概率作为概率与统计课程的四大主题之一，不仅涵盖了这一主题的大部分内容，而且 与其他三个主题的数学内容密切相关，可见概率在高中数学中的地位。从近五年的高考卷 的数学题型来看，考查的概率知识题型与分值比较稳定，并且更加注重考查学生解决概率 综合问题的能力。概率知识点相对来说比较抽象和综合，学生在解决概率问题的过程中， 产生一些错误是无法避免的。因此，调查高三学生解决概率问题的现状和研究其在解概率 题中存在的问题及原因是有必要的。

已有文献中，概率研究主要集中在对中学生概率学习认知水平研究、对中学生概率学 习错误研究以及对教师概率教学的研究等方面。虽然对高中生解题能力现状的研究较多， 但是将概率与解题能力相结合的研究还是相对较少。本文选择高三学生作为研究对象，对 高三学生的概率解题情况进行定量和定性分析，之后再进行归因分析，最后给出一些建议。

本研究采用文献研究法、测试法和访谈法，调查高三年级学生关于解决概率问题的现 状，并从基础知识、解题方法、书面表达、情感态度这四个方面对现状进行总结。研究发 现，高三学生解决概率问题的现状为：大部分高三学生在解决概率问题中能做到不失分， 但还有一些学生存在以下情况：（1）由于概率知识不过关而导致解题错误；（2）在选择概 率解题方法时仍存在困难；（3）由于解答概率题的过程不严谨导致失分；（4）面对概率题容易产生畏难情绪，缺乏自信心。

此外，本文结合对学生和教师的访谈结果，分析高三学生在概率解题中存在的问题及 原因。研究表明，高三学生在解概率题中存在的问题有：概率中的基本概念不够清晰、概 率模型的识别不够灵活、概率公式的运用不够熟练、计算排列组合数时容易出错、有关情 境下的概率题出错率高、概率解答题的步骤不够熟练等。同时，笔者结合访谈和调查，认为可将概率解题出错的原因总结为学生学习、学生的情感态度、解题环节、教师教学这四 个方面，其原因包括概率基础知识不扎实、计算排列组合数的能力较差、缺少良好的概率 解题习惯、缺少对概率解题过程的检验、缺少对概率解题的自信心、教师的概率授课能力 存在不足等。最后，笔者根据调查分析的结果，对高三学生和教师提出了一些学习方法和 教学建议。

As one of the four topics in the Probability and Statistics curriculum, probability not only covers most of the content of this topic, but also closely related to the mathematical content of the other three topics, which shows the status of probability in senior secondary mathematics. From the mathematical question types in the last five years' GCE Papers, the types of questions and scores on probability knowledge tested are relatively stable, and more emphasis is placed on testing students' ability to solve comprehensive probability problems. Probability knowledge points are relatively abstract and comprehensive, and it is inevitable that students will make some errors in solving probability problems. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the current situation of senior students in solving probability problems and to study their problems in solving probability problems and their causes.

The available literature on probability research has focused on studies of secondary school students' cognitive levels of probability learning, studies of secondary school students' probability learning errors, and studies of teachers' probability teaching. Although there are more studies on the current situation of high school students' problem solving ability, there are still relatively few studies that combine probability and problem solving ability. In this paper, senior students are chosen as the target population to conduct a quantitative and qualitative analysis of their probability problem solving, followed by an attribution analysis and finally some suggestions.

This study used literature research, testing and interview methods to investigate the current situation of senior students regarding solving probability problems and to summarize the current situation in four aspects: basic knowledge, problem solving methods, written expression and emotional attitude. The study found that the current situation of senior students in solving probability problems: most senior students were able to solve probability problems without losing marks, but some other students had the following situations: (1)errors in solving probability problems due to incomplete knowledge of probability; (2)difficulties still existed in identifying probability models; (3)marks were lost due to a lack of rigour in the process ofsolving probability problems; (4)they were easily intimidated in the face of probability problems and lack of self-confidence.

In addition, the results of the interviews with students and teachers were combined to analyze the problems and causes of probability problem solving among senior students. The study showed that the problems that senior students had in solving probability problems included: the basic concepts in probability were not clear enough, the identification of probability models was not flexible enough, the use of probability formulas was not proficient enough, mistakes were easily made when calculating the number of permutations and combinations, the error rate in probability problems in relevant contexts was high, and the process of probability solution problems was not rigorous enough. The reasons for this include the lack of basic knowledge of probability, poor ability to calculate the number of permutations and combinations, lack of good probability solving habits, lack of testing of the probability solving process, lack of self-confidence in probability solving, and lack of teachers' probability teaching skills. The author's analysis is based on the findings of the survey. Lastly, according to the results of the survey and analysis, the author proposes some learning methods and teaching suggestions for senior students and teachers.