生态系统服务的供给能力与需求强度受到人类社会的强烈影响，在生态系统系统服务供需与人类活动强度定量化的基础上探究人类活动对生态系统服务供需平衡的影响对实现区域经济发展和环境保护的协调统一十分重要。 本研究首先利用土地利用/土地覆盖（LULC）供需矩阵对西南地区生态系统服务的供给能力、需求强度和平衡值进行量化，并进行时空分异特征研究。其次利用多指标评价方法进行人类活动强度评价，并基于此分析其空间分布特征。选取重点城镇化区域昆明市为案例区，建立耦合人类活动的生态安全评价指标体系，量化昆明市的人类活动生态效应。引入地理加权回归模型，筛选影响生态系统服务供需平衡的驱动因素，并以此基础，从区县尺度上识别各区县的主导解释变量。进一步选取澜沧江流域为案例区，利用上述方法进行流域与栅格尺度的生态系统服务驱动因子研究。最后从生态系统服务供需优化与战略区划角度为西南地区提供生态系统管理策略支持。 主要结果表明：西南地区不同类型生态系统服务均具有较高的空间异质性，重点城镇化区域对供给服务与文化服务的需求较高，也是供给服务平衡的高度赤字区；四川盆地是调节服务与总生态系统服务需求的高值区，也是生态系统服务赤字区集中分布的地区；西藏南部、广西东部与西北部4类生态系统服务的供给均较高。在1980-2015年间，生态系统供给服务的供给能力呈波动下降趋势；其他3类生态系统服务的供给能力表现为持续下降趋势。供给服务、文化服务、总生态系统服务的需求强度持续增加；调节服务的需求强度在1990年最低，之后稳定在较高水平。各类生态系统服务平衡值在研究区间内一直保持总量盈余，但盈余量总体上均表现为下降趋势。78.75%区县的供给服务平衡与58.61%区县的调节服务平衡在1980-2015年间强烈恶化，且大都分布在重点城镇化地区。 西南地区人类活动强度的高值区集中分布在四川盆地与贵州省，低值区主要分布在西藏南部与西部、四川西部与广西的部分地区，人类活动压力主要来源于重庆市、贵州省等省份。在区县尺度，生态系统服务平衡值主要受人类活动强度的直接反映因子影响，4类生态系统服务平衡共受6类不同方向主导解释变量的影响。在流域尺度的研究中，4类生态系统服务平衡共受7类不同方向主导解释变量的影响，其中LPI是绝大多数像元的主导影响变量，且影响方向为负向。林业产值指标对各城市生态系统服务供给的优化作用最大，其次为林草比例。粮食产量、年末总人口数和能源消耗总量是生态系统服务需求的有效调节因子。此外，基于环境价值与发展效益量化，将西南地区划分为4类战略区，其中冲突区比例为16.96%。 生态系统服务的量化与时空分异分析丰富了西南地区的生态系统服务研究，人类活动与生态系统服务供需的耦合为该地区的生态系统服务调控管理与可持续发展的实现提供了科学依据。

The supply capacity and demand intensity of ecosystem services are strongly influenced by human society. It’s very important for realizing the harmonization of regional economic development and environmental protection to explore the impact of human activities on the supply, demand and balance of ecosystem service based on the quantification of the supply and demand of ecosystem services and the intensity of human activities. In this study, the land use/land cover (LULC) supply and demand matrix was used to quantify the supply capacity, demand intensity and balance value of ecosystem services in Southwest China, and to study the spatial and temporal characteristics. Secondly, the multi-indicator evaluation method was used to evaluate the human activity intensity, and the spatial distribution characteristics were analyzed based on this. Kunming City, a key urbanized area, was selected as a case area to establish an ecological safety evaluation index system that coupled human activities to quantify the ecological effects of human activities in Kunming. The geographically weighted regression model was introduced to screen the driving factors affecting the balance of ecosystem services. Based on this, the dominant explanatory variables of each district and county were identified at the district and county scales. The Lancang River Basin was selected as the case area, and the above-mentioned methods were used to study the ecosystem service driving factors of the basin and grid scale. Finally, it provided ecosystem management strategy support for southwest region from the perspective of ecosystem service supply and demand optimization and strategic zoning. The main results showed that different types of ecosystem services in Southwest China had higher spatial heterogeneity, and the demand for provision services and cultural services was higher in key urbanized areas, which was a high deficit area for supply and service balance; the Sichuan Basin was a high-value area that regulated service and total ecosystem service demand, and was also a concentrated distribution area of ecosystem service deficit areas; the supply of four types of ecosystem services in southern Tibet, eastern Guangxi and northwest was higher. Between 1980 and 2015, the supply capacity of provision services was declining; the supply capacity of the other three types of ecosystem services showed a continuous downward trend. The intensity of demand for provision services, cultural services, and total ecosystem services continued to increase; the intensity of demand for regulate services was the lowest in 1990 and then stabilized at a higher level. The balance of various ecosystem services has maintained a total surplus in the study interval, but the overall surplus had shown a downward trend. The provision service balance of 78.75% districts and counties and the regulate services balance of 58.61% districts and counties deteriorated strongly between 1980 and 2015, and most of them were distributed in key urbanized areas. The high value areas of human activity intensity in the southwest China were concentrated in the Sichuan Basin and Guizhou Province. The low-value areas were mainly distributed in the southern and western parts of Tibet, western Sichuan and parts of Guangxi. The human activities were mainly from the provinces of Chongqing and Guizhou. At the district and county scales, the balance of ecosystem services was mainly affected by the direct reflection factor of the human activities intensity. The balance of the four types of ecosystem services was affected by six different types of dominant explanatory variables. In the study of watershed scale, the balance of four types of ecosystem services was affected by 7 different types of dominant explanatory variables. LPI was the dominant influence variable of most pixels, and the direction of influence was negative. The forestry output value index had the greatest optimization effect on the supply of ecosystem services, followed by the proportion of forest and grass. Food production, total population at the end of the year, and total energy consumption ware effective regulators of ecosystem services demand. The southwest China was divided into four types of strategic zones, of which the proportion of conflict zones was 16.96%. The quantification of ecosystem services and the research on spatial and temporal differentiation have enriched the research on ecosystem services in Southwest China. The coupling of human activities and supply and demand of ecosystem services provides a scientific basis for the regulation and management of ecosystem services and the realization of sustainable development in the region.