次贷危机后美国为提振经济，采取了长时间的量化宽松政策，随着经济逐步复苏，于2015年开启了多轮加息进程。自疫情以来美国经济遭受重创，为恢复国民经济采取了量化宽松政策，从2021年4月开始，美国通胀水平一路飙升。2022年3月开始，为控制严重的通胀，美联储逐步上调联邦基金利率，实施了多轮量化紧缩政策，该政策的实施也不可避免地使世界各国的经济和金融市场受到了影响。

本文旨在研究自2015年以来美联储的加息政策对人民币汇率所产生的影响。基于货币政策的溢出效应等基础理论，本文选择了人民币兑美元汇率中间价、中美利差、中国M2、美国M2、沪深300指数、汇率预期及中美相对价格水平等关键变量。通过VAR模型实证分析，发现美联储的货币紧缩政策对人民币汇率具有直接的负向影响，多种经济变量的波动共同影响了人民币汇率。针对美联储货币政策对人民币汇率产生的具体影响，本文采取定性与定量结合的方式，意在获得应对美联储加息的经验。有助于防止我国外汇市场出现过度波动，确保国民经济的平稳运行和健康发展。

After the subprime crisis,the United States adopted a long-term quantitative easing strategy to boost the economy.With the gradual recovery of the economy,it began to raise interest rates in 2015.Since the emergence of the pandemic,the US economy has been hit hard and adopted quantitative easing policies to restore the national economy.Since April 2021,the US inflation level has been soaring.Since March 2022,in order to control severe inflation,the Federal Reserve has gradually raised the federal funds rate,and the Federal Reserve has implemented several rounds of quantitative tightening policies.The implementation of this policy has inevitably affected the economic and financial markets of countries around the world.

This paper seeks to investigate the effect of the Federal Reserve's interest rate increases from 2015 onwards on the RMB exchange rate.Drawing on fundamental theories such as the spillover effects of monetary policy, key variables including the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar, the Sino-US interest rate differential, China's M2, US M2, the CSI 300 Index, exchange rate expectations, and relative price levels between China and the United States are selected. Through empirical analysis using the VAR model, this paper finds that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes exert an adverse effect on the RMB exchange rate. The fluctuations of various economic variables jointly influence the RMB exchange rate. Through an examination of the Fed's monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate, this study acquires empirical understanding of strategies to react to the Fed's monetary tightening measures, which can help prevent excessive fluctuations in China's foreign exchange market and ensure the stable operation and healthy development of the national economy.