| 中文题名： | 成都市耕地利用效率及影响因素研究 |
| 姓名： | |
| 保密级别： | 公开 |
| 论文语种： | 中文 |
| 学科代码： | 0705Z1 |
| 学科专业： | |
| 学生类型： | 硕士 |
| 学位： | 理学硕士 |
| 学位类型： | |
| 学位年度： | 2022 |
| 校区： | |
| 学院： | |
| 第一导师姓名： | |
| 第一导师单位： | |
| 提交日期： | 2022-06-07 |
| 答辩日期： | 2022-06-04 |
| 外文题名： | Research on Cultivated Land Use Efficiency and Influencing Factors in Chengdu City |
| 中文关键词： | 耕地利用效率 ; 影响因素 ; 数据包络分析 ; Malmquist指数 ; 成都市 |
| 外文关键词： | Cultivated land use efficiency ; Influencing factor ; Data envelopment analysis ; Malmquist index ; Chengdu city |
| 中文摘要： |
随着“十四五”时期成都市推进重点领域产业布局，着力构建高质量发展的现代产业体系，加快推动建设践行新发展理念的公园城市示范区，打造具有全球影响力的新经济策源地和活力区建设用地的需求压力不断加大，同时，近年来国际地缘政治带来国际农产品市场供给的不确定性，国家粮食安全成为“三农”工作的首要任务。在此背景下，因地制宜、分区引导提高有限耕地资源的利用效率，对促进成都市社会、经济与资源相协调的可持续发展，具有重大的现实意义。
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本文以成都市县域为研究单元，构建耕地利用效率评价指标体系，在分析成都市耕地利用投入产出现状的基础上，运用数据包络分析法中规模报酬可变的BCC模型，对2012-2020年成都市耕地利用效率进行评价；结合Malmquist指数，从动态角度分析全要素耕地利用效率的差异变化；从空间视角分析县域耕地利用效率在不同时点上的差异，并利用空间自相关分析方法，研究县域耕地利用效率的空间聚集特征；最后构建Tobit回归模型，找到高、中、低三类效率区域的主要影响因素，并根据投入要素冗余情况分析，提出DEA非有效改进路径及提高耕地利用效率对策建议。本文主要研究结论如下： （1）2012-2020年成都市耕地利用综合效率总体呈逐年小幅波动上升的趋势，平均值为0.677，提高耕地利用效率的关键是提高纯技术效率，耕地利用效率高于平均水平的县域数量仅占总体的40%，说明成都市提升效率水平的空间较大。研究期内全要素耕地利用效率年均增长10.5%，呈现出快速增长趋势，15个区（市、县）的全要素耕地利用效率均大于1，并且80%的区（市、县）技术进步效率涨幅超过技术效率，说明全要素耕地利用效率的增长属于技术主导型。 （2）从整体上来看，成都市耕地利用效率在空间上存在较大差异性，整体上呈现“东高西低”的分布特征，这与成都市的农业产业规划有很大关系，高效率主要集中在经济发展水平较高的龙泉驿、温江、双流和自然条件较好的郫都、青白江等地。2012年以来成都市耕地利用效率在空间上的自相关性逐渐增强，且正向相关性占主导地位，15个区（市、县）的耕地利用效率在空间上有较明显的空间集聚特征，“High-High”类型区域不断聚集，“Low-Low”类型区域有向西部移动的趋势。 （3）成都市耕地利用投入要素除农业机械总动力外，其他3个投入要素呈现出不同程度的冗余现象，尤其以化肥使用量的冗余比例最大。研究期内，冗余情况均有所改善，冗余比例不同程度下降，说明现代农业科学种植正不断发挥作用。另外，冗余现象也呈现出空间聚集分布的态势，主要集中在低效率区，如大邑、邛崃、崇州的冗余现象比较严重，这也是耕地利用效率偏低的原因之一。结合2020年冗余情况和影响因素分析，应该从合理配置生产资源，使用先进技术入手，实现低效率区DEA有效路径。 （4）除农村居民人均可支配收入外，劳均种植面积、耕地复种指数、粮经种植比、人均GDP、单位种植面积农业机械总动力、单位种植面积施肥量、农业从业人员占社会从业人员比例等7个因素对耕地利用效率具有显著影响，但各因素对高、中、低三类效率区域的影响程度和方向有所不同。经济发展促进农业生产条件的根本性变化，农业现代化进程推动农业产业结构升级，两者对耕地利用效率的影响程度呈增加趋势，而耕地资源禀赋的影响程度逐渐减弱。 （5）西部平原区，地处精华灌溉带，腾退低效农业用地，合理优化种植结构，打造优质粮油基地示范区；西部山区，发展高附加值农业产业，注重文旅与现代农业的全新融合；北部龙门山区，在传统蔬菜种植基础上，挖掘特色产品，健全产业发展模式；东部丘陵区，推动特色产业发展，构建现代农业、绿色加工等为一体的融合发展新模式。 |
| 外文摘要： |
During the 14th Five-Year Period, Chengdu has been promoting the industrial layout of key fields, focusing on building a modern industrial system with high-quality development, accelerating the construction of Park City Demonstration Area with the new development concept and creating a new and dynamic economic source area with global influence. Therefore, the demand for construction land is increasing, and so is the pressure. At the same time, as the international geopolitics has brought uncertainty to the supply of international agricultural markets in recent years, national food security has become the top priority of the "agriculture, rural areas, and rural residents" work. Under these circumstances, it is of great practical significance to improve the efficiency of the limited arable land resources according to local conditions, and to promote the sustainable and coordinated development of society, economy and resources in Chengdu.
