网络问政与政府回应为理解生育政策变迁下的民众诉求提供了一个重要视角。已有研究对网络问政的民众诉求及政府回应进行了大量探讨，然而鲜有研究纵向追踪长时间周期中某一政策变迁下的民众诉求变迁及政府回应。本研究爬取全国性网络问政平台人民网“领导留言板”2011年1月到2022年5月的21万余条留言数据，并从中筛选出４千余条涉及生育政策变迁的留言数据。运用自然语言处理的方法，本研究发现：在政策诉求议题上，从一胎阶段到三胎阶段，民众诉求从“生育”变迁到“养育”实现“质变”，即生育多胎（如户口、准生证）的诉求变少，配套政策诉求变多；在民众表达方式对政府回应的影响上，实名留言可以显著促进政府回应效率；情感倾向对政府回应的效率和效果都没有显著影响；文本长度对政府回应的效率没有显著影响，但能够影响政府回应的效果。对于民众而言，本研究有助于改善留言的表达方式，取得更加满意的政府回应。对于政策制定者而言，本文的研究意义在于帮助其更加准确地把握民意，生育率低、老龄化高等问题难以仅靠准生政策在胎数上的“量变”，而是需要为“质变”的民众诉求解决后顾之忧——进一步完善生育政策的配套措施。

Online political inquiry and government response provide an important perspective for understanding the public’s demands under the change of Birth policy. There have been a lot of studies on public demands and government responses of online political inquiry. Still, few longitudinal studies track the changes of public demands and government responses to a particular policy over a long period. In this study, more than 210,000 messages were collected from the ‘leader message board’ on People’s Daily Online, a national online political platform, from January 2011 to May 2022. More than 4,000 messages related to changes in birth policy were screened out. Using natural language processing method, it was found that in terms of the policy issues, from the one-child stage to the three-child stage, people’s demands have changed from “fertility” to “parenting” to achieve ‘qualitative change’. The demands of having multiple children (such as household registration and birth permit) account for less, while the demands of supporting policies account for more. In terms of the impact of expression on government response, the real-name message can significantly promote the efficiency of government response; Emotional disposition has no significant influence on the efficiency and effect of government response; Text length has no significant effect on the efficiency of government response, but it can affect the effectiveness of government response.  For the public, it is helpful to improve the expression of messages and obtain a more satisfactory response from the government. For policymakers, the significance of this paper lies in helping them grasp public opinion more accurately. Low birth rate and high aging rate cannot only rely on the ‘quantitative change’ in the number of births of the quasi birth policy, but needs to meet the public’s demands of ‘qualitative change’ -- supporting measures to further improve the birth policy.