近百年来全球气候的持续变化，特别是全球气温的升高，被归因于人类活动造成的温室气体的排放。以减排为目的的国际谈判的核心问题就是根据“共同而有区别的责任”原则为各国确定减排责任，因此对气候变化的历史责任进行归因成为亟待解决的关键问题。本论文首先利用最新的地球系统模式CESM (Community Earth System Model) 和BNU-ESM (Beijing Normal University—Earth System Model)，设计历史责任的归因试验方案，定量区分发达国家和发展中国家自工业革命以来的碳排放对历史气候变化的影响。其次，由于国际贸易带来的碳转移问题引起了对于“消费者买单”还是“污染者买单”的原则的争议，因此基于考虑了排放转移的消费碳排放清单，本论文进一步探讨了过去16年国际贸易带来的碳排放转移对气候变化历史责任归因的影响，以及对《京都议定书》第一承诺期潜在减缓效力的可能影响。最后，针对2011年德班气候大会以来对以往历史责任归因提出的部分质疑，本论文研究了近期的碳排放趋势和其他重要的温室气体对气候变化历史责任归因的影响。通过上述研究，我们试图客观定量地为气候变化的历史责任归因及其在气候谈判中的应用提供一定的参考。本论文的主要结论如下：1. 对近百年的全球升温，海洋暖化以及北半球海冰消融，发达国家和发展中国家的历史责任分别是53%−87%和13%−44%；消除了人口差异后的发达国家和发展中国家对气候变化的人均历史责任分别是87%−94%和6%−13%。尽管模式本身的特点和模式之间的差异造成责任归因的结果存在一定的不确定性，但总体来看，发达国家历史时期的工业碳排放仍然是过去百年全球气候变化的主要原因。而且，从整层大气CO2浓度分布的变化和各区域气候变化的幅度来看，气候变化越显著的地区其气候系统对排放情景的敏感性越高。因而，发达国家历史时期的碳排放也是造成近百年气候变化空间异质性的主要原因。此外，历史时期发达国家占主导的工业碳排放对全球碳汇固碳量的增加起到了主要作用。这虽然减小了 (8%−10%) 发达国家的历史责任，但造成全球碳汇的固碳效率降低，可能减小未来长期的固碳量，进而加剧全球增暖的程度。2. 基于消费碳排放，发达国家和发展中国家1990−2005年的碳排放对气候变化的历史责任分别是53%−59%和41%−47%。与同时期生产排放驱动下的历史责任相比，发达国家将其3%−5%的排放历史责任转移到了发展中国家。而且，如果基于消费排放清单设定《京都议定书》第一承诺期的减排目标，或者说在《京都议定书》中严格控制碳泄漏，那么《京都议定书》的减缓效力将提高4.3%−5.2%。但是对发达国家和发展中国家来说，排放转移并没有显著改变排放造成的气候变化，这可能与模拟时间短以及两个模式的气候敏感度较低有关。此外，碳排放的转移改变了全球碳排放的分布格局，进而造成中纬度地区陆地碳吸收增强，低纬度区域陆地碳吸收减弱。3. 包含了近期的人为工业碳排放趋势，将1850−2005年的历史责任归因试验延长到2011年后，CESM模式的模拟结果表明发达国家和发展中国家对工业革命以来气候变化的贡献率分别是55%−66%和34%−45%，与2005年为时间节点计算的结果差别较小（CESM模拟的发达国家和发展中国家工业碳排放的历史责任分别是57%−68%和32%−43%）。因此，近期的碳排放趋势对气候变化历史责任归因的影响很小。4. 综合气候系统各圈层典型的变化，对1850年以来的全球温度升高、辐射变化，海洋暖化、北半球海冰减少，积雪消融和冻土退化，发达国家由于CO2，CH4和N2O三种温室气体排放的历史责任是53%−88%，发展中国家的历史责任是12%−47%。与CESM模拟的只基于工业碳排放的历史责任相比，两个国家集团的历史责任差别减小了0%−5%。这是由于历史时期发展中国家的CH4排放量要高于发达国家造成的。但总的来看，包含了几种最为主要的温室气体后，发达国家仍然是观测到的20世纪全球变化的主要贡献者；并且历史时期气候系统各圈层典型变化的空间异质性也主要是对发达国家温室气体排放的响应。

Continuous climate change, especially the global warming, in the last hundred years is mainly attributed to human-made greenhouse gas emissions. One of the key issue of international climate negotiations is to formulate emissions reduction targets for all countries based on the principle of “Common but Differentiated Responsibilities”. However, formulation of reasonable emissions reduction targets relies on quantitative attribution of developed and developing countries’ responsibilities to historical climate change. In this study, we carry out a set of numerical experiments with the state-of-the-art earth system models―CESM (Community Earth System Model) and BNU-ESM (Beijing Normal University−Earth System Model)―to distinguish the climatic impacts due to the carbon emissions from developed and developing countries. In addition, the carbon leakage caused by international trade leads to arguments that whether consumers or polluters should pay for the consequences of climate changes. Therefore, using consumption-based carbon inventories that contain transfer emissions, we further investigate the impacts of transfer emissions due to international trade for the period of 1990−2005 on the attribution of historical responsibility and on the potential effectiveness of the first phase of Kyoto protocol. Finally, in the light of some issues posed by the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP), we study the influences of recent carbon emission trends and other important greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the attribution of developed and developing countries’ historical responsibilities. Through this study we attempt to shed light on the attribution of historical responsibility for climate change and on climate negotiations in a more comprehensive and integrated view. The main conlusions are as follows.1. Simulations with two earth-system models (CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed (developing) countries contribute approxiamtely 53%–87% (13%–47%) to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction for the period of 1850–2005. Considering the national population differences, the per capita historical responsibility of developed and developing countries is 87%−94% and 6%−13%, respectively. From the perspective of atmospheric CO2 concentration and regional climate changes, regions where significant climate change occurs are more sensitive to emission scenarios. Thus carbon emissions from developed countries are the main reason for the spatial heterogeneity of climate change in the 20th century. In addition, large emissions from developed world increase the carbon sequestration of global carbon sinks, which reduces the responsibility of developed countries (8%–10%). However, it decreases the efficiency of the global carbon sinks, which may affect the long-term carbon sequestration and exacerbate global warming in the future.2. Simulations with CESM and BNU-ESM models indicate that developed (developing) countries’ consumption-based emissions contribute approximately 53%–59% (41%–47%) to the global CO2 concentration rise and the associated radiative forcing from 1990 to 2005. Compared with the results based on production inventory, 3%–5% of responsibility for climate change over the 1990–2005 period has been transferred from developed world to developing word through the carbon leakage. In addition, if emission reduction targets in Kyoto protocol are formulated according to consumption-based emissions (or carbon leakage is tightly controlled), the mitigation effect of Kyoto protocol will increase by 4.3%–5.2%。However, transfer emissions have little influence on the climate change caused by carbon emissions of developed/developing world, which may be related to the short simulation time and low sensitivity of CESM and BNU-ESM models. In addition, the transfer emissions change the global patterns of carbon emissions, which strengthen (weaken) the terrestrial carbon uptake in mid-latitude (low-latitude) regions.3. Considering recent trends (2005–2011) of anthropogenic industrial carbon emissions, results from CESM model indicate that developed countries and developing countries contribute approximately 55%–66% and 34%–45% to the global climate change by 2011, respectively. These results are almost as the same as the responsibilities of developed (57%–68%) and developing (32%–43%) countries if we take year 2005 as the timeline. Therefore, recent trends of carbon emissions have little impact on the attribution of developed and developing countries historical responsibility for climate change. 4. Based on several important anthropogenic GHGs emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O), simulations with CESM demonstrate that developed (developing) countries contribute approximately 53%–88% (12%–47%) to the global temperature rise, the reduction of long wave fluxes at the top of atmosphere, upper ocean warming, sea-ice reduction, snow cover and permafrost degradation by 2005. Compared with the simulations in which only CO2 is taken as the attribution index, the differences in historical responsibilities between developed and developing countries become smaller（0%−5%）, which may be arisen from the larger emissions of CH4 by developing countries. However, considering several important GHGs, developed world is still the major contributor to the observed climate change in the 20th century. And the spatial heterogeneity of climate change in each spheres of the climate system has make response to GHGs emissions of developed world.