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This study, taking the counties of Chengdu as the research units, constructed the evaluation index system of cultivated land use efficiency. Based on the analysis of the input and output of cultivated land use situation in Chengdu, it evaluated the cultivated land use efficiency in Chengdu from 2012 to 2020 with VRS-BCC DEA; Combined with Malmquist index, it analyzed differences and changes in Total Factor Cultivated Land Use Efficiency(TFCLUE)from 2012 to 2020 from a dynamic perspective.; Also, it Analyzed the differences of county cultivated land use efficiency at different time points from the perspective of space, and studied the spatial aggregation features of county cultivated land use efficiency with ESDA; Finally, it built a Tobit regression model to find the main influencing factors in high, medium and low efficiency areas, and according to the analysis of input factors redundancy, put forward the improvement path of non- effective DEA and some suggestions for improving cultivated land use efficiency. The results showed as follows： (1) From 2012 to 2020, the overall cultivated land use efficiency in Chengdu shows a slight upward trend year by year, the average point is 0.677. The key to improving the cultivated land use efficiency is to improve the pure technical efficiency. The number of counties where the cultivated land use efficiency is above the average level accounts for 40 of the total, showing that there is a large room for improving the efficiency level. During the study period, the TFCLUE in Chengdu grew by an average annual rate of 10.5%, presenting a fast growing trend. The TFCLUE of 15 districts (cities and counties included) is higher than 1. Moreoever, the increase rate of the technological progress efficiency in 80% of these districts (cities and counties) exceeded that of the technological efficiency, indicating that the growth of TFCLUE is led by technology. (2) On the whole, There exist large differences of the cultivated land use efficiency of Chengdu in space, showing a distribution feature of "high in the east and low in the west" , which is greatly related to the agricultural industry planning of Chengdu. The high efficiency zones are mainly distributed in Longquanyi, Wenjiang and Shuangliu with high economic development level, and Pidu and Qingbaijiang with good natural conditions, the cultivated land use efficiency of Chengdu shows self-correlation in space from 2012, and the 15 districts (cities and counties) have obvious spatial agglomeration features, the positive correlation playing a dominant role. The ' High-High ' type areas continue to gather, and the ' Low-Low ' type areas tend to move westward. (3) Except for the total power of agricultural machinery, the other three input factors of cultivated land use in Chengdu shows different degrees of redundancy, among which the redundancy proportion of chemical fertilizer use is the largest. During the study period, the situation of redundancy of all three input factors has been improved with the redundancy ratio decreasing to different degrees, indicating that the scientific cultivation of modern agriculture is playing a role constantly. In addition,the redundancy phenomenon also shows a spatial aggregation distribution trend,mainly in the low efficiency zones,such as Dayi,Qionglai and Chongzhou,where the redundancy phenomenon is comparatively serious,which is one of the reasons that the cultivated land use efficiency is low.With the analysis of the situation of redundancy and its influencing factors, we can achieve an effective path of DEA through rational allocation of production resources and investment in advanced technology. (4) In addition to per capita disposable income of rural residents, the other seven factors, such as average labor planting area, multiple crop index, grain-to-economy planting ratio, per capita GDP, total agricultural machinery power per planting area, fertilizer application per planting area, and the ratio of agricultural employees to social employees, have significant influence on cultivated land use efficiency, but the degree and direction of influence of each factor in the high, medium and low efficiency areas are different. In general, economic development promotes fundamental changes in agricultural production conditions, and progress of agricultural modernization drives the upgrading of agricultural industrial structure. Together the degree of the influence of the two factors to cultivated land use efficiency is on the rise and the degree of the influence of the arable land resource diminishes. (5) In the western plain area, where the essential irrigation belt is located, we should vacate inefficient agricultural land, optimize the planting structure reasonably, and build a high-quality grain and oil base demonstration area; In the western mountainous areas, we should develop high value-added agricultural industry, and attach importance to the new integration of culture, tourism and modern agriculture; In Longmen Mountain Area of the north, based on the traditional vegetable planting, we should excavate characteristic products and improve the industrial development model; In the eastern hilly region, we should promote the development of characteristic industries and construct a new integrated development model integrating modern agriculture and green processing. |
| 参考文献总数： | 67 |
| 馆藏号： | 硕0705Z1/22009 |
| 开放日期： | 2023-06-07 |
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