中国是人口众多而资源相对缺乏的国家，粮食作为满足人们基本需求和国民经济发展的基础性资源，其重要性显而易见。多年以来，虽然河北省粮食生产取得了较大发展，但产业化、集约化水平低，投入不足以及水资源匮乏等一些不利因素仍然制约着全省粮食生产，作为全国粮食主产省，其生产能力的高低，对于提高全国粮食总水平至关重要。因此，论文从稳步增加粮食总量，满足社会发展需求角度出发，重点研究了粮食生产能力水平、发展变化，并提出了一些对策建议。建国以来，河北省粮食生产取得了长足发展，虽然受经济发展对耕地的挤压作用，粮食种植面积呈现减少的趋势，但粮食总产量总体呈现不断增加的态势，波动发展特征比较明显。通过主因子分析，影响全省粮食播种面积的因素主要有资源政策49.1%、成本收益22.6%、比较效益16.3%、财政投入5.5%；影响全省粮食单产的因素主要有科技进步82.5%、气候8.3%、人力投入5.9%，虽然存在着一些不利因素，有时甚至负面影响较大，但是，河北省在粮食生产上也存在和积累了一些潜在资源和优势，粮食发展前景较为广阔。论文详细分析了生产能力的本质特征和内涵，提出了单位耕地粮食生产能力的概念及其计算方法，在计算1990、2008年粮食生产能力数据基础上，利用地理信息系统空间分析工具，制作了全省分地区粮食生产能力分布图，并深入分析全省粮食生产能力水平、时空分布特征以及变化规律，具体表现为几个方面：南部高北部低、发展极不平衡、高产区域小而集中、环京津地区生产能力偏低以及张家口地区粮食发展后劲不足五大特征。同时，提出了有效提升全省粮食生产能力的对策建议，包括加快粮食产业科技转化、节约资源提高效率、稳定农民生产热情、生产能力区域优化、增加粮食生产投入共五个方面内容，为加快粮食生产发展提供参考依据。论文实现了粮食生产能力概念由抽象到具体、由理论研究到量化分析的突破，为粮食生产能力这一指标由理论研究走向实践应用提供了一些具有参考价值的观点和方法。在粮食问题研究上，充分利用了地理信息分析工具，相对于传统方法，进一步增强了论文的直观性、全面性和准确性，为今后粮食问题的进一步深入研究拓宽了思路、积累了经验。

China is a country with large population and lack of resources. Because the food is the basic resources of people's needs and development of the national economy, it is very importance obviously. Over the years, although the grain production in Hebei province has achieved great development, but low level of industrialization and intensive, insufficient investment, shortage of water resources and some other negative factors still restrict this province's grain production. As the major grain producing province in China, its production capacity level is vital to improve the whole country's grain level. Therefore, for increasing the grain outputs and meeting the needs of social development, the paper researchs the grain production capacity level and development mainly, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.Since the founding of new China, grain production in Hebei province have gained great progress, although extrusion on farmland by the effect of economic development, grain’s planting areas showed a decreasing trend, but the total grain outputs showed a increasing trend, development characteristics were obvious fluctuation. By the principal factor analysis, the primary factors affecting the grain sown area are resource policy 49.1%, cost income 22.6%, compare benefit 16.3%, financial investment 5.5%. the primary factors affecting grain yields per unit area are the progress of science and technology 82.5%, climate 8.3%, human investment 5.9%. Although there are some negative factors, sometimes even larger negative impact, however, Hebei province has accumulated some potential resources and advantages in food production. The development prospect of grain production is broad.The paper analyses the essential characteristics and connotation of production capacity, put forwards the concept of grain production capacity of unit cultivated land and its calculation method. On the basis of the grain production capacity of 1990 and 2008, by geographic information system spatial analysis tools, the paper makes area distribution map of grain production capacity all the province, analyzes the level of production ability, spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of whole province grain and change law deeply, containing the following respects: South High North low, development is not extremely balanced, the high yield region is small and concentrated, production capacity around Beijing and Tianjin area is low，the potential development of in Zhangjiakou area is insufficient. At the same time, the paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote the province's grain production capacity effectively, including of speeding up the food science and technology transformation, saving resources to improve efficiency, stabling enthusiasm of farmer’s production, area optimization to production capacity, increasing investment of grain production. The paper provides a reference basis for accelerating the development of grain production. The paper realizes the breakthrough of grain production capacity from abstract to concrete，from theory research to quantitative analysis. It also provide some useful ideas and methods for grain production capacity from the theory into practice. In the study of the grain problems, making full use of the geographic information analysis tools, comparing with the traditional methods, it impoves intuition, comprehensiveness and accuracy, broadens the thinking and accumulates experience for the further study in the future grain problems.