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中文题名:

 数字经济对成渝城市群经济韧性的影响研究    

姓名:

 陈要函    

保密级别:

 公开    

论文语种:

 chi    

学科代码:

 025200    

学科专业:

 应用统计    

学生类型:

 硕士    

学位:

 应用统计硕士    

学位类型:

 专业学位    

学位年度:

 2024    

校区:

 珠海校区培养    

学院:

 统计学院    

研究方向:

 数据科学与管理    

第一导师姓名:

 杜勇宏    

第一导师单位:

 统计学院    

提交日期:

 2024-06-11    

答辩日期:

 2024-05-25    

外文题名:

 STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF DIGITAL ECONOMY ON THE ECONOMIC RESILIENCE OF CHENGDU-CHONGQING URBAN AGGLOMERATION    

中文关键词:

 成渝城市群 ; 经济韧性 ; 数字经济 ; 中介机制 ; 空间溢出效应    

外文关键词:

 Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration ; Economic resilience ; Digital economy ; Intermediary mechanism ; Spatial spillover effect    

中文摘要:

在新发展形势下,一方面数字技术高速发展,成为推动高质量发展的有力工具,另一方面危机与冲击在发展之路上无处不在,随时可能挑战地区韧性的底线,这使得数字经济与城市经济韧性之间的联系愈加紧密。西南地区是我国内陆发展高地之一,而成渝城市群是其核心区域,担任着政策先行者和发展领头羊的重要角色。对该城市群的两者之间影响机制的研究除了丰富相关文献内容外,还有助于该区域相关政策和发展路线的制定,并为整个西南地区提供参考。因此,将成渝城市群作为研究地区,将时间区间定为2011-2021年,采用理论和实证结合的方式进行数字经济对成渝城市群经济韧性的影响研究。

在借鉴相关理论和研究经验的基础上,提出研究假设,确定研究所需变量及其含义,并使用熵权法和线性插值法对原始数据进行预处理。实证检验中第一步,利用固定效应模型研究数字经济对成渝城市群经济韧性的直接影响,发现数字经济对该地区经济韧性及三个维度的能力都有显著的增强作用。其次,将该城市群分为中心城市和非中心城市进行固定效应回归,发现对于中心城市,数字经济对经济韧性的增强效应强于非中心城市,且政府干预度对两者经济韧性的影响起着相反的作用,即中心城市更需要自由市场带来的良性竞争和科技创新,非中心城市更需要政府相关政策的帮扶和引导。然后,通过对预设模型的逐步回归探究假设路径是否存在,证实了创业活跃度、社会保障水平和人才资源潜质的中介作用。且根据系数大小可知,三者对经济韧性的影响程度呈递减的排列顺序。最后,通过空间自相关性检验,发现成渝城市群数字经济和经济韧性具有一定程度的空间相关性,利用经济距离矩阵下的空间杜宾模型进行回归发现,数字经济除了可以提高本城市经济韧性外,还对周边城市有明显的正向溢出效应。

由此可见,为了更好地增强成渝地区数字经济对于城市经济韧性的积极效应,一方面应加强各个城市自身的建设,包括加快数字化政务和社会保障系统建设、加大数字技术相关科研和教育的经费投入、制定有利于数字经济相关企业发展的优惠政策等,坚持在快速推动发展的同时不忘巩固和加强自身韧性;另一方面,出台更多的政策和指导方针加快成渝地区一体化,明确成渝两个城市的核心地位,在双城互利互惠的基础下最大化成渝对于该地区社会稳定和经济发展的辐射及领头作用,坚持两点带动全局的发展路线。

外文摘要:

In the new development situation, on the one hand, the rapid development of digital technology has become a powerful tool to promote high-quality development, and on the other hand, crises and shocks are everywhere on the road to development, which may challenge the bottom line of regional resilience at any time, resulting in an increasingly close link between the digital economy and the resilience of urban economy. Southwest China is one of the inland development highlands, and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is its core region, which plays an important role as the policy forerunner and development leader. In addition to enriching the relevant literature content, the research on the influence mechanism of the digital economy and the resilience of urban economy in the urban agglomeration is conducive to the formulation of relevant policies and development routes in the region, and provides reference for the entire southwest region .Therefore, Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is taken as the research area, the time interval is set as 2011-2021, and the impact of digital economy on the economic resilience of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is studied by combining theory and empirical methods.

Based on the relevant theories and research experience, the research hypothesis is put forward, the variables and their meanings are determined, and the raw data is preprocessed by entropy weight method and linear interpolation method. The first step of the empirical test is to study the direct impact of digital economy on the economic resilience of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration by using the fixed-effect model, and find that the digital economy has a significant enhancement effect on the economic resilience and the capacity of the three dimensions of the region. Secondly, the fixed effect regression is carried out by dividing the urban agglomeration into central cities and non-central cities, and it is found that for central cities, the enhancement effect of digital economy on economic resilience is stronger than that of non-central cities, and the degree of government intervention has the opposite effect on the economic resilience of the two cities, that is, central cities need more healthy competition and scientific and technological innovation brought by the free market. Non-central cities need more help and guidance from relevant government policies. Then, through the stepwise regression of the preset model, we explore whether the hypothesis path exists, and confirm the mediating role of entrepreneurial activity, social security level and talent resource potential. According to the coefficients, it can be seen that the influence degree of the three factors on the economic resilience shows a decreasing order. Finally, through the spatial autocorrelation test, it is found that the digital economy and economic resilience of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration have a certain degree of spatial correlation. The spatial Durbin model under the economic distance matrix is used for regression, and it is found that the digital economy can not only improve the economic resilience of the city, but also has a significant positive spillover effect on the surrounding cities.

 In order to enhance the positive effect of the digital economy on the resilience of urban economy in Chengdu-Chongqing area better, on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of each city itself, including accelerating the construction of digital government affairs and social security systems, increasing the investment in digital technology-related scientific research and education, and formulating preferential policies conducive to the development of digital economy-related enterprises. While advancing development at a rapid pace, we should not forget to consolidate and strengthen our resilience. On the other hand, more policies and guidelines should be issued to accelerate the integration of Chengdu-Chongqing region, clarify the core status of Chengdu-Chongqing cities, maximize the radiation and leading role of Chengdu-Chongqing for social stability and economic development in the region on the basis of mutual benefit of the two cities, and adhere to the two points to drive the overall development line.

参考文献总数:

 38    

馆藏地:

 总馆B301    

馆藏号:

 硕025200/24009Z    

开放日期:

 2025-06-11    

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