人口是社会发展的主体，也是影响经济可持续发展的关键因素。然而，近年来我国的人口出生率和自然增长率不断下降，2022年人口出生率创下建国以来新低，人口自然增长率突破零大关下降到负数，我国人口开始自然减少；人口老龄化严重，2021年全国老年抚养比达到20.8%，有专家认为到2050年将达到43%. 国家虽然出台一系列优化生育政策，但效果有限。另一方面，名义和实际房价连续14年上升，这对有购房需求的居民造成一定压力，有可能影响居民的生育决策。

本文从宏观和微观两个角度研究人口出生率和房价的关系，通过实证论证房价上升是否会抑制人口出生率上涨；总结这种作用的两个机理，对实证结果进行解释；再通过家庭数据从微观的角度探讨房价上涨对生育意愿的作用，最后对两种机理进行评价。

首先使用2006至2019年省级面板数据进行实证研究，证实了房价上涨对出生率有抑制作用，房价每上涨1%，人口出生率的数值下降0.048‰. 按经济发展水平分类和按地理位置分类回归的结果表明，房价上涨对出生率的影响在中、西部地区和经济欠发达、中等发达地区更为显著。

然后，总结两种房价对出生率产生影响的机理，分别是“财富效应和挤出效应”与“家庭时间分配理论”，分别使用两种机理解释省际数据的回归结果。

第三，使用2019年中国家庭金融调查(China Household Finance Survey, CHFS)数据进行实证研究，证明房价上涨会影响家庭生育决策，房价每上涨10000元，两年内生育的可能性与不生育的可能性之比下降1.15. 房价上涨对生育意愿的抑制作用主要体现在二胎决策上，对一胎决策影响不显著。在城镇地区房价对家庭生育意愿影响明显，在乡村影响较小。研究发现家庭中有人看护孩子能显著促进生育意愿。实证结果支持家庭时间分配理论的机理解释，认为财富效应与挤出效应的解释需要一定的补充和修正。

最后，总结全文，提出针对性的政策建议，建议调控房价，出台购房优惠政策、二胎生育激励政策，延长产假，健全养老服务体系，组建半盈利性婴幼儿看护机构等。

我们应当意识到长期低出生率会对人口结构和经济增长带来负面作用，不利于我国经济的可持续发展，而且低生育率难以逆转。如果能够重视房价对出生率的影响，出台相应调控措施，同时，建立健全完善的婴幼儿看护保障体系，政府、企业、家庭一同发力，就能改善人口结构，应对未来的老龄化大潮。

The population is a fundamental pillar of social development and a crucial factor influencing the sustainable development of the economy. In recent years, China's birth rate and natural population growth rate have exhibited a continuous decline. In 2022, the birth rate hit a new historic low since the founding of the People's Republic of China. Moreover, the natural growth rate of the population has dropped below zero, resulting in a natural decline in China's population. The issue of aging population has become increasingly severe, with the national elderly dependency ratio projected to reach 20.8% in 2021 and possibly even 43% by 2050, according to some experts. Despite the government's implementation of a series of policies, their impact has been limited. Conversely, nominal and real estate prices have risen for 14 consecutive years, which has placed significant financial pressure on residents who aspire to purchase new homes, potentially influencing their decisions regarding fertility.

This paper aims to study the impact of housing prices on the birth rate from both macro and micro perspectives. It seeks to empirically examine whether the increasing housing prices have a dampening effect on the birth rate, and to summarize the two prevailing theories regarding how housing prices impact the birth rate. Finally, the paper analyzes the role of rising housing prices on fertility desires by leveraging family survey data and evaluates the two aforementioned theories.

First, this study employs provincial panel data spanning from 2006 to 2019 to conduct empirical research, which validates that the increase in housing prices has a suppressing impact on the birth rate. Specifically, every 1% growth in housing prices results in a 0.048‰ decline in the birth rate. Further regression analysis by economic development level and geographical location demonstrates that the surge in housing prices exerts a more substantial influence on the birth rate in the central and western regions, as well as economically underdeveloped and moderately developed areas.

Next, the paper summarizes the two main theories on how housing prices affect the birth rate: "wealth effect and crowding out effect" and "theory of the allocation of time".

Thirdly, the study proceeds to conduct empirical research using data from the 2019 China Household Finance Survey (CHFS), which establishes that housing prices have an impact on family fertility decisions. Specifically, every 10,000 yuan increase in housing prices results in a 1.15 decline in the ratio of the probability of fertility to the probability of infertility within two years. This effect is mainly evident in the decision to have a second child and does not significantly impact the decision to have a first child. Moreover, in urban areas, the impact of housing prices on family fertility intentions is more pronounced, while it is relatively limited in rural areas. The study further reveals that having a family member to care for the child can significantly promote fertility desire. These empirical findings lend support to the theory of the allocation of time, and suggest that explanations of the wealth effect and crowding out effect need to be supplemented and revised.

Finally, summarize the paper and put forward targeted policy recommendations. The paper suggests that policy interventions could include measures to regulate house prices, issuing preferential policies for house purchases, incentive policies for second births, extending maternity leave, improving the elderly care service system, and establishing infant care institutions.

We should recognize that the long-term low birth rate will have negative impacts on population structure and economic growth, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of China's economy, and reversing the low birth rate trend is challenging. However, by giving due attention to the impact of house prices on the birth rate, implementing corresponding policies, and promoting cooperation among the government, enterprises, and families, we can improve the population structure and keep up with the trend of an aging population.