情绪预测是预测未来事件所引起的情绪反应的过程，对个体在日常生活中的决策和行为具有重要作用。情绪预测时往往会出现偏差，即情绪预测偏差，它是指对未来事件发生时情绪反应的预测和实际情绪体验之间的分离，是情绪预测能力的体现。情绪预测偏差普遍存在于自我情绪预测和人际情绪预测(对他人的情绪预测)中。亲子关系中父母对子女情绪预测偏差研究是情绪预测领域的重要组成部分，并且对父母的教养行为和亲子关系具有重要意义，然而目前并没有直接的研究对其进行探讨，这主要在于父母对子女情绪预测偏差的研究缺乏可靠的研究工具，也就无法进一步探讨其特点及影响因素。因此，本研究在以往情绪预测偏差研究的基础上，编制父母对子女情绪预测偏差的测量工具，并深入探讨父母情绪预测偏差的特征和影响因素。

本论文由四个研究组成，分别采用多批4-6年级学生样本及其父母作为研究对象。研究一编制父母对子女情绪预测偏差的测量工具，并对其进行测量学检验：子研究1采用问卷法和访谈法收集父母预测子女情绪的典型情境和典型情绪词，初步形成问卷；子研究2对问卷进行项目区分度检验、信效度检验和等价性检验；子研究3使用双因子模型(Bi-factor Model)探讨父母对子女情绪预测偏差在不同情境间的跨情境稳定性；子研究4使用潜状态-特质模型(Latent State-trait Model)探讨父母对子女情绪预测偏差在多次追踪测量中的跨时间稳定性。研究二探讨父母对子女情绪预测偏差的特征：子研究1从变量为中心的视角探讨父母对子女情绪预测偏差在人口学变量上的特点；子研究2从个体为中心的视角探讨父母对子女情绪预测偏差的亚类型及不同亚类型父母在教养方式与亲子关系上的差异特点。研究三使用实验法探讨典型情绪情境中父母对子女情绪预测偏差的认知影响因素：子研究1探讨认知忽视对父母情绪预测偏差的影响；子研究2探讨注意聚焦对父母情绪预测偏差的影响；子研究3探讨时间心理距离对父母情绪预测偏差的影响。研究四使用访谈法探讨父母对子女情绪预测偏差的认知影响因素和非认知影响因素，并尝试构建父母对子女情绪预测偏差的影响因素模型。

本论文的具体结论如下：

1.     父母对子女情绪预测偏差的测量：

(1)父母对子女情绪预测偏差的测量由《父母对子女的情绪预测问卷》和对应的《子女情绪体验问卷》构成(对应题目得分相减即为偏差)，问卷包括迎接考试、社会比较、与人表扬、违背期望和意外惊喜的五个典型情绪情境，问卷具有良好的信效度，具备跨性别等价性。

(2)父母对子女的情绪预测偏差在相同效价的情绪情境间表现出跨情境的稳定性，但在不同效价的情绪情境间不具有跨情境的稳定性，并且消极情绪预测偏差的出现更大程度取决于外在可变情境，而积极情绪预测偏差的出现更大程度取决于内在稳定性因素；此外，相对于消极情绪情境，父母对子女的情绪预测偏差在积极情绪情境中表现出更高的跨时间稳定性。

2.     父母对子女情绪预测偏差的特征：

(1)父母对子女的情绪预测偏差在父母性别上差异显著，父亲对子女的消极情绪预测偏差高于母亲；在子女性别上差异显著，父母对儿子的消极情绪预测偏差高于女儿；在父母教育期望上差异显著，教育期望水平高的父母对子女的情绪预测偏差更高；在父母陪伴时间上差异显著，陪伴时间长的父母对子女的情绪预测偏差更低；父母对子女的情绪预测偏差在是否独生、家庭年收入、父母受教育水平上差异不显著。

(2)父母对子女情绪预测偏差存在三种亚类型，分别是积极低估-消极低估(52%)、积极高估-消极低估(39.5%)和积极高估-消极高估(8.5%)；在消极教养方式方面，积极低估-消极低估组的消极教养方式显著低于积极高估-消极低估组，而三组的积极教养方式差异不显著；在亲子关系方面，积极高估-消极高估组亲子关系显著高于积极低估-消极低估组和积极高估-消极低估组。

3.     父母对子女情绪预测偏差的影响因素：

(1)认知忽视对父母的情绪预测偏差存在显著影响，在典型的消极情绪情境中，认知忽视组的父母对子女的情绪预测偏差显著高于非认知忽视组，在积极情绪情境中差异不显著，认知忽视提高了父母对子女的消极情绪预测偏差。

(2)注意聚焦对父母的消极情绪预测偏差存在显著影响，在典型的消极情绪情境中，注意聚焦组的父母对子女的情绪预测偏差显著低于控制组，注意聚焦降低了父母对子女的消极情绪预测偏差。

(3)时间心理距离对父母的情绪预测偏差存在显著影响，近时间心理距离条件下父母对子女的情绪预测偏差显著低于远时间心理距离。

Emotional forecasting is the process of predicting emotional responses caused by future events, occupying a vital position in an individual’s decision-making and behaviors in daily life. However, there are usually biases in emotional forecasting. An emotional forecasting bias refers to the separation between the predicted emotional response and its corresponding actual emotional experience when potential events occur. It is the embodiment of the ability of emotional forecasting. It generally exists in self-emotional and interpersonal emotional forecasting (emotional forecasting of others).

