, which is still seriously polluted, and the increase in demand value is greater than the decline. There are still many difficulties in controlling pollution. In the Manas River Basin ecosystem, various measures should be taken to reduce NOX and NH3 emissions and promote the sustainable development of the basin's social ecological economic system.