“一带一路”地区幅员辽阔，地质地貌、气候环境复杂，广袤多样的环境形成了有利的孕灾环境，自然灾害种类多样、爆发频繁、成灾严重，是全球灾害发生的高频区和损失重灾区。重大自然灾害的发生增加了国家间重大项目工程建设隐患，严重影响“一带一路”地区各个国家之间的畅连互通以及合作共赢，不利于倡导和推进人类命运共同体建设。因此，摸清“一带一路”地区自然灾害基本特征、识别未来灾害的“热点”地区，是“一带一路”合作不断深化和推进的基础保障。

本文以我国及与我国签署“一带一路”协议的108个国家为研究区，对研究区的自然灾害从时间和空间两个角度进行特征分析。基于机器学习算法对洪水、干旱、滑坡和野火四种自然灾害敏感性进行量化分析。多灾种敏感性分析创新性的采用提出的“概率综合方法”和“多灾害点方法”。从地理分区和经济分区两个角度对多灾种敏感性进行量化分析。同时，利用未来气候模式数据CMIP5，识别未来气候模式下“一带一路”地区高敏感性区域，评估未来气候模式下“一带一路”地区承灾体暴露情况。研究结果表明：

（1）1978-2017年灾害发生频次逐渐增加，洪水、干旱、地震三种灾害发生频次最多，分别占灾害总量的48%、23%和13%。各大洲由于区位、气候条件、地质条件不同所遭受主要灾害也不同，亚洲、非洲和欧洲洪水灾害占比最多，分别占该大洲灾害总量的48%、23%和13%。从损失角度来看，地震、洪水和干旱是灾害损失最为严重。

（2）历史气候模式下单灾种敏感性可知，喜马拉雅山脉和东南亚地区易遭受洪水灾害的影响；非洲中部和印度半岛易遭受干旱灾害的影响；滑坡灾害常伴随地震而生，“一带一路”地区的喜马拉雅-环太平洋地震带易遭受滑坡灾害的影响；野火灾害呈点发式特点，非洲、南亚东南亚是野火的高发区。未来气候模式下单灾种敏感性与历史气候模式下格局大致一样。

（3）多灾种综合方法不同，其结果所关注的重点灾害和重点地区也不同。整体来说，地理视角上东南亚、南亚、南非，经济视角上中巴、中国-中亚-西亚、中蒙 俄经济走廊是灾害需要重点关注的区域。洪水+滑坡+干旱+野火受四种灾害、洪水+滑坡+干旱三种灾害、洪水+滑坡高敏感性、洪水+干旱高敏感性等多灾种综合的影响是未来需要重点关注的灾害。

（4）承灾体的暴露性来看，多灾害点方法中，从历史灾害情景到未来灾害情景，人口暴露量总计增加了3.2×10⁹人，同比增长82.8%；GDP暴露量总计增加了42.50×10⁹元，同比增长867%，洪水+干旱两种灾害综合的影响是未来需要重点关注的灾害，洪水+干旱两种灾害所在的区域是暴露性高的区域是需要重点关注的区域；概率综合方法中，从历史灾害情景到未来灾害情景，人口暴露量总计增加为3.20×10⁹人，同比增长82.8%；GDP暴露量总计增加为42.48×10⁹元，同比增长887%；洪水+滑坡+干旱三种灾害综合影响是未来需要重点关注的灾害，同时洪水+滑坡+干旱三种灾害综合高敏感性所在的区域是未来需要重点关注的区域。

 "The Belt and Road " area is a vast area with complex geological, geomorphological and climatic environment. The vast and diverse environment has formed a favorable disaster transport environment, and the natural disasters are diversified, frequent and serious. It is the high frequency area of global disaster and the worst-hit area of loss. The occurrence of major natural disasters has increased the hidden dangers of major projects among countries, seriously affected the connectivity and win-win cooperation among the Belt and Road countries, and was not conducive to advocating and advancing the building of a community with a shared future for mankind. Therefore, a clear understanding of the basic characteristics of natural disasters, the basic characteristics of disasters and the "hot spots" of future disasters in the "the Belt and Road" region is the basic guarantee for the continuous deepening and advancement of "the Belt and Road" cooperation.

In this paper, 109 countries that have signed "the Belt and Road" agreement with China are taken as the study area, and the characteristics of natural disasters are temporal and spatial analysis. The sensitivity of four natural disasters, flood, drought, landslide and wildfire, was quantitatively analyzed based on machine learning algorithm. The "probability synthesis method" and "multi-disaster synthesis method" proposed by ourselves are innovatively adopted in the sensitivity analysis of multi-disaster. The sensitivity of multiple disasters was analyzed quantitatively from the perspectives of geographical and economic zones. At the same time, CMIP5 data of the future climate model was used to identify the highly sensitive areas in "the Belt and Road" region under the future climate model and evaluate the exposure of the disaster in "the Belt and Road" region under the future climate model.

(1) The frequency of disasters increased gradually from 1978 to 2017, with flood, drought and earthquake accounting for 48%, 23% and 13% of the total disasters, respectively.Different continents suffer from different major disasters due to different location, climate and geological conditions. Flood disasters in Asia, Africa and Europe account for the most, accounting for 48%, 23% and 13% of the total disasters in the continent respectively.From the point of view of losses, earthquakes, floods and droughts are the most serious disasters.

(2) The sensitivity of historical climate models to single disasters indicates that the Himalayas and Southeast Asia are vulnerable to flood disasters. Central Africa and the Indian peninsula are vulnerable to drought; Landslide disasters are often accompanied by earthquakes. The Himalaya-circum-Pacific seismic zone in " the Belt and Road" area is easily affected by landslides. The wildfire disaster presents the characteristic of spot pattern, and Africa, South and Southeast Asia are the areas with high incidence of wildfire. The susceptibility of future climate models to single disasters is similar to that of historical climate models.

(3) Different methods of multi-disaster synthesis will result in different key disasters and regions.On the whole, from the geographical perspective, Southeast Asia, South Asia and South Africa, and from the economic perspective, China-Pakistan, China-Central Asia-West Asia and China-Bangladesh-Russia Economic Corridor are the areas that need to be focused on.The comprehensive impact of flood + landslide + drought + wildfire on four disasters, three disasters of flood + landslide + drought, high sensitivity of flood + landslide and high sensitivity of flood + drought are the disasters that need to be paid more attention in the future.

(4) In terms of the exposure of the disaster-bearing body, in the multi-disaster point method, from the historical disaster scenario to the future disaster scenario, the total population exposure increased by 3.2×10⁹ people, with a year-on-year increase of 82.8%;The total GDP exposure increased by 42.50×10⁹ yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 867%. The combined impact of flood and drought disasters is the disaster that needs to be paid more attention in the future, and the regions where flood and drought disasters are located are the areas with high exposure and need to be paid more attention.In the probabilistic synthesis method, from the historical disaster scenario to the future disaster scenario, the total population exposure increased to 3.20×10⁹people, with a year-on-year increase of 82.8%.GDP exposure increased to 42.48×10⁹ yuan in total, with a year-on-year increase of 887%;The comprehensive effects of flood, landslide and drought are the disasters that need to be paid more attention in the future, and the areas where the comprehensive sensitivity of flood, landslide and drought is high are the areas that need to be paid more attention in the future.