数字贸易随着数字经济的发展而出现，使贸易对象和贸易方式发生了全新改变。随着互联网技术的发展和数字化转型的加速，数字贸易作为信息技术与全球化贸易交织的产物，逐渐成为数字经济的重要部分和全球贸易发展的重要趋势。重视数字贸易的发展，建设世界贸易大国，是我国扩大对外开放、形成更高层次开放型经济和加快实现国内国际双循环的新发展格局的战略抉择。

本文先从数字贸易的定义、数字贸易发展水平的测度、数字贸易发展影响因素的研究三个方面进行文献梳理，然后从数字贸易环境、数字贸易技术和数字贸易潜力三个一级指标下选取七个二级指标，进一步选定17个指标构成我国数字贸易发展综合评价指标体系。在此基础上，以我国除港澳台地区外的31个省、直辖市、自治区为研究对象，收集各省2013年到2022年的指标数据，通过主成分分析建立数字贸易发展水平综合评价得分函数，横向对比各省数字贸易发展的平均水平，纵向研究我国整体、四大区域和部分重点省份的数字贸易发展水平随时间的变化情况；用动态时间弯曲法度量省份间相似性，并用层次聚类法将所有省份划分为了三类，结合主成分综合得分结果，说明每类省份的地理位置特点并分析其数字贸易发展现状。进一步，以计算得到的数字贸易综合得分为指标代表数字贸易发展水平，选取经济发展水平、产业结构、政府支持度和对外开放水平四个指标，建立面板向量自回归模型研究各因素对数字贸易发展的影响机制。

在我国数字贸易发展水平综合评价中得到以下三个结论。一是我国数字贸易发展与地理位置联系紧密，从东部沿海地区延伸到西部地区，数字贸易发展水平先快速降低后缓慢降低。二是我国数字贸易发展存在严重的两极分化问题，以广东省为首的东部省份是我国数字贸易发展的主要力量，其余省份大部分数字贸易发展水平落后于全国平均水平。三是全国各省在这十年内数字贸易发展共同受到的巨大冲击由新冠疫情带来，主要表现在2020年发展受阻和在2021年迅速恢复。

在我国数字贸易发展影响因素研究中得到以下两个结论。一是局部视角下，我国数字贸易发展水平受到自身以及经济发展水平、产业结构和对外开放水平这四个因素的滞后一阶的正向显著影响，政府支持度的一阶滞后表现出轻微的负向影响但不显著。二是全局视角下，数字贸易发展水平的波动在短期之内主要来自于自身和经济发展水平的影响；产业结构和对外开放水平在短期内对数字贸易发展水平的影响不明显，但长期来看对其预测误差方差的解释能力较强。

Digital trade has emerged with the development of the digital economy, bringing about entirely new changes in trade objects and trade methods. With the development of Internet technology and the acceleration of digital transformation, digital trade, as a product of the interweaving of information technology and globalized trade, has gradually become an important part of the digital economy and an important trend in the development of global trade. Attaching importance to the development of digital trade and building a world trade power is a strategic choice for China to expand its opening up to the outside world, form a higher-level open economy and accelerate the realization of a new development pattern of domestic and international double cycle.

In this paper, we first sort out the literature from the definition of digital trade, the measurement of the level of digital trade development, and the research on the factors influencing the development of digital trade, and then select seven secondary indicators under the three first-level indicators of digital trade environment, digital trade technology, and digital trade potential, and further select 17 indicators to constitute a comprehensive evaluation index system of China's digital trade development. On this basis, 31 provinces, municipalities directly under the central government and autonomous regions in China, except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, are taken as the research objects, and the indicator data of each province from 2013 to 2022 are collected, and the comprehensive evaluation score function of digital trade development level is established through principal component analysis, which compares horizontally with the average level of digital trade development of each province, and vertically researches the level of digital trade development of the whole of China, the four major regions and some key provinces with the change of The changes in the level of digital trade development of China as a whole, the four regions and some key provinces over time are investigated vertically; the similarity among provinces is measured by the dynamic time bending method, and all the provinces are divided into three categories by the hierarchical clustering method, which is combined with the results of the integrated score of principal components to illustrate the geographic characteristics of each category and analyze the current status of their digital trade development. Further, using the calculated digital trade composite score as an indicator to represent the level of digital trade development, the panel vector autoregression model is established to study the influence mechanism of each factor on the development of digital trade by selecting four indicators: the level of economic development, the industrial structure, the degree of government support and the level of opening up to the outside world.

The following two conclusions are obtained in the study of factors influencing the development of digital trade in China. One is that China's digital trade development is closely linked to its geographical location, extending from the eastern coastal region to the western region, and the level of digital trade development first decreases rapidly and then slowly. Second, there is a serious polarization problem in China's digital trade development, with the eastern provinces led by Guangdong Province as the main force in China's digital trade development, and most of the remaining provinces lagging behind the national average level of digital trade development. Thirdly, the huge impact on digital trade development common to all provinces in the country during this decade was brought about by the new crown epidemic, which was mainly manifested in the blockage of development in 2020 and rapid recovery in 2021.

The following two conclusions are obtained in the comprehensive evaluation of China's digital trade development level. First, under the local perspective, the level of China's digital trade development is significantly affected by itself as well as the level of economic development, industrial structure and the level of opening up to the outside world, which is positively and significantly affected by the lag of the four factors of the first order, and the lag of the first order of the government's support degree shows a slight negative impact but is not significant. Secondly, under the global perspective, the fluctuation of the digital trade development level comes mainly from its own influence and the influence of the economic development level in the short term; the industrial structure and the level of opening up to the outside world do not have a significant influence on the digital trade development level in the short term, but the explanatory power of its prediction error variance is stronger in the long term.