中文题名: | 国际能源价格波动对中国宏观经济影响的驱动机制 |
姓名: | |
学科代码: | 020102 |
学科专业: | |
学生类型: | 硕士 |
学位: | 经济学硕士 |
学位年度: | 2014 |
校区: | |
学院: | |
研究方向: | 宏观经济 |
第一导师姓名: | |
第一导师单位: | |
提交日期: | 2014-06-09 |
答辩日期: | 2014-05-27 |
外文题名: | THE DRIVE MECHANISIM OF INTERNATIONAL RESOURCES PRICES ON CHINA'S MACRO-ECONOMY |
中文摘要: |
随着中国工业化进程的不断推进,能源进口比重逐年增高,国际能源价格波动对我国经济的影响逐渐显现,研究国际能源价格波动对我国宏观经济的驱动机制以及影响有着重要的现实意义。本文构建的动态随机一般均衡模型,在引入能源要素的同时,加入了金融加速器机制。同时为了更好的分析与拟合时间序列数据,本文加入多种冲击与粘性信息,并采用贝叶斯估计对模型参数校准。 研究结果显示,国际能源价格冲击对我国经济波动产生负面影响,主要对产出、投资影响较大。其次,国际能源价格冲击对经济造成的周期波动较生产率、货币、价格加成、资本成本调整冲击要长。另外,能源价格波动只对经济短期运行产生影响,而长期企业可通过重新配置要素份额实现最优化,模型最终从偏离状态回到原始均衡状态。
﹀
|
外文摘要: |
As the ongoing industrialization of China has been improving the proportion of resource importing, the variation of international resource prices have gained larger influence on the economy of China. Research on the impact of international resource prices on the economy of China plays an important practical role. This paper focus on the driving mechanism of international resource on our country’s macroeconomy through constructing an DSGE model with the financial accelerator. Meanwhile, to better analysis and cope with the time series data, this paper will introduce variance impacts and sicknesses, and calibrate the parameters with Baysien estimation.This research shows that, the volatility of China’s macro-economy is mainly caused by the impact of productivity, the impact of price adding and the impact of asset cost adjustment, but not the monetary impact. The impact of international resource price will negatively influence China’s macro-economy, mainly on output and investment. Second, the impact of international resource will have a long effect on the economy of China compared to productivity, money, price adding, and asset cost adjustment. Besides, energy price fluctuations could only affect the economic for short runs. Firms will redistribute their resources to regain the optimization in the long run, so the model will go back to its equilibrium from deviation.
﹀
|
参考文献总数: | 28 |
馆藏号: | 硕020102/1402 |
开放日期: | 2014-06-09 |