本文以“特征分析—影响评估—敏感区划”的研究思路为指导，首先，分析1981-2015年农作物生长期内农业气候要素的时空变化特征，并构建综合气候因子（CCF）指标。然后，通过C- D- C模型定量地评估过去35年间粮食产量对气候变化影响的敏感性，分析在“五年规划”经济背景下粮食产量受气候变化影响的弹性波动，以及预测未来20-35年间不同共享社会经济路径（SSPs）下气候变化影响量对粮食产量的贡献度。最后，以综合气候因子的变化趋势值、波动特征值、产出弹性和气候变化影响率为区划指标，进行综合气候变化敏感带划分。主要结果如下：

（1）1981-2015年生长期内粮食生产区的南、北板块农业气候要素变化的时空特征表现为气温升高、降水增多、日照时数减少的暖湿化趋势，降水量表现为由北向南增多的空间分布，日照时数表现为由北向南减少的空间分布。

（2）综合气候因子是一个由大气环境的不同气候因子，如气温、降水量、日照时数等综合统计而成的指标。粮食生产区1981-2015年生长期内综合气候变化的时空特征表现为综合气候因子随时间变化呈现正向趋势，且北板块的变化速率快于南板块；北板块综合气候因子表现为“西低东高”的空间分布，南板块表现为“西北低东南高”的空间分布。

（3）以粮食主产区为例，北区1981-2015年生长期内粮食产量对气候变化影响的敏感性要比南区强，北区的综合气候因子产出弹性为0.228，南区为0.092，说明综合气候因子每增加10%，北区粮食产量提高2.28%，南区粮食产量提高0.92%。在“五年规划”经济背景下，综合气候因子的产出弹性随5年时间变化呈现上升趋势，北区变化速率为0.05/(5a），南区变化速率为0.04/(5a），且弹性值具有上下波动的特征。

（4）在SSP126、SSP245、SSP585气候情景预测下，北区未来20-35年间气候变化影响量对粮食产量的贡献程度大于南区，北区粮食产量对气候变化影响的敏感性要强于南区，且不同省区的气候变化影响率在空间分布上具有明显的差异性。其中，在2016-2035年间，北区的气候变化影响率在三种情景下分别为9.9%、10.1%、10.2%，南区的气候变化影响率在三种情景下均为-1.3%，这主要与各自区域的气候产出弹性以及社会、经济、自然因素的发展变化有关。在2016-2050年间，北区的气候变化影响率在三种情景下分别为17.6%、18.0%、18.0%，南区的气候变化影响率在三种情景下分别为9.9%、10.1%、10.1%。

（5）在综合气候变化敏感带中，过去35年间黑龙江、河南、湖南和四川省属于高敏感区，预计未来20年间河北、河南、湖南和四川省属于高敏感区，未来35年间河南、湖南、江西、广东省属于高敏感区。

This paper is guided by the research idea of "characteristic analysis-impact assessment-sensitive zoning". First, it analyzed the characteristics of the spatiotemporal changes of agricultural climatic factors during the 1981-2015 growth season, and constructed a comprehensive climate factor (CCF) indicator. Then, it quantitatively assessed the sensitivity of food production to the impact of climate change over the past 35 years by the C-D-C model , analyzed the elastic fluctuations of the impact of climate change on grain yields in the context of the "The Five-Year Plan" economy, and predicted the contribution of climate change impacts to grain yields under the different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the next 20-35 years (2016-2050). Finally, the comprehensive climate change sensitive zone was divided by the indicators of the change trend value, volatility characteristic value, output elasticity and climate change impact ratio of CCF. The main conclusions are as follows:

(1) From 1981 to 2015, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the agricultural climate elements changes during the growth period of the north-south plate of the grain-production areas were characterized by the warming and humidification trend of rising temperature, increasing precipitation and decreasing sunshine hours. The precipitation showed a spatial distribution that increases from north to south, and the sunshine hours showed a spatial distribution that decreases from north to south.

(2) The comprehensive climate factor(CCF) is an index that is synthesized by different climatic factors of the atmospheric environment, such as temperature, precipitation, and sunshine hours. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the integrated climate change in the grain-production areas during the 1981-2015 growth season showed that the CCF showed a positive trend with time, and the change rate of the North plate was faster than that of the South plate. The CCF of the North Plate was showed as "spatial distribution of low west and high east". The South plate showed the spatial distribution of "low northwest and high southeast".

(3) Taking the main grain-production areas as an example, food production was more sensitive to climate change in North region than in South region during the 1981-2015 growth season. The output elasticity of CCF was 0.228 in North region and that was 0.092 in South region, indicating that for every 10% increase in CCF, the grain yields in North region increased by 2.28% and the South region increased by 0.92%. Under the economic background of the "The Five-Year Plan", the output elasticity of CCF showed an upward trend with the change of the five-year period. The value had the characteristic of fluctuating up and down.

(4) Under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 climate scenario predictions, the impact of the future climate change in the North region would contribute more to food production than the South region in the next 20-35 years. The sensitivity of food production to the impact of climate change in the North region was stronger than that in the South region, and the impact ratios of climate change in different provinces had obvious differences in spatial distribution. Among them, the impact ratios of climate change over North region from 2016 to 2035 were 9.9%, 10.1%, and 10.2% under the three scenarios, respectively, and the impact ratios of climate change in South region were all -1.3%. These were mainly related to the climatic output elasticity and the development and changes of social, economic and natural factors in each region. The impact ratios of climate change over North region from 2016 to 2050 were 17.6%, 18.0%, and 18.0% under three scenarios, respectively, and the impact ratios of climate change over South region were 9.9%, 10.1%, and 10.1%, respectively.

(5) Among the integrated climate change zone, Heilongjiang, Henan, Hunan and Sichuan provinces were highly sensitive regions. In the integrated climate change sensitive zone from 2016 to 2035, Hebei, Henan, Hunan and Sichuan provinces were highly sensitive regions. In the integrated climate change sensitive zone from 2016 to 2050, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi, and Guangdong provinces were highly sensitive regions.