| 中文题名： | 不同发展情景下西藏自治区城镇供水安全问题初探 |
| 姓名： | |
| 保密级别： | 公开 |
| 论文语种： | 中文 |
| 学科代码： | 070503 |
| 学科专业： | |
| 学生类型： | 学士 |
| 学位： | 理学学士 |
| 学位年度： | 2022 |
| 学校： | 北京师范大学 |
| 校区： | |
| 学院： | |
| 第一导师姓名： | |
| 第一导师单位： | |
| 提交日期： | 2022-05-31 |
| 答辩日期： | 2022-05-19 |
| 外文题名： | Exploring urban water supply security in Tibet under different development scenarios |
| 中文关键词： | |
| 外文关键词： | water supply security ; scenario prediction ; water demand prediction ; Tibet |
| 中文摘要： |
西藏自治区推进城镇化进程、建设第三极国家公园群，增加了供水安全的不确定性；基于不同情景预测西藏自治区各城市生活用水量，对城市供水安全有重要意义。根据城市综合用水量指标法和GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，以1990-2012年人口数据为基础预测用水量，利用空间基尼系数、ESDA方法对情景预测结果进行评价。结论：①西藏自治区水资源存量大，但供水能力存在不足，供水安全风险大。②人口增长大，分布呈现“昂仁县-南木林县-色尼区-江达县-芒康县”为节点的曲线特征。③用水需求增长大，分布呈现出“昂仁县-桑珠孜区-当雄县-色尼区-卡若区-芒康县”的条带状特征。④整体尺度上，来用水需求空间集聚性减弱，但可能向少数地区进一步集中。⑤热点区域和冷点区域均减少，不同情景空间分布格局相近。；部分冷热点区域包含国家公园范围，需谨慎规划。
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| 外文摘要： |
The Tibet province has promoted the process of urbanization and sought to develop a third pole National Park Group, which has increased the uncertainty of water supply security. Hence, predicting water consumption in this region based on different scenarios is key to ensuring urban water supply security. Through applying the urban comprehensive water consumption index method and GM (1,1) grey prediction model, water consumption is predicted based on the population data from 1990 to 2012, and the scenario prediction results are evaluated by Spatial Gini coefficient and ESDA method. The main findings include: ①There is a large stock of water resources in Tibet, but the water supply capacity is insufficient and the water supply security risk is high.②The population grows rapidly, and the distribution presents the curve characteristics of "Angren County – Nanmulin County -Seni district - Jiangda County - Mangkang County".③The water demand increases greatly, and the distribution shows a strip pattern of "Angren County – Sangzhuzi district – Dangxiong County - Seni district – Karuo district - Mangkang County". ④On the overall scale, the spatial agglomeration of incoming water demand is weakened, but it may be further concentrated in a few areas.⑤The hot spots and cold spots in Tibet have decreased, and the spatial distribution patterns of different scenarios were similar.; Some cold and hot spots include national parks, which should be carefully planned.
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| 参考文献总数： | 63 |
| 作者简介： | 北京师范大学地理科学学部人文地理与城乡规划专业，本科生 |
| 插图总数： | 6 |
| 插表总数： | 9 |
| 馆藏号： | 本070503/22009 |
| 开放日期： | 2023-05-31 |
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