人口是一个国家发展的基础。经过长期计划生育政策的管控和当前越来越高的生育成本，我国的人口形势已经进入一个十分严峻的时期，在全面放开生育政策后，人口出生率仍在快速下降。教师是我国广大基层职业之一，是中国基础教育的核心力量。但在当下经济高速发展的时代，教师在职业发展过程中面临着诸多如工资水平偏低、购房能力差、城乡之间学校配套资源不均衡、工作压力增大的问题，而这些问题将深刻影响着教师的生育意愿。本文使用了CTPS2020的数据，以四个省份的5069位中小学教师问卷调查数据为基础，通过构建包含现实生育情况和潜在生育意愿的综合生育意愿指标来代表教师的生育意愿，研究调查中3994名已婚教师生育意愿的影响因素。

首先，本文通过描述性统计分析了教师的婚姻情况、已生育情况以及再生育意愿情况。数据显示：各年龄阶段的教师平均生育孩子数有显著差异，31-40岁平均生育孩子数最多，为1.44个；教师平均生育孩子数在性别、教学阶段、城乡、地域方面有显著差异；随着年龄的增大、生育孩子数的增多，教师再生育意愿会出现明显的下降。

其次，本研究使用了OLS模型进行回归分析，并将影响教师综合生育意愿的因素细分到个人与家庭层面、工作层面、地域层面三个层面来研究。主要结论包括：（1）在个人与家庭层面：家庭住房面积越大、性别为男性的教师综合生育意愿更高。（2）工作层面：拥有事业编制的教师其综合生育意愿更高；教师工资收入总额与综合生育意愿呈现了U型关系，随着工资收入总额的增加，教师综合生育意愿会出先减少后增加；在未加入省份固定效应时，城市教师比农村教师有更高的综合生育意愿；幼儿园教师相对其他阶段教师拥有更高的综合生育意愿。（3）地域层面：由于经济发展、自然环境、文化传统等条件的不同，不同省份的教师综合生育意愿存在一定差异。研究结论通过有序逻辑回归和工具变量法的稳健性检验，证实了模型结论的稳健性。

研究还将教师按照性别、年龄阶段、城乡、省份分为不同组群，进行了组群异质性分析。家庭住房面积、性别、工资总额、是否拥有事业编制等因素对教师综合生育意愿的影响出现了组群上的异质性。在研究教师二孩、三孩生育意愿中发现教师出现了强烈的性别偏好：第一个孩子为女孩的教师二孩生育意愿要显著高于第一个孩子为男孩的教师；在31-40岁教师中，两个孩子都为女孩的教师三孩生育意愿要显著高于两个孩子都为男孩、儿女双全的教师。

最后，本研究提出如下政策建议：（1）为教师提供保障性住房或者购房补贴，缓解教师住房压力。（2）为教师提供生育补贴，缓解教师因为生育而产生的经济压力。（3）为优秀中青年教师提供直接转入编制的机会。（4）为农村教师提供更好的社会公共服务。

Population is the foundation of a country’s development. After long-term control of the family planning policy and the current rising cost of childbirth, China’s population situation has entered a very severe period. Even after the full liberalization of the birth policy, the birth rate is still declining rapidly. Teachers are one of China’s vast grassroots professions and are the core force of China’s basic education. However, in the current era of rapid economic development, teachers face many problems such as low teacher salary levels, poor housing affordability, uneven distribution of school resources between urban and rural areas, and increased work pressure during their career development. These problems will profoundly affect teachers’ willingness to have children. This article uses data from CTPS2020 and is based on a questionnaire survey of 5069 primary and secondary school teachers in four provinces. By constructing a comprehensive fertility willingness index that includes actual fertility status and potential fertility willingness to represent teachers’ fertility willingness, this study examines the influencing factors of fertility willingness among 3994 married teachers.

Firstly, this article analyzes teachers’ marital status, fertility status, and willingness to have children through descriptive statistics. The data shows that there are significant differences in the average number of children born by teachers at different age stages. The average number of children born by teachers aged 31-40 is the highest at 1.44; there are significant differences in the average number of children born by teachers in terms of gender, teaching stage, urban-rural areas, and regions; as age increases and the number of children born increases, teachers’ willingness to have children again will show a significant decline.

Secondly, this study uses an OLS model for regression analysis and subdivides the factors that affect teachers’ comprehensive fertility willingness into three levels: personal and family level, work level, and regional level. The main conclusions include: (1) At the personal and family level. The larger the family housing area and male gender teachers have higher comprehensive fertility willingness. (2) Work level. Teachers with career establishment have higher comprehensive fertility willingness; teacher salary income total amount has a U-shaped relationship with comprehensive fertility willingness. As salary income total amount increases, teacher comprehensive fertility willingness will decrease first and then increase; when the fixed effect of the province is not included, urban teachers have a higher comprehensive fertility willingness than rural teachers; kindergarten teachers have a higher comprehensive fertility willingness than teachers in other stages. (3) At the regional level, due to the different conditions of economic development, natural environment, cultural traditions and so on, there are certain differences in the comprehensive fertility willingness of teachers in different provinces. The research conclusion has passed the robustness test of ordered logistic regression and instrumental variable method to confirm the robustness of the model conclusion.

The research also divides teachers into different groups according to gender, age stage, urban-rural areas, and provinces for group heterogeneity analysis. Factors such as family housing area, gender, salary income total amount, whether they have career establishment or not have shown group heterogeneity in their impact on teacher’s comprehensive fertility willingness. In studying teacher’s second-child and third-child fertility willingness it was found that teachers showed a strong gender preference: teachers with a first child as a girl had significantly higher second-child fertility willingness than those with a first child as a boy; among teachers aged 31-40, teachers who gave birth to two girls had significantly higher third-child fertility willingness than those who gave birth to two boys or both boys and girls.

Finally, this study proposes the following policy recommendations: (1) Provide guaranteed housing or housing subsidies for teachers to alleviate teacher housing pressure. (2) Provide childbirth subsidies for teachers to alleviate economic pressure caused by childbirth. (3) Provide opportunities for outstanding young and middle-aged teachers to directly transfer into establishment. (4) Provide better social public services for rural teachers.