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中文题名:

 地方政府债务、基础设施建设对城乡收入差距的影响研究    

姓名:

 曹乘凤    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 020100    

学科专业:

 理论经济学    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 经济学硕士    

学位类型:

 学术学位    

学位年度:

 2024    

校区:

 北京校区培养    

学院:

 经济与资源管理研究院    

研究方向:

 收入分配;地方政府债务    

第一导师姓名:

 邵晖    

第一导师单位:

 经济与资源管理研究院    

提交日期:

 2024-06-19    

答辩日期:

 2024-05-29    

外文题名:

 RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF LOCAL GOVERNMANT DEVT AND INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE DISPARITY IN URBAN-RURAL INCOME    

中文关键词:

 城乡收入差距 ; 地方政府债务 ; 基础设施建设 ; 中介效应    

外文关键词:

 Urban-rural income gap ; Local government debt ; Infrastructure investment and construction ; Intermediary effect    

中文摘要:

地方政府债务在弥补财政缺口、补充地方财力、引导稳定投资、促进经济增长中发挥了重要作用,是应对经济下行压力一个良好的逆周期调节工具。经济增长的最终目的理应是提高居民可支配收入,城乡差距的缩小有助于促进均衡与协调发展的实现。地方政府债务规模的不断扩张,所引发的社会福利效应不容小觑,其是否存在收入分配效应,对城乡收入差距的影响如何,这些问题的答案将有助于地方政府债务的可持续发展,对推动共同富裕、构建新发展格局具有一定的启示意义。

对此,本文以明晰地方政府债务对城乡收入差距的影响为目标展开研究。在理论分析方面,从财政与政治角度解释债务资金使用偏好基础设施建设的原因,进而从基础设施的投资驱动属性、公共物品属性、外部性讨论其增加就业、提高劳动力转移的便利性、促进非农就业、农村建设、城市化等分析其对城乡收入差距的影响。同时,从地方政府债务的发行、偿还角度分析税收再分配对城乡收入差距的影响。

为实证研究地方政府债务对城乡收入差距的影响,本文以212个地级市2012-2022年数据为基础,通过双向固定效应模型进行分析,并通过替换变量、考虑滞后性、改变样本容量的方法考察结果的稳健性。本文也尝试运用工具变量法以缓解内生性。同时,本文进行了异质性分析,并检验了以基础设施建设为作用渠道的传导机制。

本文研究发现:首先,地方政府债务存在收入分配效应,与城乡收入差距存在显著的正相关关系,地方政府债务规模每增加1单位,城乡收入差距扩大0.023单位。分位数回归的结果表明影响效应随着分位点的增加而增强,在尾端影响更大,为0.040。其次,地方政府债务对城乡收入差距的扩大效应在不同区域、不同发展阶段、城乡之间存在异质性。最后,地方政府债务以基础设施建设为作用渠道影响城乡收入差距。其中,市政基础设施建设与农林水利事务支出均发挥了部分中介效应,有助于缩小城乡收入差距。地方政府债务资金的投向使用对城镇和农村的影响存在非对称性,具有一定的城市倾向。

基于理论分析和实证研究,本文提出以下三点建议:第一,适当负债,合理控制地方政府债务规模。基于地方经济增长需求、资产负债视角、财政与债务可持续发展来确定最优规模与扩张节奏,避免无序扩张,减轻其对城乡收入差距的扩大影响。第二,优化投向,提高地方政府债务资金使用的投入产出效率,扩大基础设施的受益范围,从以“物”为主的投资适当向以“人”为主的投资倾斜。同时,通过推动区域合作,以减少重复建设、盲目建设等恶性竞争现象。第三,因城施策,根据不同地区财政收入、管理水平、产业结构与分布等差异,推行与本地发展相适宜的债务政策。

外文摘要:

Local government debt has played an important role in replenishing local financial resources, making up for the fiscal deficit and promoting economic growth. It is a good countercyclical adjustment tool to cope with downward economic pressure. The ultimate goal of economic growth is to increase the disposable income of residents, and the narrowing of the gap between urban and rural areas is conducive to the realization of balanced and coordinated development. The social welfare effect caused by the continuous expansion of local government debt should not be underestimated. Whether there is income distribution effect and what is the impact on the income gap between urban and rural areas? The answers to these questions will contribute to the sustainable development of local government debt, and have certain implications for the promotion of common prosperity and the construction of a new development pattern.

Therefore, this paper aims to study the impact of local government debt on urban-rural income gap. In terms of theoretical analysis, the paper analyzes the reasons why local government debt funds are used in favor of infrastructure construction from the perspective of finance and politics, and then discusses the relationship between infrastructure construction and urban-rural income gap from the investment-driven attributes and public goods attributes of infrastructure, such as promoting employment increase, improving the convenience of labor transfer, promoting non-agricultural employment, and improving productivity. At the same time, the relationship is observed from the perspective of local government debt issuance and repayment.

In terms of empirical analysis, this paper takes the 2012-2022 panel data of 212 prefecture-level cities as samples, analyzes the relationship through the two-way fixed-effect model, and examines the robustness of the results by replacing variables, considering lag, and changing the sample size. At the same time, this paper analyzes the heterogeneity and examines the transmission mechanism mediated by infrastructure construction.

The results show that: First of all, there is income distribution effect, which is significantly positively correlated with the urban-rural income gap. When the scale of local government debt increases by 1 unit, the urban-rural income gap expands by 0.023 units. The results of quantile regression showed that the effect increased with the increase of subsites, and the effect was greater at the tail end (0.040). Secondly, the amplification effect is heterogeneous in different regions, different development stages and between urban and rural areas. Finally, infrastructure construction is the intermediary channel between the two. Among them, municipal infrastructure construction and agriculture, forestry and water conservancy expenditure both play a part of the intermediary effect, the influence of the former is greater than that of the latter, and the impact on urban and rural areas is asymmetrical.

Based on theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper puts forward the following three suggestions: First, appropriate debt and reasonable control of the scale of local government debt. Determine the optimal scale and pace of expansion based on local economic growth demand, asset liability perspective, finance and debt sustainability, avoid disorderly expansion, and mitigate its impact on the widening urban-rural income gap. Second, optimize investment, improve the input-output efficiency of the use of local government debt funds, expand the scope of benefit of infrastructure, and appropriately shift from "material" investment to "people" investment. At the same time, regional cooperation should be promoted to reduce vicious competition such as duplicate construction and blind construction. Third, in accordance with the differences in fiscal revenue, management level, industrial structure and distribution in different regions, debt policies suitable for local development will be implemented.

参考文献总数:

 102    

馆藏号:

 硕020100/24012    

开放日期:

 2025-06-19    

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