As the parent-child relationship is remarkably intimate and interpersonal, parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions have an essential share in the aspect of emotional forecasting, which is of great significance to parents’ parenting behaviors and interactions with their children. However, there are only a few studies regarding this topic. In addition, due to inadequate reliable research tools for parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions, it is impossible to further probe into the related attributes and influencing factors. Thus, underpinned by previous researches on emotional forecasting bias, this study compiles a scale of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions and discusses the related characteristics and influencing factors.

This paper covers four kinds of research, taking students of grades four to six as the sample, and their parents as the research objects. Research one devises a measurement tool for parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions and conducts a measurement test. Sub-research one involves questionnaires and interviews to obtain typical situations and familiar emotional words regarding parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions, and generates a preliminary questionnaire in the process. Sub-research two performs item discrimination, reliability, validity, and equivalence tests. Sub-research three applies the bi-factor model to probe the cross-situational stability of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions in various situations. Sub-research four adopts a latent state-trait model to examine into cross-time stability of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions in multiple tracking measurements.

Research two examines the characteristics of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions. Sub-research one explores the characteristics of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions based on demographic variables from a variable-centered aspect. Sub-research two probes into the subtypes of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions, as well as the differences in parenting styles and parent-child relationships amongst different subtypes of parents, from an individual-centered perspective.

Research three applies experimentation to explore the cognitive influencing factors of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions in typical emotional situations. Sub-research one examines the effects of cognitive neglect on parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions. Sub-research two probes into the consequences of attention focus on parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions. Sub-research three investigates the effects of time and psychological distance on parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions.

Research four adopts the interview method to study both cognitive and non-cognitive influencing factors of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions and attempts to construct an influencing factors model of such biases. The conclusions of this paper are as follows:

1. Measurement of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions

(1) The measurement tools of parents’ forecasting of their children’s emotions comprises the Questionnaire of Parents’ Forecasting Biases of Their Children’s Emotion and its corresponding Questionnaire of Children’s Emotional Experience. The differences of the scores in the questionnaires represent the biases. The questionnaires consist of five typical emotional situations: welcoming the examination, social comparisons, praising children to others, violating expectations, and surprises. They possess good reliability and validity, and transgender equivalence.

(2) Parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions indicate a cross-situational stability in emotional situations with the same valence, but do not have a cross-situational stability in emotional situations with varying valences. Compared to negative emotional situations, parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions presents a higher cross-time stability in positive emotional situations.

2. Characteristics of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions

(1) Parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions remarkably vary in terms of parents’ gender; fathers’ negative forecasting biases of their children’s emotions are higher than those of mothers. It is significantly different in terms of children’s gender; parents’ negative forecasting biases of their sons are higher than those of their daughters. It is also prominently different in parents’ expectations for their children’s education; parents with high educational expectations for their children tend to have higher biases in predicting their children’s emotions. It is likewise notably different with regard to parents’ accompanying times; those who have been with their children for a long time have lower biases in predicting their children’s emotions. Parents’ forecasting biases of their children's emotions have no significant differences amongst only child or otherwise, annual family income, and parents’ educational levels.

(2) There are three subtypes of parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions: positive underestimation - negative underestimation (52%), positive overestimation - negative underestimation (39.5%), and positive overestimation - negative overestimation (8.5%). In terms of negative parenting style, the positive underestimation-negative underestimation group is remarkably lower than the positive overestimation-negative underestimation group. Meanwhile, in the positive parenting style, there are no apparent differences amongst the three groups. As for the parent-child relationship, the positive overestimation-negative overestimation group is significantly higher than both positive underestimation-negative underestimation and positive overestimation-negative underestimation groups.

3. Influencing factors of parents’ forecasting bias of their children’s emotions

(1) Cognitive neglect significantly influences parents' forecasting biases of their children’s emotions. Specifically, in typical negative emotional situations, parents’ forecasting biases of their children's emotions in the cognitive neglect group are remarkably higher than those of the non-cognitive neglect group. At the same time, such difference is not remarkable in positive emotional situations. Thus, it can be deduced that cognitive neglect increases parents’ negative forecasting biases of their children’s emotions.

(2) Attention focus exerts a significant influence on parents’ negative forecasting biases of their children’s emotions. Specifically, in typical negative emotional situations, parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions in the attention focus group are remarkably lower than those in the control group. Thus, by inference, attention focus reduces parents’ negative forecasting biases of their children’s emotions.

(3) Time and psychological distance have a prominent influence on parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions. Specifically, considering short-term psychological distances, parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions are prominently lower than those considering long-term psychological distances.

(4) Based on the interviews, the effects of cognitive factors like cognitive neglect, attention focus, and time and psychological distance on parents’ forecasting biases of their children’s emotions are verified. Other cognitive factors like memory bias and non-cognitive factors like motivation, personality, and parents’ emotions are likewise found.